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Stat chat: Clear favourite emerges as Sam Cane's All Blacks successor
By Ned Lester
After more than 100 Tests, former All Blacks captain Sam Cane has hung up his international boots, opting to see out his career in Japan. Those now empty boots are mighty and hang, swinging gently, on a telephone line that connects the likes of Kel Tremain, Michael Jones and Richie McCaw.
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Next in the succession of great All Blacks openside flankers? That is the question Scott Robertson and his forwards guru Jason Ryan must now answer. For that answer, the coaches, like fans from across New Zealand, are looking to Super Rugby Pacific’s breathless 2025 season.
In 2024, Dalton Papali’i started the year at seven for the All Blacks, making way for Cane when he returned to full health. Ardie Savea and Peter Lakai shared a few minutes in Cane’s jersey late in the year when the 2015 world champion was sidelined for a Test against France with a deep gash on his forehead.
The incumbency is over, and the race to be Sam Cane’s successor is underway.
This is how the six top candidates stack up statistically after four rounds of Super Rugby Pacific, ranked by total relevant statistical productivity from last to first.
Ethan Blackadder
Age: 29
Caps: 15
Height: 190
Weight: 111
2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat
2 – Tackles: 18.8
2 – Dominant tackles: 1
3 – Minutes (total): 238
3 – Penalties conceded: 0.3
4 – Carries: 11.8
4 – Offloads: 0.3
4 – Tries: 0.3
5 – Carry metres: 26.2
6 – Linebreaks: 0
6 – Tackle Breaks: 0.3
6 – Missed tackles: 3.4
6 – Turnovers won: 0.3
Overall ranking: 4.25
While Blackadder has played No. 7 for the All Blacks in the past, he was exclusively employed on the blindside for the team in 2024. He didn’t touch a No. 7 jersey in 2023.
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One of the most fearless players on the planet, Blackadder’s work rate is undeniable. Few players throw their bodies into collisions with such intent and commitment, and fewer still can do so for the full 80 minutes.
The most familiar criticisms around Blackadder’s game are his lengthy injury history and his effectiveness in the physical exchanges.
While he’s played almost every minute this season, Blackadder missed six weeks of Super Rugby Pacific last year and only managed four Tests before succumbing to injury and being replaced by Wallace Sititi. It’s unlikely anyone will be usurping the young Chief after a World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year-winning debut season.
There were a handful of occasions in the Crusaders’ most recent clash, a win over the Reds, when Blackadder’s anticipation and speed had him in a position to land a disruptive blow to the attack at the moment they collected a pass, forcing possession to be spilled. One directly resulted in a try to Sevu Reece.
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While his involvements are incredibly high, rarely does Blackadder win collisions against other international-level forwards with the ball in hand, even losing his side momentum with his carries when propelled backward. This is reflected in his carry statistics.
Dalton Papali’i
Age: 27
Caps: 36
Height: 191
Weight: 113
2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat
1 – Tackles: 19.2
2 – Turnovers won: 1.5
2 – Tries: 0.4
2 – Linebreaks: 0.4
3 – Missed tackles: 1.2
3 – Dominant tackles: 0.8
5 – Tackle Breaks: 1.5
5 – Minutes (total): 208
6 – Penalties conceded: 1.9
6 – Offloads: 0
6 – Carries: 3.5
6 – Carry metres: 21.9
Overall ranking: 3.9
If it’s defence Scott Robertson wants, he need look no further than Dalton Papali’i.
Papali’i was second only to Carlo Tizzano in the overall tackle count a season ago and is again on track to finish among the top tacklers in Super Rugby in 2025. 19.2 is a remarkable tackle average, and while he hasn’t achieved it yet this season, Papali’i had as many dominant tackles as he did missed tackles in 2024.
On the attack side of the ball, Papali’i is by far the least employed ball-carrier on this list. Just 3.5 carries per game is a remarkably low number in a team that, a year ago, was thriving with the ball in hand.
Perhaps most notable of Papali’i’s stats outside of the low carry numbers is his penalty count. By far the worst on this list, the 27-year-old has five to his name already this season after conceding just eight in the entirety of the Blues’ 2024 championship-winning campaign.
Looking ahead to his fit in the All Blacks loose forward unit, with a healthy Wallace Sititi and Ardie Savea to complement, perhaps Scott Robertson could look to Papali’i to be the connecting piece to burn through defensive work in a way similar to his role with the Blues.
Peter Lakai
Age: 22
Caps: 3
Height: 186
Weight: 108
2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat
1 – Carry metres: 103.7
1 – Penalties conceded: 0
2 – Tries: 0.4
2 – Carries: 13
4 – Minutes (total): 216
4 – Tackles: 14.1
4 – Dominant tackles: 0.7
4 – Tackle Breaks: 1.9
5 – Missed tackles: 3
5 – Turnovers won: 0.4
6 – Linebreaks: 0
6 – Offloads: 0
Overall ranking: 3.6
The young buck of the group, Lakai’s future appears nothing but bright, and his first taste of international rugby in 2024 went as smoothly as the 22-year-old could have hoped for, results aside.
In the biggest of his three Test appearances to date, the Hurricanes flanker entered the game just minutes after kickoff and proceeded to play just as comfortably as he would in Hurricanes colours, despite the game coming under the bright lights of Stade de France against Antoine Dupont and company.
The Test match temperament is evident, and so too is the work rate. Splitting his time between all three flanker roles in 2025, Lakai has mainly played at No. 8, something that has helped his carry stats.
The big weaknesses in Lakai’s game so far this season have been his ability to win turnovers and his high number of missed tackles.
Looking at historical data, Lakai tackled at 84 per cent in 2024, and while he was far from the most effective fetcher in the competition, he did manage eight turnover wins.
Being five years younger than anyone else on this list and still comfortably holding his own, there’s a real desire to see the available playing time invested in Lakai as the All Blacks look towards the future.
Luke Jacobson
Age: 27
Caps: 23
Height: 191
Weight: 107
2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat
1 – Penalties conceded: 0
1 – Carries: 14.7
2 – Missed tackles: 0.9
2 – Carry metres: 86.4
2 – Offloads: 0.9
3 – Tackles: 15.6
3 – Tackle Breaks: 2.8
4 – Turnovers won: 0.9
6 – Tries: 0
6 – Linebreaks: 0
6 – Minutes (total): 87
6 – Dominant tackles: 0
Overall ranking: 3.5
The player with the smallest sample size to evaluate form in 2025, Jacobson is one of the few lineout options on this list, having played No. 8 for much of his career at the Chiefs.
While he tops the stats counts in two areas, penalties conceded and carries, these stats do need some additional context. Firstly, the 27-year-old has only played at No. 8 this season in the absence of Wallace Sititi.
Secondly, Jacobson was the most heavily penalised player in Super Rugby Pacific in 2024, a season in which he was playing on the openside flank. He averaged 8.6 carries per game in the No. 7 jersey last season.
On the flip side, the small sample size does a discredit to the man affectionately known as ‘Concrete Shoulders’ in regards to his dominant tackles. Jacobson averaged 1.1 dominant hits per game last season, a stat good enough to earn him second on this ranking if it were replicated this season.
Jacobson’s versatility made him the All Blacks’ preferred impact loose forward in 2024 when he was healthy. He cracked the starting XV once, playing on the blindside flank against Fiji.
A height of 191 cm makes the Chiefs hardman equally the tallest option available for the All Blacks and one of the most efficient tacklers.
Du’Plessis Kirifi
Age: 28
Caps: 0
Height: 181
Weight: 103
2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat
1 – Linebreaks: 0.6
1 – Tackle Breaks: 3.1
1 – Offloads: 1.9
2 – Minutes (total): 259
3 – Penalties conceded: 0.3
3 – Turnovers won: 1.2
3 – Carry metres: 85.9
4 – Missed tackles: 1.9
4 – Tries: 0.3
5 – Tackles: 13.6
5 – Dominant tackles: 0.6
5 – Carries: 11.7
Overall ranking: 3.1
Uncapped but not unfamiliar with the All Blacks environment, Kirifi has joined the team as injury cover on two occasions.
A fan favourite, Kirifi is the only uncapped player on this list and yet is the third oldest. That being said, with the 2027 Rugby World Cup ever-present in selection debates, the quadrennial tournament would still comfortably fall within Kirifi’s prime years.
The most familiar criticism of the 28-year-old’s game is his small stature. Standing under six feet tall, the precedent is that loose forwards have to be of Jac Morgan quality to break into the international arena at that height.
However you rate Kirifi’s talent, he does offer athleticism you won’t find elsewhere on this list. With speed off the mark, Kirifi is at his most effective as a tackler in high line-speed defenses and has the lowest centre of gravity, which helps when contesting around the ruck.
It’s hard to talk about the man without mentioning his attitude, too. A mature leader, the multi-time NPC-winning captain wears his heart on his sleeve regardless of the scoreline and brings immense energy to every contest.
On attack, Kirifi offers superb ball-playing ability as a runner and distributor, being best utilised at the head of pods with the ability to read the defence. Kirifi is often used at first receiver in lineout moves for the Hurricanes and contributes to linebreaks on a weekly basis in that role.
Du’Plessis Kirifi has been named as captain of the All Blacks XV for 2024 🔥#AllBlacksXV pic.twitter.com/EkxHCzVWkB
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) October 31, 2024
Ardie Savea
Age: 31
Caps: 94
Height: 188
Weight: 107
2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat
1 – Minutes (total): 265
1 – Missed tackles: 0.6
1 – Turnovers won: 1.8
1 – Tries: 0.6
1 – Dominant tackles: 1.5
2 – Tackle Breaks: 3
2 – Offloads: 0.9
3 – Carries: 12.1
3 – Linebreaks: 0.3
4 – Carry metres: 58.6
5 – Penalties conceded: 0.6
6 – Tackles: 13
Overall ranking: 2.5
Perhaps the question shouldn’t be ‘Who is the next No. 7?’ and should be ‘Who will play No. 6 once Ardie Savea moves to the openside and Wallace Sititi takes the reins at No. 8?’
Savea is undeniably adept at playing the openside flanker role and has done so during the last two club seasons in Japan and now at Moana Pasifika.
The 2023 World Rugby Player of the Year’s tackle efficiency and fetching ability show up week in, week out, regardless of what position he plays.
One of the strongest pound-for-pound players in the game, Savea will wrestle any of the world’s biggest players to the ground and be back on his feet in an instant.
Whether or not the All Blacks vice-captain steps into the No. 7 jersey will depend on many factors, largely whether selectors prefer their options on this list or their equivalent options on the blindside. Either way, expect Savea to remain in the All Blacks’ starting XV.
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So, Ardie Savea wins on paper.
The stats will only ever show so much of the picture, and there is no shortage of loose forward combinations the All Blacks could roll out in 2025.
It’s also worth noting that some of the men who occupy this list are also in the race for the blindside flanker role, should that be the position that opens up with Ardie Savea and Wallace Sititi reshuffled.
Either way, the question is: who complements that dynamic duo best? Will Scott Robertson opt for a player who can tackle his heart out and clean rucks around the All Blacks’ explosive stars, or a player who contributes more relentless running to punish defences the world over?
2024 taught us these selectors will not be seduced by X-factor lacking robustness. Against the world’s best, your greatest strength is only as relevant as your greatest weakness.
Can Ethan Blackadder go toe-to-toe with the big boys? Does Dalton Papali’i have the firepower? Is Peter Lakai ready to be the openside of the future? Can Luke Jacobson keep his hands clean? Is Du’Plessis Kirifi big enough to take haymaker after haymaker on the chin? Can Ardie Savea resist the strain of father time?
These questions must be answered, and the verdict will be delivered on Wednesday, July 2, when the first All Blacks team of the year is named to play France in Dunedin.
Statistics courtesy of Stats Perform/Opta
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Really enjoyed the Breakdown for once last weekend, it was a sensible and interesting debate amongst the shared options (probably helped by Beaver taking over from SJK).
I don’t think Ned does enough justice to the benefits of Kirifi’s low center of gravity in this article, and I’m not just saying that because he’s starting to develop the perfect game for his size. The other aspect in favour of Kirifi is that he’s the one player showing real improvement. All the others, apart from Lakai of course (even Savea despite his best efforts), are going backwards.
That can obviously be put down to ‘form’ within the very small window at the start of the season where main players typical try to build from, but it’s an important factor that we do need to see improvement in contributions from DP, Jacobsen, and Blackadder before they can seriously be considered. So with that sad, the options right now are actually very narrow (as outlined in the recommendations in this article), but of course we should expect at least 2 of those other 3 to be putting their hands up too.
There is no Billy Harmon this year, but his replacement is one other player who has good stats this year, and also a lot of extra promise to come, Veveni Lasaqa. He’s having to overtake a couple of last years other stars, Withy and Renton, in terms of the Highlanders mix, to get a starting spot and some minutes under his belt to really show what he’s got, but I think theres much more to see yet. There are of course a bunch of other names worth mentioning, Withy himself not the least amongst them for the future, but Lasaqa is one that I can see taking the comp by storm in the sort of fashion that Sititi did.
But along the lines of the topic used, I really see Sititi as being a 7 as well. With Savea and Lasaka he has that perfect mix of body strength, still a low center of gravity, but also enough muscle to foot it with sides that have 1.96/110kg flanks. While he has talent to burn, one would also not be wrong to expect a dip in performance, even without that, for the purpose of development and long term planning, I’d expected Wallace to fit the impact role more than the 80min man for the All Blacks this year, and the most likely person I can see him replacing on the regular, is Ardie Savea. So that would likely mean time at 7 or 8.
While it’s not necessarily the thing I’d do, that could work well with Savea transitioning to the impact role (both because hes likely to need less minutes as he gets older, and because theres hopefully good depth overtaking him), and Wallace to a starting position again. Of course the troublesome position, since Read started to lose form before RWC 19’, is that number 8 spot which Ardie had been asked to fill, and now which he is only really relieved from because of Sititi’s immergence. Wallace to me only answers so many of those questions by being used at 8 because of how exceptionally he played on both sides of the ball last year. So what if there is a drop, or he is just given a different plan than being overplayed by Razor (like he was last year to his detriment)? Well from what I’ve seen this year, Hoskins Sotutu is showing he’s ready to take the jersey back again and make it his. I’m really excited by his impact and intensity in his allround game he’s had a chance to show this year, and I’m confident it’s going to continue/show, even to the point the Blues win this weekend.
So what does that mean? I can see the best balanced backrow as being Ardie at 7, Sotutu at 8, and Barret at 6, with Sititi on the bench. As a 7 back up I’d currently go with Kirifi, but expect DP, as the starter and, I’d imagine, the number 1 7 before he got injured last year and never came back, to make himself the preferred next goto 7 this year after Ardie (and maybe actually the best specialist 7, but it just not being enough to give him the primary role).
Kirifi is playing well. Being less that six foot means he isn’t really a lineout option; though the openside rarely jumps.
Being a one position specialist also hurts him. In the medium term (I think before RWC 2027) World Rugby will reduce the number of subs from eight to five (they may leave bench at eight though). Players who can cover more than one role will be at a premium.
I always thought Kirifi should hit the gym and become a mobile number 2. He could’ve been like a more athletic version of Andrew Hore.
I’d start Sititi at eight as I think that gives him more opportunity to exploit his running skills. I think he has the potential to be the World Player of the Year. Immense potential.
As normal the problem is who to leave out.
Agree, Veveni Lasaqa looks like one to watch in future. Maybe a bolter for the end of year tour?
It’s still pretty early in the Super Rugby season. Maybe he could do a Sititi and force his way in earlier?
Hoskins won't play ABs again, he's been dropped for workrate and then shown poor attitude…. That's it for him. No chance
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Do they want to replace Sam Cane and his capabilities? Or do they want something different? What do they want from the loose forward trio?
If the All Blacks to want to play their flowing, offloading game. They need more players who can bend/brake tackles and offload. That was one of the weaker aspects of Sam Cane’s game.
In 2024 the All Blacks set piece returned to world class. The ruck and maul work was good. The goal kicking and punting was good enough. You would’ve expected an All Blacks team, with those positives, to dominate. But most of the games were uncomfortably close for their liking. Part of the reason is that rush defences are extremely effective at countering the ‘offloading game’.
To get the ‘offloading game’ working, they need more power runners. Having a true left wing, Caleb Clark, made a difference. Roigard made a difference at 9. The midfield seems to be under achieving, but the backs aren’t the focus of this article.
The front row’s running game is good. As with the locks'; Vaa’i really broke through last year. If Holland gets in, he could reproduce the consistent ‘go forward’ that Retallick delivered; while also having more height and work rate than Tuipulotu.
That leaves the loose trio. Savea is a good all around openside. While he’s not the cleanout/tackle/turnover machine that Cane was, Cane did not have Savea’s running game. The question is – does one player have to be the cleanout/tackle/turnover machine – or can it be split between the pack?
Sititi is mobile, a solid lineout option, and has openside skills. Vaa’i is mobile and multiskilled for a lock, so is Holland. Finau is a formidable runner and tackler, and is a genuine lineout option. Suafoa has great potential as a blindside/lock reserve. Peter Lakai can cover all three loose roles.
So maybe: 4) Vaa’i, 5) Holland, 6) Finau, 7) Savea, 8) Sititi, 19) Suafoa, 20) Lakai?
Savea has always got way more turnovers than cane. Cane cleaned out, tackled (and gave away crucial cards in pressure finals)…. He was pretty one dimensional, very focused on his strengths.
Not a lot of talk about 7 here Spew, but I get it. On you’re topic, I’d actually (counter it) argue that what they need is the link man at 7, to receive the offloads, not make them.
So getting back on topic, why did you choose Ardie?
I wish the comment section only had 50 words untill capped.
I wish Finau would lift his game and play to his potential in 2025, we will see. Similarly, Suafua has enormous potential but nothing he has done at this point deserves a matchday jersey.
Shannon Frizell is returning from Japan in June and he would be my choice until one or more of Finau, Suafua, Grace, Parker, or Flanders reach All Black standard at blindside.
As for Scott Barrett, he was world class in 2022 and 2023, played solid but not quite the same standard last season due to niggling injuries and will likely return to his 2023 standard if he remains healthy. Locks have a long shelf life in test rugby.
So maybe: 4) Barrett, 5) Vaa’i 6) Frizell, 7) Savea, 8) Sititi, 19) Holland 20) Lakai
Great lineup.
Ethan Blackadder is up to doing the job at international level. Playing for the Crusaders on Sunday against the Reds he was crucial to the Crusaders back row smashing the Wallaby laden loosies in that game. Ethan had a great game , playing for the AB’s against South Africa last year and they are tough.
I don’t know about that GP, not at 7, which is the topic. Ethan was notably the slowest last week (and in that SA game), which is probably the most important aspect of playing 7. He’s probably still switching to 7 body and style wise (hoepfully he’s been given a chance to specialise and make his best case), and of course you have to remember his development is only that of a 24 year old due to all his injurie and actual play time hes had, so lets just hope he can continue to get better with age and hopefully, game time.
I think you state the case against Blackadder perfectly, Ned:
‘While his involvements are incredibly high, rarely does Blackadder win collisions against other international-level forwards with the ball in hand, even losing his side momentum with his carries when propelled backward.’
I would love to see Ardie at 7. I think right now he’s the only 7 we’ve got who is at or above the level of the best 7s internationally, guys like McWreight and Morgan. With Sititi as our first choice 8, that leaves our perennial post-Kaino problem - who’s going to play at 6? If Sititi is a genuine line out option (he was used that way last year), could we get away with a shorter, defensive oriented, breakdown savvy 6, like Papali’i, or maybe Jacobson? Or do we keep looking for a tight/loose beast with genuine line out ability? I would like to see Barrett (particularly with the quality of genuinely big locks coming through, like Holland and Darry and Lord) given some extended time there, and also Ah Kuoi, but Super Rugby is not conducive to that - you can get away with small locks.
Horses for courses. NZ is blessed with a number of fine loose forwards . Who is selected would depend on what we are up against and what type of game we wish to play against them. Note also that forwards tend to have a high attrition rate and some players eg Blackadder have a history of injuries.
Ah Kuoi at 6 which actually be a great shout tbh. Tall, physical, and explosive. I think Kirifi could be an international level 7 if he oculd stack on a bit of timber.