It’s a little dramatic and cliched but there is no other way to frame what lies ahead as the All Blacks’ moment of truth.
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Having won three successive July Tests under new coach Dave Rennie, the All Blacks now face an eight-game tour of South Africa featuring four matches against the Stormers, Sharks, Bulls and Lions, and four Tests against the Springboks – three in the Republic and one in Baltimore, USA.
The tour is being marketed under the tagline The Greatest Rivalry and is the focal point of the 2026 season. It’s a nostalgic throwback and a test-the-waters play to see if there is fan appetite for an old-fashioned tour of this nature.
But while the tour may lead to further recalibration of the international programme in the southern hemisphere, it will have the much greater, obvious short-term significance of providing the All Blacks with precise information about where they truly sit in the world order, how effective the component parts of their game are and how much has to be rebuilt or refined before the World Cup next year.
With the greatest respect to France, Italy and Ireland who were all beaten by New Zealand in July, none posed anywhere near the same intensity of challenge as playing the Springboks in South Africa.
France, as well as they played, were without their star contingent of Toulouse and Montpellier players, Italy were defiant but without the quality they needed, and Ireland looked flat and a little out of sorts at the end of a long season for them.
The All Blacks showed they are an improving team, but as Rennie says: “It’s a different beast, South Africa. They put a B side out last week that beat an excellent Scotland team.”
And he is 100 per cent right about South Africa. The Boks have only lost four of their 32 Tests since winning the 2023 World Cup and are currently on a 12-game unbeaten run.
The last team to beat them was the All Blacks last September at Eden Park, but that feels like a long, long time ago. The following week after losing in Auckland, the Springboks inflicted a record defeat on New Zealand
They have, to some extent, re-written the rules of Test rugby in that they can pick just about any combination from 50 players and still be lethal.
They also have such a vast arsenal of weaponry to make them an impossibly difficult team to shut down, and everyone acknowledges right now, playing the Springboks in South Africa is harder and unlike any other challenge in the global game.
The last team to beat them was the All Blacks last September at Eden Park, but that feels like a long, long time ago. The following week after losing in Auckland, the Springboks inflicted a record defeat on New Zealand – 43-10 – and perhaps illustrated the true size of the gap between the teams.
Since then, the All Blacks have ousted Scott Robertson as head coach, brought in Rennie and his new crew of assistants and set about trying to give the team a more structured attack, a stronger identity and a more empowered and mature leadership group.
After three games there is no doubt the All Blacks have improved. They have the multi-option attack they were looking for – an ability to use power athletes such as Patrick Tuipulotu and Asafo Aumua to smash round the edge of rucks or have a legion of runners work off the exceptional distribution and decision-making prowess of Jordie Barrett.
They also now understand how to use a kicking strategy to implement their running game – that is, using the boot to pressure the opposition into kicking it back to create counter-attack opportunities.
The pace they played at against Ireland was at times off the charts and the 40-21 defeat of the world’s number three team was done with enough brutality in the collision, soft skills and strategic application that the All Blacks look a significantly better chance of doing well in South Africa than they did 10 months ago.
“I’m really excited,” Rennie said of the upcoming tour. “We’ve worked hard and put a lot of detail into our game. The boys have embraced it.
“We’re in a good spot. It will be nice to have a week off for most of the guys who have had big years, then we’re into it for seven more weeks.
“We’ll go over there and give it our best shot. We’ll come out of Africa, regardless of results, in a much better place. We’ll know a lot more about the boys and our game, the detail within that. We’ll be able to hone our culture. We’ve got a captive audience for seven weeks, so we’ll make the most of that.”
There is little doubt the Boks will weaponise their scrum for the series – ramp up the horsepower, load the bench with seven forwards and try to elongate each set-piece to win penalties.
Rennie’s excitement about what lies ahead is understandable, but the All Blacks have come out of their July programme with several questions about their readiness to play the Springboks hanging over them.
The first is the quality of their set-piece work and particularly, the robustness of their scrum. The question has to be asked whether the All Blacks have the depth of personnel, the technical expertise and mental strength to effectively scrummage against the Boks for 80 minutes.
There is little doubt the Boks will weaponise their scrum for the series – ramp up the horsepower, load the bench with seven forwards and try to elongate each set-piece to win penalties.
It’s an age-old formula that has worked so well for them. Forget how they played in July – when they encounter their oldest foe, the DNA kicks in and they will see the scrum as the key battleground. There is no escaping the cold, hard fact the All Blacks can’t fall victims to their power game if they want to win the series.
The All Blacks had parity with the French scrum, got nothing at all out of the Italians and were marginally on top of the Irish, but never managed to really buckle them. They seem to have settled on Ethan de Groot as the leading loosehead, with Xavier Numia behind him and on the other side, Tyrel Lomax and Fletcher Newell are one and two. An injury to Codie Taylor has thrown a little doubt on who the two hookers will be, but Aumua and Samisoni Taukei’aho bring scrummaging heft as well as ball-carrying punch.
There is a quartet of powerful locks in Tuipulotu, Tupou Vaa’i, Sam Darry and Fabian Holland if he recovers from injury, and Josh Lord showed in July he is not a scrummaging lightweight.
But is there enough muscle, nous and raw desire in the tight five to at least ensure the scrum is a steady and reliable platform and not a source of South African penalties? It feels like an injury to any of the four first choice props and the All Blacks might struggle to keep their scrum competitive. The next cabs off the rank are George Bower at loosehead and Pasilio Tosi at tighthead – neither of whom had much game time in July. Given the likelihood of injuries in South Africa, these two could easily find themselves involved in the series and right now it’s the great unknown whether the All Blacks will be able to survive the ‘Bomb Squad’.
The other unknown is whether their defensive structure will be smart enough to shut down a South African team that can hammer the fringes with a legion of oversized ball carriers, but also now play with width and get the ball to a back three with searing pace and agility.
Against France the All Blacks were mostly passive and against Italy, they didn’t get the double-up numbers in the tackle they were hoping for. The performance against Ireland was more physical and better executed strategically with the plan to push up from the outside and cut off Ireland’s pass to the wings. There was a bit more bite in the collisions, too, with Ireland’s big ball carriers unable to get much joy when they tried to run over defenders in the middle of the field.
“If I can compare where our defence was against France compared to where it is tonight [against Ireland], Tana [defence coach Umaga] and his group have done a massive amount of work and we’re starting to get a bit of a response there,” Rennie said.
Other facets of the All Blacks’ game will be tested by South Africa more rigorously than they were in July. The Boks will see if the All Blacks can catch high balls, if Luke Jacobson is as tough as Rennie says he is and whether Ruben Love can cope with a few Springbok forwards getting in his face.
The reality for the All Blacks is everything they know may have to be reconsidered and revamped in South Africa as the Boks could find faultlines and expose all sorts of previously unrealised weaknesses.
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Yet another game ruined by TMO garbage decisions, interference during the game.
How many refs do we need.
TMO should stay off line until asked by the on field referees.
There is such a thing as time and motion which is not taken into account when incidents happen!!
Wake up Rugby your destroying a great game.
Thats a great and balanced assessment but was a little amused by the tone that suggests ABs are doing these improvements for the first time! Rennie is restoring cohesive AB rugby but think this tour has come too soon into his tenure as in hindsight NZ wasted 2 years on the Razor project. Don't think we'll win any of the 4 tests though hopefully a couple will be close but agree regardless of results we will end up in a better place. Rassie is a genius but other coaches can beat him when they get it right.
I believe Rennie is aware of the threat by his recall to Lord, Holland, Parker, Blackadder and Moorby to arguably meet the relentlesbig Boks. The possible adding Savea and later Du Plessis to the forwards may considered a weight disadvantage facing EE, PSDT, Marks, the Wiese Bros or the rest of the SA “Nefilims”
Why do NZ journalists seem to spend all their time trying to pull the ABs and the coaching staff down? This is not as bad as the dribble put out by others, who I would like to mention but will get banned if I do, but seems to raise the Boks into god like status that no one can compete with. While Rassie used a lot of players in the games so far and yes he won well against Wales and Scotland they are a long way below SA in the world standings so surely that was expected. For me some of their games were not that good and they showed they have a lot of work to do if they bring some of those players against higher ranked teams.
And don’t give me that BS about France having a B or a C team that NZ played against. They have the best depth in world rugby and every team they put on the field is up there with their best players.
Sure this tour will be a hard test for NZ, but it will also be a hard test for SA and the biggest issue NZ has to face is that SA have been under Rassie and the coaches for a lot longer and so are probably more aligned. I’m pretty confident that this coaching team will go well. We’ve already seen a much better alignment than we saw under the last coaching team and they will only get better.
Pretty good piece.
Your silly derogatory comments are pathetic. Apparently discussing rugby is beyond you.
63-43….. STATS
Stats & facts are never silly, if you understand it. 😂
You do that… 👍🏻
Enjoy your silly stuff. Ill watch rugby and try to enjoy that.
Clearly you have NO clue so what's the point?
I'm guessing that second grader just laughed at you and walked away!😂 Try again but this time first ask what “relevance” means. I know it's a big word but if the 2nd grader speak slowly and clearly you might just get it. I definitely won't put money on it though! 🙄🤦🏼
This will be brutal but uncompetitive
Boarboys will brutalise the ABs
30 point margins and 4-0
Not watchable
Go put money on it the odds paying on that happening would be sky high ..or should say “crazy” like your take
You glaze over the Boks and throw out claims like they've “rewritten the rules of international rugby” and other such grandiose ovations but you're forgetting one important fact: the All Blacks are the one constant team at the top of world rugby. They’ve always been there and they always will be there.
Having the depth that the Boks do now which allows them to play with almost any combination of players and still achieve success is something that the All Blacks and New Zealand rugby in general used to be known for. It was the singular key advantage they had over everyone else.
They've had troubles that emerged just prior to COVID and that were exacerbated by the isolation which had seen them taper off since their last major high point all the way back in 2018, their last truly dominant season.
They then struggled through the 2019 World Cup and for a number of years thereafter have found themselves being increasingly challenged by all comers since. Making it all the way to the final in 2023 was a bit of good fortune and they very nearly achieved a crazy upset to win their fourth title.
And while most sides would gladly accept an annual record of 78%, the All Blacks aren't just any team. They have very high standards for themselves and based on what DR has been able to achieve with them so far one would say they are well placed at the moment to continue that upward trajectory and go better than the last 3.
To his credit, Rassie has never rested on his laurels and is always looking to evolve the South African game in order to stay ahead of everyone. And sometimes that doesn't quite achieve what they desire of themselves, ergo the disappointments last year in Joburg and Auckland.
But they haven't been tested against either of the sides that put them away last year and this tour will be as much a test for them as to their own position in world rugby as it will be for their erstwhile challengers.
Obviously, for both sides this will be the most comprehensive measure they will get as to what their respective chances are of going well at the World Cup next year since the universal expectation is that they will meet in the quarterfinals next year, assuming that both finish atop their respective pools.
Don't discount the effect of Jasper Wiese’s absence due to suspension in the losses vs the AB’s and Wallabies. The Boks were a totally different beast when Wiese laced up his boots in Wellington.
The All Blacks were sh$t last year and split their series 1-1 with the Springboks.
The All Blacks are a much team better this season and I expect the series will be a 2-2 draw.
I think this is a fair assessment overall, and I appreciate that it gives both teams the respect they've earned. It's refreshing to read an article that recognizes the challenge South Africa presents without dismissing the progress New Zealand has made under Dave Rennie.
Where I think the series will ultimately be decided is whether the All Blacks can consistently absorb the pressure that South Africa applies over 80 minutes. It's one thing to prepare for the Springboks' scrum, lineout and physicality; it's another to experience wave after wave of it, especially with fresh forwards and backs coming off the bench. That sustained intensity has been one of South Africa's greatest strengths over the last few years.
I also think it's easy to focus on the scrum alone, but today's Springboks are much more than a power side. They can play with width, kick intelligently, counter-attack from deep and adapt their approach depending on what's in front of them. That's probably what has made them so difficult to beat—they're no longer relying on one way of winning.
At the same time, it would be a mistake for South Africans to underestimate this All Blacks side. Rennie has clearly added more structure and clarity to their attack, and their confidence has grown throughout July. History has taught us that writing off New Zealand is rarely a wise idea.
That's what makes this series so compelling. Both teams have genuine strengths, both have questions still to answer, and I suspect we'll learn as much about the Springboks as we will about the All Blacks. Whatever happens, I hope it's remembered for the quality of the rugby, because the game is always better when its two greatest rivals bring out the best in each other.
Well said, really appreciated the tone of the article. Boks are kings of the castle but the all blacks are looking on the up, us kiwis shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves though!
Thr AB's or the Boks can be at their lowest and even ranked 10th losing against everyone, but when it's the AB’s and Boks, it will always be war. This is both teams tests that will declare if they World Cup ready. There is no other teams in the world that can bring out whatever weaknesses each side have, and with 4 tests, and 4 provincial games, it will test the depth and quality of both teams to the ultimate limit.
The Boks depth is extremely deep. The series might be decided by depth issues because both teams are extremely tough and it will be a war of attrition, strength and mental strength. Expect injuries, this will be war as always.
This will always be the measure by which these teams will accept defeat. They are the ultimate rivals and no game is given as a win for either side, no matter who are ranked where, no matter the results of previous games. Both see red when they face each other and there will be no give in any player as they always give more to the Jersey when facing each other compared to any other nation. No disrespect meant to the other countries, it's just a fact.
It's why the name fit so well. Greatest Rivalry Tour
It will be a great series but as fans we need to remember the “Greatest Series” is a marketing gimmick. Whoever wins it is not guaranteed the World Cup in 2027 on a platter. Be wary of France in semi final and be wary of our teams (Boks, ABs and France) who have to go through a pretty arduous process for one of them to get to a final compared to what will be a relatively fresh Ireland or England who will most likely be the other finalist. There are many more twists and turns before 2027 rolls up and this incoming series is only the beginning
Yep WR done their best to try and ensure a an Ireland or England win. They should be ashamed of themselves but I guess the results are just getting embarrassing now.
One of the ‘twists and turns’ might be a loss by the ABs to Oz in the second pool game. That would put the ABs on the other side of the draw through quarters, semis etc. Imo that’s the ABs best chance of winning the RWC, emulating the Boks in 2019, who were soundly beaten by the ABs in the first round (and never had to play them again).
Of course its a marketing gimmick. This tour is foremost about making money.
The Greatest Rivalry Series will determine more than just which team has the best set pieces, style or cattle.
It will determine which team has the best coaching team.
With 3 tests and wins under Rennie’s belt to Rassie’s 56 test and 12 wins on the trot, on paper, it’s right that Rennie speaks with some humility.
Everyone expected Razor with his credentials to pitch up and play - and he did to the tune of a 74% return.
This isn’t about scrums and high ball dominance. Will Rennie and co. be able to outsmart Rassie and co. ?Who’ve had a lot more time at the job and time to do their homework? Settle systems, build relationships, study the opposition.
If the ABs win this series in SA it would rank among one of the greatest sporting achievements of all time. And would certainly spell the beginning of the end of the Rassie era.
Because the ABs would surely kick on from there to regain the spot they lost as the best rugby team on the planet.
The Greatest Rivalry Series will determine much, much more than just which team has the best set pieces, style or cattle.
Martin Devlin reckons they see this tour as more important to win than a World Cup. That's how much this means to them. Be sure the AB's is coming to SA for war. As a Saffas, I want to be confident, especially after beating them so regularly these days, but history is a caution to us all. I'll never underestimate any AB's team.
Been crunching numbers again HH and I do not think the ABs systems
are sufficiently developed to beat the Boks at this time. In reality the Boks are remarkably efficient and effective at scoring. They are well ahead of the ABs on most measures. Yes ofcourse the ABs have the potential to win. But given the way Rennie wants to play, it would require a massive output over the full 80 for it to succeed against the Boks who need about half the effort to win.
Heard Goldie say on TAB podcast Grooter is 6 kgs lighter than LY now that cannot be by accident I remember when they got him to lose some when he was close to 140 must be round the 130 now they will add both Norris Luaki and then Bell to the mob the front row stocks depth are fine for. R it’s more of a question of the front liners can they stay on point task at hand every scrum I’m hoping the mindset is far less panicked this year they gotta scrap and play with desperation but not scrappy snd desperate
If I was looking forward to spending weeks scrumming in South Africa I’d also be sh1tting myself to the tune of 6kg in body weight.