Nobody outside Scotland camp is expecting them to win - Andy Goode
Eddie Jones might say the expectation will be “heavy” for Scotland but the truth is the pressure is all on England and there’d be huge shockwaves around the world of rugby if the Scots were to win.
He’s right in saying that it’s the most important game of the year for Scotland because of the history and rivalry but they haven’t won at Twickenham since 1983 and nobody outside of their camp is expecting them to win.
It’s a tough tournament to judge with all of the external factors at play and this game is arguably tougher to judge with the absence of fans certainly working in Scotland’s favour but if England perform to their ability, it should still be a comfortable victory.
The draw a couple of years ago in one of the craziest games in the history of international rugby will have given Scotland a bit more hope and they pushed England close last year too but we can discount that game completely really because of the horrendous weather.
Conditions at Twickenham will be nothing like they were at Murrayfield last year but rain is forecast and that, combined with it being the first game of the tournament and the first game for quite a while for some players, means we’re unlikely to see much flashy rugby.
Henry Slade has spoken this week about England having “some good changes of plans and ideas now with attack” but I’ll be surprised if it isn’t more of the same given all of the circumstances.
England will look to get turnover ball and attack off that but there’ll be a very prescriptive aspect to the tactics outside of that as we’ve seen in recent times and the question is how rusty will they be?
We know the Saracens contingent haven’t played for a couple of months and I don’t think the fact that the coaches had to isolate for a while will have hampered preparations too much but we’ll only be able to judge that as the game unfolds.
From a Scotland perspective, all eyes will be on Finn Russell and everyone will be looking for him to produce some magic every time he touches the ball but Cam Redpath should be a major help to him as a second ballplayer.
The key for them will be whether they’re able to manage the game and control field position and Scotland may feel they have more of a chance of gaining parity up front against this England starting pack.
Will Stuart is a good young player but he hasn’t got the experience that Kyle Sinckler has and Ellis Genge, while I’d say he’s a better scrummager, doesn’t quite have the same all-round game as Mako Vunipola.
Zander Fagerson and Rory Sutherland’s reputations have been enhanced hugely over the past year or two so that front row battle, which England normally get the better of, will be an interesting one.
Overall, you would still definitely have to say England have the edge in the forwards though and they have a lot more firepower in reserve on the bench than Scotland do as well and that might just prove crucial.
We know Eddie likes to call his replacements finishers and places a lot of importance on them and the likes of Luke Cowan-Dickie, Courtney Lawes, Ben Earl, Dan Robson, George Ford and Max Malins all have the ability to really change a game.
Gary Graham is in great form for Newcastle at the moment and WP Nel and Richie Gray have bags of experience but Scotland don’t have the same gamebreakers on their bench.
England will try to impose their power game and suffocate Scotland with their line speed, forcing Russell in particular to take more and more chances as the game goes on.
The Racing 92 man is being tipped by many to start for the Lions if the series goes ahead this year and it’ll be interesting to see if he feels the pressure to try to produce magic every time he touches the ball or whether he can manage the game and conditions.
There are a few factors in the mix that can be seen as levellers such as England’s potential rustiness, the absence of fans and a couple of big names missing up front but it’s hard to see Scotland living with England’s power and tactical game and I don’t see the Calcutta Cup being taken back up north.
Comments on RugbyPass
Oh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
2 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
2 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
26 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to comments