Wallabies' Rugby Championship report card: Heroics, outliers, and verdict

The stats, emotions, and some selections are all muddled for the Wallabies after a Rugby Championship where they ultimately missed a couple of golden opportunities to finally clinch some silverware.

The win at Ellis Park for the first time in 62 years is a height few would’ve dared to dream of heading into the TRC, but a lot of rugby has been played since that first, historic win in the middle of August.

The Wallabies and coach Joe Schmidt will lament their increasingly poor discipline throughout the competition, which may be their single greatest contributor to dropping games.

The bright spots throughout the TRC were enough to show what this team could be, but Schmidt would’ve hoped his young squad could’ve delivered more of them, more consistently, more than 18 months into his tenure.

The growing penalty ledger for the men in gold can be put down to referee interpretation and poor skill execution, with one or two brain explosions along the way, but overall, it must be said that the Wallabies’ inaccuracy across the park was their greatest thorn in their side.

At the start of the competition, the Wallabies looked capable of three wins against any of the opposition.

In hindsight, this now looks more like an outlier as opposed to a show of form, but pair this with the efforts throughout the British and Irish Lions tour, then the picture becomes rosier, and the Wallabies’ declining form during the TRC has a possible, reasonable explanation: exhaustion and a lack of experienced depth.

Now, it’s time to delve into their report card for the TRC and look at attack, defence, discipline, and set piece, with A, B, C, D being the measurements, with no + or – to be used.

Overall mark – C

Rugby Championship

P

W

L

D

PF

PA

PD

BP T

BP-7

BP

Total

1

South Africa

6

4

2

0

19

2

New Zealand

6

4

2

0

19

3

Australia

6

2

4

0

11

4

Argentina

6

2

4

0

10

Attack – B

The Wallabies’ attack has scored points from anywhere against every team in the TRC, and although they have been criticised for not having a clear attacking structure, this is incorrect.

The Wallabies attack narrowly, forwards and backs alike, punch through the middle until they spot a slow fold, then when they have massaged the opposition’s defence into a narrow, splintered line, it pulls wide either through a swing action from the backs or quick hands down the line with forwards playing key distribution roles to get the ball to width.

This cut the All Blacks up in the first 20 minutes in Perth and was also the reason the Wallabies scored many of their points in South Africa and against Argentina.

This Wallabies side has true X-factor, none can deny, and along with a better understanding of Schmidt’s system, paired with the ripening of talent, the Wallabies pose a counter-attacking threat to any team in the world.

The issues with their attack often began when they started their multi-phase raids from their own half.

Their inability to play territory, and to forgo putting oppositions back in their own half, meant the Wallabies were often missing the opportunity to squeeze penalties out of sides defending or clearing their own territory.

The Wallabies showed what an ideal attack launched from their own half should look like on several occasions throughout the TRC, but the fact is, too often, they lost possession or lacked a genuine exit option when they needed it.

Whether it was their good work in tight or their slick hands and finishing ability out wide, the Wallabies’ attack was good without being great due to the inaccuracies around the attacking breakdown and overzealous offloads or flick passes once half-breaks were made.

The Wallabies left a bunch of points out on the field in each of their six games, and they only have themselves, their decision-making, and work at the breakdown to blame.

Knowing they have more in them will be good fuel for the northern tour, but the players must bring a Test-match level mentality to each of their remaining games.

A lot has been written about the state of the No.10 stocks, but the truth is, the Wallabies have neither won nor lost their games this TRC season due to their No.10s.

Aside from James O’Connor’s shocker at Eden Park, if any fly-half had a 7/10 performance, then the Wallabies were in with a real shot due to the great work around the field from the other 14 men.

However, the Wallabies will benefit from having a Hunter Paisami, who can also ball-play as well as crash it up, in the No.12 jersey. Using our explosive wingers is a must.

Defence: C

At a glance, the Wallabies defended poorly, but digging a little deeper, it’s not as bad as the Wallabies’ defensive system haters would have you believe.

Chronologically, the Wallabies defended at 88 per cent at Ellis Park, 88 per cent in Cape Town, 87 per cent in Townsville, 87 per cent in Sydney, 84 per cent at Eden Park, and 83 per cent in Perth.

If we follow the same order of games, the Wallabies missed 22/157 tackles at Ellis Park, 15/113, 16/109, 25/165, 40/216, and 29/142 in Perth.

It stands to reason that their poorest defensive effort by a country mile came in the only game they had to make more than 200 tackles; it’s a true outlier in every sense.

This then prompts you to look at where the greatest missed opportunity came, and if you work off the adage “defence wins championships, attack decides by how much”, you’d have to say Cape Town really was the game where the Wallabies statistically measured up to one of rugby’s powerhouses, and let an opportunity slip.

In that Test, the Wallabies got more line breaks, more post-contact metres, an equal amount of tries, as well as six penalties to the Springboks’ 9 and their yellow card.

Only the boot of Handre Pollard and, conversely, James O’Connor were the difference in the end.

This is all to say, the Wallabies were their best early in the tournament, and this is particularly true for the defence.

Schmidt says things are never linear, but the defensive accuracy of the Wallabies has been, and unfortunately for fans, linearly declining.

Exhaustion after a gruelling Test series so far with Fiji, followed by the British and Irish Lions and then the TRC in such a tight window may be the cause, but that will be no excuse after the three-week hiatus ahead of Japan and the northern tour.

Mixing and matching inexperienced combinations hurts defence more than attack, and it may also be a big reason for the declining form as the tournament drew on.

The Wallabies run a connected line speed, which in later games has increased their speed off the line, which inevitably increases the chance of missed tackles.

In their evolving defensive structure, the Wallabies must be tackling at 85 per cent and above per other metrics to be in with a proper chance.

This is extrapolated by the fact that the Springboks, who have the most aggressive rush defence in the world, ran at 81 per cent at Ellis Park when they lost to the Wallabies and just 72 per cent when they thumped the All Blacks in Wellington, after only having to attempt 87 tackles.

Conversely, the All Blacks, who run a similar connected line speed system to the Wallabies, have had higher highs, hitting 94 per cent tackle success rate at Eden Park, and lower lows, tackling at just 71 per cent for their 111 attempts in Wellington.

Possession and territory tell a story here, but on raw defence, the Wallabies must turn their form around, and it must start in Japan in a few weeks’ time.

As for the TRC, the Wallabies know that not all their missed tackles in recent matches cost them, but they will be acutely aware which ones ultimately undid them.

Discipline: D

If there is anything that has been trending linearly in the Wallabies camp, it’s discipline, and it has been a sharp plummet into old habits for the Aussies.

During the Lions series, the Wallabies were exceptional. In South Africa, during the first leg of the TRC, they were extraordinary, conceding just four penalties to the Springboks’ 10, and in Cape Town, they again managed to keep it
to just six, with the home side conceding nine.

These are epic figures that were not paid enough attention, nor heralded enough at the time, but 10 penalties across two matches against the back-to-back World Cup, and now TRC winners is incredible.

However, the Wallabies’ run of being in referees’ good books ended there, conceding 10 penalties in Townsville and 14 in Sydney against Argentina.

Then came the Bledisloe matches, and the Wallabies continued their sharp decline, conceding 15 penalties in Eden Park and 14 again in Perth.

This is not to mention their three yellow cards conceded across the last two games, which were all entirely legit.

Poorer defensive efforts, changes in structure, and personnel meant the Wallabies were unable to win territory or possession, and ultimately, that pressure turned into frustration and a bad rapport with match officials.

This is not helped when your non-permanent captain, Harry Wilson, in this instance, is clearly the most penalised player in the team, conceding seven penalties across the six games.

He was two clear of star centre Len Ikitau on five, with Taniela Tupou on four, rounding out the top three most-penalised players.

As good as this trio has been for the Wallabies, particularly Wilson and Ikitau, they must clean up their act as the Wallabies aim to do the same.

The whistle is only set to be blown more often up north, so the Wallabies must be inch-perfect in contact, in the defensive line, and at the set piece.

Set piece: B

If you were to cast your mind back across the TRC, then you’d be hard-pressed to remember a time when the Wallabies were dominated at any set piece.

Former lineout coach Geoff Parling did an amazing job with the lineout leading up to and throughout the Lions series, and so too did scrum coach Mike Cron.

Their work throughout 2024, leading into TRC 2025, has the Wallabies miles ahead of where they started, and that kept the Wallabies in the contest during this year’s TRC competition.

As mentioned above, with the discipline, only one prop was in the top three offenders for penalties conceded, and this is a huge testament to the scrum strength of the Wallabies, particularly because two of Tupou’s penalties were for no arms tackles, so not scrum-related at all.

Tom Donnolly, the Wallabies’ new lineout coach, can be very pleased with his and Laurie Fisher’s work at the maul, but he will be begrudging the lineout accuracy throughout the competition.

The Wallabies were at just 78 per cent at Ellis Park, Donnolly’s first game in charge. This was followed by 86 per cent, 92, 90, 90, and a dismal 67 per cent in Perth.

While many of the faulty lineouts in the 67 per cent effort were due to wayward throws, the Wallabies lacked a true lineout general in the game; it’s a recurring issue for the Wallabies, who have relatively inexperienced lineout callers, except for Lukhan Salakaia-Loto.

While the team transfers from Parling to Donnolly and now Cron to the Brumbies’ John Ulugia, Schmidt must consider his selections carefully, as experience and wisdom will be at a premium in the set piece up north.

Now it would be remiss not to mention that the Wallabies have farewelled legends Nic White and James Slipper ahead of this northern tour, two men who drive standards, and the latter who has been scrummaging at near career best form.

This high standard of play can be down to his 151 caps of experience and the tutelage of Cron, and now the Wallabies must find someone to fill Slipper’s shoes, as well as trust in Ulugia.

The Wallabies have what it takes to rock the northern tour and to come out with five from five wins, but as seen here, they are still missing that last 10 per cent of finesse, nous, and accuracy, and that will be dictated by coaching, selections, as well as the players’ ability to adapt to new conditions and referees.