Only two Wallabies would get in this Lions side – Andy Goode

The teams have been announced, the hype is almost over and if we’re being honest, the Lions should be winning by a comfortable margin in Brisbane.

If you take the power and experience of Will Skelton, Rob Valetini and Taniela Tupou out of any team, along with your first choice fly half in Noah Lolesio, it would struggle and Australia simply don’t have the depth that some other countries do.

As a result, they have a 29-year-old debutant, someone making their first Test start in the most important position on the field, a pair of wingers with less than a handful of starts between them and a bit less heft than might otherwise have been the case.

Nick Champion de Crespigny, Tom Lynagh, Harry Potter and Max Jorgensen are all decent players but they’re unproven at international level and they aren’t names that are going to be striking fear into the hearts of Lions fans.

Joe Schmidt knows what he’s doing and will have a few tricks up his sleeve but I can’t understand the decision to start veteran James Slipper either ahead of Angus Bell, who was terrific last year.

I don’t think it’s any exaggeration to say that only two Wallabies would get in if you were picking a combined team with the British and Irish Lions, Len Ikitau and Joseph Suaalii, with Tom Wright maybe pushing Hugo Keenan close at full back.

I think you could have named this Lions Test team when the squad was announced a couple of months ago, with maybe Ellis Genge and Joe McCarthy having nudged their way in, but Jac Morgan is definitely the player most unfortunate to miss out.

He’s been one of the standout players on tour so far, aside from his much talked about status as the only Welshman, but he just so happens to play in the most competitive position in this squad.

Tom Curry can possibly count himself a little bit lucky to get the nod from what we’ve seen in the warm-up games but he’s got a mountain of credit in the bank and generally produces his very best on the biggest stage.

I’m surprised Henry Pollock hasn’t been given a spot on the bench for the game-breaking ability he can bring late on but Ben Earl can play across the whole back row and I think that’s why he’s in ahead of Josh van der Flier as well.

Andy Farrell has only started Tadhg Beirne five times in the back row for Ireland since the last Lions tour in 2021 but I think he was always going to do so in this one after the lineout went so badly against Argentina in Dublin, although Ollie Chessum must have pushed him extremely close.

The set piece, and particularly launching attacks from the lineout, is a massive part of the game and it’s the one area where the Lions have really underperformed so this back row gives Dan Sheehan the most options.

Australia will surely raise their levels because they only get the opportunity to face the Lions once every 12 years but they haven’t played for eight months, aside from the narrow win over Fiji, and finished rock bottom of the Rugby Championship last year.

They did nick a win at Twickenham in the autumn and perform admirably in defeat against Ireland but they’re still very much rebuilding from their lowest ever ebb and are underdogs in this series.

The Lions will look to get the upper hand physically given the players the Wallabies missing and we’ll still see a similar game plan to the one we’ve seen in the warm-up games but it’ll just start further up the field.

Jamison Gibson-Park and Finn Russell will be trusted to go when it’s on but you won’t see anywhere near as much playing out of their own 22 or even their own half and points will surely be taken when on offer.

The kicking game will have to be on point because the aerial ability of Suaalii, in particular, is one area of real strength for Australia and something they’ll certainly be looking to utilise at every opportunity.

Schmidt is one of the smartest coaches we’ve ever seen and he’ll be using every ounce of knowledge he gained over the years working with Farrell and half of this Lions starting XV but he doesn’t have as many weapons in his arsenal as he’d like.

On paper, they’re going to have to produce a few very special plays or the Lions are going to have to really underperform to win this first Test because there’s a fairly big gulf in terms of international experience and quality between the two teams.

Farrell’s men are big favourites and I don’t think it’s going to be squeaky bum time in the closing stages either, with the Lions having plenty in reserve on the bench, so I’m going for a win by 15 for the men in red.