Why a Wallabies win over the All Blacks wouldn't be a shock
The Wallabies were porous in Pretoria as Jones’ side mustered up a half-baked effort but after falling just short to Argentina, the situation is not as bad as the results suggest.
They showed enough improvement before an injury to Len Ikitau derailed their night. It cannot be understated just how much this one incident cost the Wallabies a fortnight ago.
Having entered the game with a 6-2 bench without outside back cover, they could not afford to lose their No 13. They did, just 15 minutes into the game.
They had to put a specialist flyhalf with all but 10 minutes of experience at the international level into the midfield for three quarters of a Test match.
Having Carter Gordon at No 12 hindered both their attacking plays and defensive structure, with a lack chemistry visible. None of that was Gordon’s fault, who came up with some miraculous second efforts and put on some punishing tackles.
But his defensive reads were understandably below par and there was no established connection with either Quade Cooper or Samu Kerevi as a unit. Cooper was off clearing rucks, Gordon was stepping on his toes in defence and Kerevi was shooting up out of the line unconnected. It was shoddy and messy.
Los Pumas took advantage as a result breaking through, and around, those channels multiple times.
To be clear, Carter Gordon is a hell of a prospect who will show this week what he is capable of in the No 10 jersey. He has the attacking game to cause the All Blacks serious headaches, with the ability to rip long passes, take the line on and ball play flat.
He should line up Richie Mo’unga early and bury him into the MCG turf with a decent shot under the ribs to remind the Crusader just exactly where he is. This isn’t going to be a walk in the park against Bernard Foley.
If Gordon can rattle Mo’unga early anything can happen. That cameo off the bench in Mendoza away from the safety of home was swept under the carpet. In front of 85,000 at the MCG there will be no place to hide.
Tate McDermott can play an up tempo game and there are plenty of threats on the end of the Wallabies backline in Marika Koroibete and Mark Nawaqanitawase.
The only question will be whether the ball gets past Jordan Petaia, an excellent ball carrier but far from a polished distributer. If Petaia plays like a centre and not like a wing, the Wallabies could turn it on.
The pack is decent with the return of Bell, and world class players in Skelton and Valetini, but there are big question marks over Tom Hooper at openside flanker, who has been brought in to spoil the All Blacks ball more after Argentina were able to operate with a pretty clean ruck.
The big-bodied Hooper has a lot to prove after his debut in South Africa. Fraser McReight, whilst not generating any turnover ball, made 19 from 19 tackles against the Pumas and fixed up a shoddy defensive unit. They set the line a lot faster, nailed the pods, and were a lot more organised with McReight.
McReight looked much better than Michael Hooper and leaving him out against the All Blacks looks like a mistake, especially if Tom Hooper whiffs again.
They’ve got calvary on the bench with Richie Arnold, Taniela Tupou and Rob Leota to bring impact.
Tupou was absolutely key in the last win over the All Blacks in 2020 in Brisbane, he came on late and blasted through some tired legs with devastating carries and won key penalties at scrum time.
The dynamic prop is a secret weapon who can turn the momentum in the Wallabies favour, particularly if the All Blacks have to rely on Ofa Tuungafasi and Nepo Laulala, two props who have been well below their best.
The Wallabies bench on paper looks like it can match New Zealand’s.
Should the All Blacks beat the Wallabies? Yes, they should, but it feels like that every time. It’s been three years since the last win.
They are 0-2 under Eddie Jones and need a bit of luck to fall their way, whilst the All Blacks have had a dream start. No injuries, no red cards. Everything has gone perfectly to plan.
They ran amok over Argentina in the first half up by 31-0 at halftime and a 20-minute blitz against the Boks with just about all the running put them to bed early. It’s all been smooth sailing.
The Wallabies will be reaching a stage of desperation. A good kind of desperation, with the hunger and resolve to avoid the humiliation of three straight losses for their big money coach.
You couldn’t possibly pick the Wallabies on logic. But sometimes logic goes out of the window.
A bit of bad luck going the All Blacks way with some red mist in Scott Barrett’s eyes perhaps, or Shannon Frizell going from hero to villian, someway, somehow.
Wouldn’t it be classic of Frizell to back up his stellar showing at Mt Smart with a clunker, or at least a disappointing one?
Don’t bet on it, but a Wallabies win at the ‘G’ wouldn’t be a shock.
Crazier things have happened than the All Blacks losing to the Wallabies in Australia in a World Cup year.
Comments on RugbyPass
I guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
41 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
2 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
41 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
41 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
2 Go to commentsLet’s not forget about Ardie Savea just yet.
4 Go to commentsThe URC and the Euro Championscup can’t run at the same time, basically dilutes both competitions.
1 Go to comments“While Sotutu should start at No.8 for the All Blacks against England, but it’s only in that arena that he can prove just how good he really is.” And that my friends is where simply hasnt shone despite multiple opportunities. Even in this performance you can see what did him in in the test arena..he almost always still runs at the opposition almost ramrod upright making him easier to stop than it should be.
4 Go to commentsShould have been 0-0 and a message from SR CEO to both teams - “don’t worry about turning up next year”.
4 Go to commentsGreat work Owen Franks. A great of this team, scoring his first try for the Crusaders since 2010.He was beaming, justifiably. A fine win, he and the rest did the job up front.
1 Go to commentsDanny Care. Lang in die tand.
1 Go to commentsBig empty stadium does nothing for atmosphere but munster are playing well with solid performance
1 Go to commentsYes, Fiji can win the World Cup! With that belief plus their christian faith🙏 and hard work it is achievable. Great article. Ian Duncan Fiji resident 1981-84
2 Go to commentsInteresting comments about Touch. England’s hosting the Touch World Cup this year and the numbers have exploded since their last World Cup in 2019, something like 70% more teams and 40 nations taking part. And England Touch have made a big thing about how many universities are in their BUCS University Touch Championship as well as Sport England membership. Can only see this growing even more domestically as more people become aware of it
10 Go to comments“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
4 Go to commentsThis game was just as painful as the Hurricanes game. It was real fork-in-the-eye stuff.
4 Go to comments