Why it doesn't matter who wins the Six Nations
England had put 50 points on France. Ireland had captured a second consecutive title. Scotland hadn’t won a game and took home the Wooden Spoon. It was the 2015 Six Nations.
Roughly six months later, that same England team failed to get out of their pool as the host country in the World Cup, losing to Wales and Australia. Ireland were ambushed by a rampant Argentina in a quarterfinal and Scotland, the side who couldn’t beat Italy, pushed the world number two Australian side to the brink of elimination in theirs and should’ve progressed to the semifinals if not for a refereeing blunder.
In 2011, England took home the Six Nations title but were left out at the quarterfinal stage, going down to that years’ runners-up France. Fourth-placed Wales went all the way to a semi-final, falling short to France who were eventual finalists.
In 2007, third-placed England were the best performing Northern Hemisphere side at that year’s World Cup, making the final on their quest to claim back-to-back World Cups.
It seems that Six Nations form can be thrown out the window when it comes to predicting how the Northern Hemisphere teams will fare at the Rugby World Cup.
It can be a ‘rough guide’ at best, and you have to take into consideration form over the previous couple of years. From this, we already know three teams, England, Ireland, and now Wales, are genuine contenders.
Whilst Scotland is capable of beating anyone on their day, they are more ‘spoilers’ at this point. They can ruin someone’s tournament by winning a knockout game but are they able to string three wins in a row together against Tier 1 competition? They have not done that once in 42 games over this World Cup cycle.
France has to be in the same category as Scotland at this stage, although you can never write them off. In the past, they haven’t been able to capitalise on big upset wins over the All Blacks to actually win the World Cup, still playing a ‘spoiler’ role.
Wales will now draw much attention to themselves after toppling England and completing a 12th-straight win, their best-ever run, but their chances of winning the World Cup are no better or no worse whether they win the Grand Slam or not.
Every Northern Hemisphere nation has to navigate the remainder of the club season and sit through a full off-season break over the summer and find a way to reach their ‘peak’ shortly after coming back from holiday-mode.
Many of the teams may be in top physical shape after pre-season conditioning and recovery but will be short on match fitness and continuity. There will be a couple of warm-up games where no one wants injuries but it will be the only hit-outs they get to find form.
From there they will be ‘dropped cold’ into a six-week tournament while the Southern counterparts will arrive at the tail-end of their season, with casualty wards of already injured players but battle-hardened teams.
The All Blacks have, after years of tinkering and failed campaigns, learned how to approach a World Cup year and enter the tournament in mid-September every four years in the ideal position to win it.
The meticulous planning begins at the start of the four-year cycle with squad building over the first three, before whittling down to a core squad for the final year. Every team does this, but it is the final run-in where the All Blacks have figured out what works best for them, finding the right balance of resting players and tailoring training for peak performance in October.
Even in pool play in 2015, Hansen admitted using watered-down game plans to hold some cards close to his chest. There was talk of deliberate over-training during pool play, playing fatigued, in order to ‘take the resistance off’ and explode through the rest of the knockout play.
The focus was firmly on, and planned for, peaking when it mattered. There was criticism of the team as they weren’t ‘winning by enough’, like in 2007 when they pasted Italy, Portugal and Romania but then failed to reach the intensity required against a Tier 1 nation in the quarterfinals.
It turned out they had a plan after all and it worked out for the second time in 2015.
For the Northern Hemisphere teams, finding the ultimate ‘launch’ into the World Cup after a summer break may not have been figured out yet. The 2015 result showed that they might need to change their approach. Some teams will suffer from a lack of depth and just horrid luck, but others may not enter with their best form trying to restart everything from square one in the season.
While the Six Nations is an esteemed prize in its own right, it will have little bearing in Japan. How they manage their off-season and plan the last moments before the storm is far more important than who takes home Six Nations glory in a few weeks when it comes to winning the Rugby World Cup.
Comments on RugbyPass
A wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
24 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
10 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to comments