Pre-match analysis - France vs Wales
It’s almost time for the talking to stop, the predictions to be filed away and the actual rugby to take centre stage. And there is no better place to kick off the 2019 Six Nations than the Stade de France under Friday night lights.
Hosts France will want to lay down a marker at the beginning of a Rugby World Cup year and the scalp of Wales, on a nine-match winning run, would be a considerable cockerel feather in their collective cap. Their visitors will be determined to produce something special in Warren Gatland’s final Championship as coach and an away win in Paris would be a set them up for a Grand Slam challenge.
Coach vs Coach
Going into this year’s Championship it is fair to say that the jury is out for France and their coach Jacques Brunel. The former Italy boss has been in charge for just over a year but is yet to find a winning formula or consistent selection.
He may well have cursed the Six Nations fixture computer as he attempts to find one, too. In seven Tests coaching Italy and France against Wales, Brunel has masterminded a grand total of zero wins – although Les Bleus lost by a solitary point in Cardiff last season.
By contrast Warren Gatland appears to have rediscovered his midas touch going into his final year as Wales boss. Wales are currently on a nine-match winning run and have won seven of their 12 encounters with Les Bleus since their Kiwi coach took charge 11 years ago.
It quite possibly should have been eight as following 21 minutes of time added in Paris two years ago, Wales were a turnover away from securing a third successive victory at the Stade de France.
Gatland will be confident of making it three out of four on Friday night.
Player vs Player
The headline news of France’s team announcement was the sheer size of the forward pack selected by Brunel. To put it bluntly, Les Bleus have opted for brute force in Paris.
In total the French forwards weigh in at a combined 962kg and their heft is best summed up by the fact that 6-foot-2 back-row Wenceslas Lauret is the lightest member of the ample eight, weighing in at 103kg – or over 16 stone.
Wales’ front-row will come under particular scrutiny as the diminutive captain and hooker Guilhem Guirado lines up between Jefferson Poirot and Uini Atonio. France will look to grind their visitors into submission – as they did in the 99th minute two years ago – and Rob Evans , back in the side in place of the injured Nicky Smith, and Tomas Francis are sure to be busy. According to the RPI, France have the collective edge here – 238 to 231.
Brunel will hope his forwards can also exploit any rustiness Adam Beard and Ross Moriarty may feel following concussion but the Wales back-row is the most experienced available to Gatland.
Behind their brutish scrum, Les Bleus have gone for finesse. Romain Ntamack has been preferred to Mathieu Bastareaud, suggesting that Les Bleus will look to move the Welsh centre axis of Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies around the park.
Meanwhile, Two club partnerships go head-to-head at half-back as Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez look to use their experience against Tomos Williams (), making his Six Nations debut, and Gareth Anscombe on only his second Championship start at fly-half. But Wales have the upper hand here according to the RPI, 163 to 157.
Gatland has picked the strongest back division he has available, but what might swing the contest in Wales’ favour is the quality of replacements at his disposal. France will not enjoy watching Samson Lee, Aaron Wainwright, Davies and Dan Biggar (with a combined RPI of 283) rise from the bench in the final quarter.
Key Battlegrounds
Not even the most ardent member of the front-row union would have enjoyed watching 19 minutes of increasingly arduous scrummaging that signalled the end of the last meeting between these two sides in Paris. It is not often that a player can be sent to the sin bin with time up and return to the field with his side still frantically, farcically defending their line.
Editors from South Wales to northern France will hope things can be sorted out in regulation time with deadlines pressing on Friday night, but you can be sure the scrum will play as integral a role again.
An ankle injury to Nicky Smith has opened the door to Evans once again but his inclusion in no way weakens the Welsh front-row. It is not so long ago that the loosehead prop was one of the most important names on Gatland’s team sheet and he has been in fine, niggly form for the Scarlets.
French replacement prop Demba Bamba has a bright future in the game but in the here and now Wales will be confident they have the strength to cope with France’s hulks. If Evans and Francis can see off Jefferson Poirot and Uini Atonio then Wyn Jones and Samson Lee (combined RPI – 149) can be sure to finish the job.
At the base of the scrum Wales will also back themselves to win the battle of the breakdown as Josh Navidi and Justin Tipuric work in tandem with Ross Moriarty. That trio can also do some damage in open play, too.
Conclusion
This is a new-look France line-up, particularly in the backs, and it is almost impossible to predict how the players will gel before they step onto the Stade de France pitch.
Ntamack and Damian Penaud are exciting additions from last year’s Championship and it is mouthwatering to think what they might be capable of if Lopez gets front foot ball and they can link with Wesley Fofana. But that is a big if.
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Wales are not two Test victories shy of their longest winning run for no reason and while Les Bleus are a team with potential, Gatland has selected a XV for the here and now. Wales ooze calm, authoritative quality throughout the spine of their team, from hooker Ken Owens – who will become his country’s most-capped No. 2 – to captain Alun Wyn Jones, Tipuric in the back-row and through Jonathan Davies, George North and Liam Williams in the backs.
Gatland’s side have more than enough about them to soak up the physicality of the French pack and put the pressure on the hosts. Should they do that then victory will be theirs for the taking.
Comments on RugbyPass
Wasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
30 Go to comments