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Jake White: The brutal decision Rassie will have to make if Boks lose to France

The South Africa team talk during a water break during the Autumn Nations Series 2025 match between South Africa and Japan at Wembley Stadium on November 01, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Luke Walker/Getty Images)

Right now, I’m Tiger fishing on the Zambezi, and yet on Saturday night, 8,000 miles away in Paris, it will be Le Coq who will be hoping to peck and bring down some Springboks to avenge the World Cup quarter-final loss. It was a result that cut them to the core.

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In South Africa, for all the quality possessed by a spirited English renaissance and Ireland’s perpetual belligerence, it is Les Bleus who the rugby public fear most, so the result against Fabien Galthie’s men will be keenly watched. They will be a true measure of whether Rassie can take some of his Dependables all the way to Australia or jettison them as Expendables with land visible in the distance.

All games are physical, but I think there’s an added edge, and even some needle to this particular game. The Stade de France will bring back all the emotions for the home team. I will never forget Antoine Dupont’s thousand-yard stare at the end of that game. The dream had died in the most excruciating fashion with bodies clad in blue strewn over the patchwork green quilt of a pitch, while the Boks, exhausted, raised their hands aloft.

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This summer, due to Top 14 commitments and some opting to regenerate after an attritional season, they rested a glut of their front liners for the three Tests in New Zealand. Dupont was injured, while Toulouse’s Thomas Ramos, Anthony Jelonch and Romain Ntamack were involved in wrestling the Bouclier de Brennus out of Jalibert, Penaud and Bielle-Biarrey’s hands, and they were France-lite.

This is the first time they will get the band back together again – deploying the men who thought they could win a home World Cup. They will be fired up in the dressing room saying, ‘not on our watch again’, and it will be a huge motivation. France can get a serious psychological boost by beating the World Champions.

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The fact that Fabien has made them watch Chasing the Sun just again highlights how much that quarter-final meant to that group, the coaches and to the nation. They get a chance to stake a claim and get some form of retribution. To my mind, however, there’s quite a bit of pressure on them to perform.

I’ll be interested to see if there are any barbs before the game between Rassie and Fabien, because they are the two most experienced coaches in the Autumn Nations Series and they will try and wind each other up. Rassie went early naming his squad against the Wallabies for the game at Ellis Park and it bit him on the behind, so he may be more cautious this time out.

France have a wonderful opportunity to play England and Ireland at home in the Six Nations, so a win on Saturday sets them up to be one of the favourites for the World Cup.

Having coached in France, I can promise you, they play in a different way to any other side. There is an unpredictability to them. They don’t think in an Anglo-Saxon way. I know it’s a cliché, but you never know what you’re going to get and sometimes you wonder if even they know what’s coming next. Fabien, to his credit, has tried to instil more pragmatism and consistency in selection, but they still make curveball choices. Ironically, it’s Rassie who has almost been French in his selection of late, making 8, 9 or 10 changes for that second Test out in Wellington and obliterating the All Blacks. Those wholesale changes were par for the course for France 10 or 15 years ago.

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It’s a stadium I know well. I remember going there with the Boks in 2006 and we lost to a late Freddie Michalak intercept. The boys were despondent in the changing room afterwards and I said to them, ‘we are going to come back here and we are going to celebrate winning a World Cup next October. I promise you’. And we did. I told those boys I’d take them with me to the World Cup and we’d end up with a smile on our faces. On Saturday, if France have their tails up, it will be some cauldron. For any team to lift the Webb Ellis Cup, they will have to beat one of those to win. That’s my prediction.

For France, even more than the Springboks, this is make or break in terms of where they’re going to be in two years. Ahead of the World Cup draw, the teams will be starting to think about Australia.

It’s funny, when I got hold of the team in 2004, they had come off the back of a deflating tournament at the 2003 World Cup, bombing out in the quarter-finals. One of the things that the players said to me was that they were based in Perth and were demolished against England, it felt like they weren’t in a country holding the World Cup. Western Australia, back then, wasn’t renowned for being rugby mad. Whereas for 2007, we were based in Paris, we went to the opening ceremony and the feel-good factor was there. My point is that there will be a massive difference to the atmosphere depending on where you’re based. If you’re in Adelaide or Brisbane, it will have a big bearing on the atmosphere. Of course, there are other variables, like your opposition but given its size, it’s like a mini-United States with regard to the favourite sports in states.

One thing the French have done, when they beat the All Blacks in Cardiff in 2007, is conjure up some amazing wins on the road. In 2011, they were a cigarette paper from winning the World Cup in New Zealand, and if it’s not the Springboks or All Blacks, Les Bleus may finally strike for the Northern Hemisphere to lift their first World Cup. For the neutral, that would be incroyable.

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68 Comments
P
PMcD 12 hours ago

Well Jake, I think Rassie has two brutal decisions after that match, which bottle of stunning red to open and then how many follow after a victory like that? 🤣🤣

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RW 2 days ago

I know Rassie will be planning a clean sweep this tournament particularly given the last team the two teams met in the November series, Boks lost. Rassie will be prepping for a massive showdown. However, if France lose, it is possible the French public might place their players and coaches under guillotine. They feel the vengeance strongly. However as much as Rassie will want to win this one his goal is 2027. Its not obviously a vengeance game but one which will be a feather in his cap. A two upmanship on Galthié.

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C B 3 days ago

We gotta let go of Etzebeth

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SK 3 days ago

I really doubt that a loss in this test will lead to brutal decisions. Rassie is already doing that. Vincent Koch, Bongi Mbonambi, Le Roux and several others are already being culled or their influence diminished and Eben, Mostert, Kriel, De Allende and several others have played fewer games this year. Rassie is already making plenty of brutal calls, phasing out players as he sees fit and creating a new identity for the team with new leaders

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Leo Maywood 3 days ago

I just love the mental gymnastics of my fellow South Africans. Now all the talk is about how SA don’t need to win this as badly as the French. How the French need this more than we do. Really? We are no 1 and world champions and for some reason it will be okay if we lost to the no 5 in the world. This is what happens when Springbok supporters fear the other side. We should win on Saturday. The world and bookies expect us to win. If we don’t it will be bad for us, simple.

H
Hammer Head 3 days ago

So you think the home crowd will be happy with another loss to the boks? On top of the last one?


On paper the boks should win. But France have a lot riding on demonstrating improvement. And retribution.


This is emotive not logical.

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Dave Didley 3 days ago

Would be brilliant to see them both use a 7:1 bench.

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JC 3 days ago

Springboks were lucky to get to the final…France and NZ were better

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Fid 3 days ago

How were either of those two sides better? France comfortably beat NZ in the pool stages and the Springboks beat NZ 35-7 in a RWC warm up match, beat the French in the QF and beat the All Blacks again in the final. Since 2018 the Springboks have a superior win/loss record against NZ and the Springboks have consistently won in France. Not sure the stats back up your statement.

H
Hammer Head 3 days ago

Yawn

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PMcD 3 days ago

It doesn’t really matter, they are double World Champions and this latest batch is potentially Rassie’s best ever team of the lot, so may well be on the way to the unthinkable “triple winners” and chase rugby immortality if they do.

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SB 3 days ago

it will be Le Coq who will be hoping to peck and bring down some Springboks to avenge the World Cup quarter-final loss. It was a result that cut them to the core


Well the good news for France is that IF they get hammered AT HOME by the Boks they will have something new to obsess over instead of that WC match that was million years ago 😅

H
Hammer Head 3 days ago

One thing’s for certain. All the pressure is on the home team for this one. It will be interesting to see how the French deal with this pressure. Even if Galthie is doing the right thing by making sure the players understand the bigger picture - that can all mean nothing when hit with the atmosphere and the expectations of the crowd on game day.


Can’t wait to see this game unfold.

S
SK 3 days ago

France are under pressure from their public and from within their own group to exact revenge but aside from that everyone else expects the Springboks to win. The French first team has not played as a group since the 6 Nations ended and several stars are injured. The Springboks by comparison have won a Rugby Championship and while they have their own injury concerns have played multiple tests as a group. The Boks are also chasing the No.1 ranking before the World Cup Draw and if they lose to the current No.5 they could very well lose their opportunity to do just that. So as much as France are under pressure the Boks could very well be facing even more pressure.

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DS 3 days ago

Totally agree. The Boks are still in a development phase for RWC2027 and it's going to be good to watch Sacha's progress particularly. I especially want to see De Allende's approach to the game because he quite rightly reminded us all about the theft of RWC2023 from SA and how we'll never get another one, so all this airy-fairy BS about how we robbed them by one point is ridiculous. They deserved it then, and hopefully we'll repeat it again, maybe with a higher score difference, but the distaste of what they did to our country still lingers on. And if the Boks lose, we'll shrug our shoulders and move on to Dublin and chalk it down to just another part of the learning curve for 2027 (where BTW the conditions should suit the Boks far more than the awful ones they had to deal with at times in France).

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Leo Maywood 3 days ago

How on earth is all the pressure on France? SA is no 1 in the world and world champions. France is no 5 and have MANY of their best players missing for this one. The bookies and rest of the world expect a springbok win. So no, there is zero pressure on France to win this one. All the pressure is on SA to win.

P
PMcD 3 days ago

I think they have moved beyond being that team HH. Just look at how they put IRE to the sword in the 6N’s decider and whilst ENG squeezed out the W, look at how far they pushed ENG at Twickenham.


They are growing stronger all the time.

H
Hammer Head 3 days ago

Impossible to be tiger fishing and writing this article at the same time.

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RW 3 days ago

Sounds a good way to get bitten.

A
AP 3 days ago

The challenge for France is they really should not build this game up too much. If they do with this “grudge match” mentality - and they lose again - it will be a psychological blow. Especially if it is another close game where the Boks manage the final minutes better. Then if they

meet in a knockout game France will have the seeds of doubt in them. From a coaching POV, Galthie should position this match as part of the development and growth as a squad to 2027 and not create unnecessary psychological pressure on his team which could come back to bite them in ‘27. Conversely, the Boks don’t have much to lose as Rassie has always positioned himself as a tinkerer who is evolving his squad - and while he will target this game heavily, the mindset if the result doesn’t go their way will likely be different. He will claim that France wanted it more because of their bitter defeat in ‘23, and counter that by saying the Boks will want it just as much in ‘27 in a hypothetical knockout game on neutral ground - which the Boks have won before.

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JPM 3 days ago

Galthié message is exactly what you are describing: the development and growth as a squad to 2027. BB (Bielle Biarrey) conveyed this message refusing to spak about revenge. Furthermore various players of the team presented this morning didn’t play for the entire RWC and are very young players (both props received their first cap vs the ABs this summer).

Two other factors to take into account ito pressure building towards the RWC : Dupont and three other key players are missing and next year both teams will play again at the exact same period.

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PR 3 days ago

Very true. France have much more to lose than the Boks.

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Hammer Head 3 days ago

1000%

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Willardi 3 days ago

The Boks have evolved more than any other country. 1 coach change with France since 2023. Most dynamics would have made a lot of changes after an early exit. I think either Sous or Jasper said this isn’t about emotion. It seems all I hear from the French press and management is about revenge. En plus they haven’t played as their first choice team since the 6N. Boks by 13.

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PMcD 3 days ago

I’d look at it a different way, Galthie realised they have a game strategy and playing style than can compete but they needed more depth and then look at what they have been building.


It’s going to be a very close test match with the biggest collisions you have ever seen.

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PR 3 days ago

One of the biggest stumbling blocks for the Boks on Saturday will be the TV producer. Expect footage of French transgressions not to be available (like the double movement tor the try to beat the Boks in 2022) and for very Bok tackle that comes near the shoulders to be played over and over again with the baying crowd putting pressure on the ref to take action.

D
Dave Didley 3 days ago

That's a wee bit salty.


PSDT clearing out rucks with his forehead is what cost them the 2022 match.


As red as a card can be.

H
Hammer Head 3 days ago

Expect ultra zoomed in footage of the general crotch area of all French players in case of the odd tug of war.

P
PMcD 3 days ago

Never happens in France PR. 🤣🤣


Also look for the accidental rogue replays of any SA indiscretions to help the ref see what he missed. 🤣🤣

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Willardi 3 days ago

Good point but the French don’t hang about when they start under performing. The crowd are very quick to show their disapproval of their performance. Their strength can become a weakness very swiftly.

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DP 3 days ago

A very good point. Boks know they’ll be playing against more than 15, same as last time in Marseilles.

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PMcD 3 days ago

It’s certainly the game of the year JW (even more interesting than AUS vs Lions) but Rassie is still experimenting with this side, who will get better by RWC2027 (some fear to even comprehend that possibility).


The Wessels ban was unfortunate, as I was really looking forward to seeing Steenekamp, Wessels/Louw coming of the bench with Snyman but I think once he is fit you will see a return of the 6|2 bench with Hanekom & Kwagga on the bench, which I am not sure how you live with that sort of forward power over 80 mins.


At the moment Rassie is still playing with the centre balance and using the 5|3 bench (with Andre coming off the bench) but it feels like DDA provides a better defence and Andre allows a better attack, so it’s a subtle shift depending on who they play at 12, with the scales feeling in DDA’s favour (but what an incredible back up plan if injured).


Can’t wait to see the two teams collide in “Le quake” this weekend but when they do, you might just feel the tremors in the Zambezi. 🤣🤣

S
SB 4 days ago

If France can pull off a win, it will be like last year where they missed Baille, Ntamack, Penaud, Atonio and Cros yet still beat the All Blacks.


This time round they are missing Dupont, Moefana, Mauvaka, Cros, Atonio and Baille again.


Excited to see the lineups, hope to see a great game.

J
JPM 3 days ago

The big difference this year is that is their first test match. Last year they played Japan first and then NZ.

D
DP 4 days ago

Boks to win it. It’ll be tough going as they’re the 2 best sides in the world (We all know it despite the rankings).

2027 is another story and I don’t believe this match will have a bearing if these two sides meet in Oz. France won’t win in 2027, it’ll be between SA , NZ and England. France will implode along the way, same as it ever was..

P
PMcD 4 days ago

I’m not convinced DP and the stats are building towards a different narrative for FRA.


FRA are changing their style, they have a harder edge to defence thanks to Shaun Edwards, whilst increasing their attacking threats across the park and it’s showing in their collective results.


When ENG were rising under Eddie (2016-2019), you saw their teams dominating the Heineken Cup and learning how to play knock out rugby away from home, whilst then winning Six Nations Championships along the way, which cascaded through to the National team.


Look what’s happened since, FRA have a monster physical pack that runs 3 or 4 rucks in the middle of the park, lines up a miss match and then sends Meafou or Antonio on a 1-2-1 carry, breaks the defensive line and immediately unleashes that blistering attack, who can skin you on the edges playing coast to coast rugby. Their teams are consistently the strongest teams in the Investec Cup and they are the reigning Six Nation Champions and will likely be so again this year.


ENG did FRA in the scrum at the 6N’s, so suggests SA will still have that advantage but the rest of “Le Quake” will be massive big bodies running into other massive big bodies, with the two most electric back lines in world rugby going head to head (sorry NZ fans).


It’s going to be epic, with a rousing La Marseillaise to get FRA going with a packed full stadium cheering them on. Dismiss them at your peril, these are the best 2 teams in the world going directly head to head, blow for blow and it should be absolutely epic.

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