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So, just how far can these Wallabies go in this Rugby World Cup?
With the Wallabies now in Japan and final preparations underway for their opening match against Fiji on September 21 at the Sapporo Dome, the question begs, ‘How far can these Wallabies go in this Rugby World Cup’?
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To answer this question, I think it needs to be broken into several points of consideration; the pool stage, game plans and selections to defeat Fiji and Wales and other results to arrive at a conclusion.
The Wallabies are drawn in Pool D along with Fiji, Georgia, Wales, and Uruguay. Hardly the ‘Pool of Death’ of the 2015 World Cup where the Wallabies had to overcome hosts England, the might of Wales and the improving Fijian’s to qualify for the finals stage which they did admirably.
With respect to Uruguay and the ever-improving Georgians, the Wallabies should only be genuinely troubled by both Fiji and Wales in the pool stage of this tournament. Winning pool D is vital to the Wallabies going longer into the tournament as if they stumble and finish second, it’s likely the Wallabies will face Eddie Jones’ England at the quarter-finals stage. That would likely see Australia bowing out as England under Jones have not been troubled by Michael Cheika’s Wallabies in the last six encounters.
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Looking at the pool, the Fijians under the guidance of their vastly underrated coach New Zealander John Mckee will be competitive given their squad does boast European based professionals including a strike, X- factor weapon in former NRL winger Semi Radradra and the Edinburgh based Number 8 Viliame Mata who was one of the nominated candidates for the 2019 European Player of the year.
The talent within the playing roster coupled with a more disciplined approach to the game including attention towards fitness levels has borne fruit evident by the defeat of Tier 1 nation France on French soil in 2018.
One would expect the Fijians to bring their natural running rugby on the back of a more professional approach to set-piece and defensive patterns that ultimately makes them an adversary the Wallabies will need to respect but should have the class to overcome.
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The Welsh side, on the other hand, is a different beast. Recently rated the number one world-ranked side, albeit briefly, the Welsh are a side that knows it can compete with the very best and are expected to finish on top of Pool D. Their preparation has been hampered by the loss of the formidable backrower Taulupe Faletau and playmaker Gareth Anscombe, yet I expect coach Warren Gatland would continue his plan of playing possession rugby as much as possible and giving the Wallabies nothing and little opportunity to counter-attack.
The Wallabies take on Wales on 29 September at Tokyo Stadium, a week after the Fijian clash.
In preparation for both crucial matches, the Wallabies should be looking to select essentially the same matchday 23. One that has a greater ability to disturb the oppositions set-piece, compete at the recycle, defend the gain line and furthermore the ability to defend at width. The latter being vital as the width is where the Welsh have been attacking, utilising the likes of George North and Leigh Halfpenny and also their pacey back row of Josh Navidi and British Lion Justin Tipuric.
I would expect the Fijians to do the same as they have the pace at their disposal in the likes of Radradra and the Wallabies only possess one outside back with genuine pace being their own Fijian in Marieke Koroibete. Unless their defensive structures are communicating and remain connected the Wallabies could be exposed on the fringes by such pace.
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To combat this, I suggest that the Wallabies must revisit the selections of their back row. Whilst the selection of Michael Hooper, Isa Naisarani and Lukhan Salakia-Loto may appear attractive, is Michael Hooper a significant enough influence at the recycle? In comparison to David Pocock, absolutely not.
Yet Hooper is a formidable defender who can operate out wide and has the pace to do so. David Pocock has the fitness to get to the recycle, but the pace to make the initial covering tackles if required? Perhaps not.
No doubt the Wallaby selectors have a challenge ahead of them when considering the Hooper, Pocock selection.
If I had the ear of the selectors I’d suggest selecting David Pocock as the veteran would not only draw the likes of Josh Navidi and Justin Tipuric into the recycle to defuse his prowess in that facet of play it would reduce Wales ability to play at width thus making it easier for the Wallabies to defend those channels and hinder the preferred Welsh attacking system.
Furthermore, Isa Naisarani is a done deal at Number 8. He has impressed greatly since making his debut earlier in the year and will only benefit by longer periods in the starting team. The Wallabies should not flirt with the ‘Pooper’ selection as it does impede their lineout.
It is the blindside flanker role that success could hinge on. Whilst the incumbent Lukhan Salakia-Loto is the bigger frame and can be a devastating ball runner and an effective lineout forward, he tends to get caught upright in the contact at times and is a poor defender in the wider channels. The Welsh will identify when he is caught in such a channel and target him accordingly with pace and multiple running options. I think he is a defensive nightmare waiting to happen, especially if the opposition can get numbers wide.
This is where the speed of Jack Dempsey may become a better option for the Wallabies. Equally as effective as Salakia-Loto in the lineout, Dempsey may not possess the direct bullocking charge of a Salakia-Loto, yet he is a ball runner who possesses footwork that would be the envy of any matador.
Dempsey’s ability to shift his point of attack whilst under pressure and in possession makes him a difficult attacking option to defend. Furthermore, his speed and impressive reading of the game allows him to defend more astutely in the wider channels than the incumbent Lukhan Salakia-Loto who is slower in pace and in reaction.
The selection of a Pocock, Naisarani, Dempsey back row, in my opinion, affords the Wallabies the greater chance of thwarting the genesis of any Fijian or Welsh attack from the set-piece and the recycle thus making it more difficult to have numbers surging at width. However what impact would that have on the Wallaby attack and on-field leadership?
This will be a bit of a conundrum for the Wallaby selectors considering Michael Hooper is the captain of the side however has David Pocock shown numerous times he can lead the Wallabies.
I don’t think the Wallabies attack would weaken with the selection of Dempsey and Pocock and not that of Salakia-Loto and Hooper in the starting 23.
Both Salakia-Loto and Hooper are strong runners of the ball, so where does the gain line running come from if they are not selected? I suggest the Wallabies should be consistently exposing the 10-12-13 channel of the Fijians and Welsh with the likes of Samu Kerevi, Tevita Kurindrani or Jordan Petaia.
Neither of Fiji’s flyhalf Ben Volavola or Wales’ inside centre Hadleigh Parkes are great defenders, despite the latter improving in recent times. When the Wallabies were defeated by the Welsh last November in Cardiff the Wallabies attack was abysmal. Seldom did they look to take on Hadleigh Parkes who just a week prior was exposed by a lacklustre Scottish side missing four tackles.
Parkes defended the centre of the field, yet the Wallabies persisted in out the back-rubbish plays and width at all costs without really ever putting the Kiwi journeyman in two minds. That must change.
Under the Shaun Berne-led, revitalised, flatter Wallaby attack, coupled with the selectors finally acknowledging that Samu Kerevi is best suited as an inside centre, first phase attacking options off Kerevi flooding Parks’ defensive channel will cause the Welsh defensive structures plenty of gain line issues and that is where the Wallabies should look to tear the fabric of the Welsh defence and likewise for Ben Volavola if he defends in the front line for Fiji.
In conclusion, I think the Wallabies could make the semi-finals of this tournament if they get their selections and tactics right for the Fijian and Welsh tests.
Furthermore, if the Wallabies can avoid England at the quarter-final stages by winning their pool and the English not faltering against France or Argentina in theirs then I think the Wallabies could progress as they have the team to defeat France or Argentina in a quarter-final.
If the Wallabies make the semi-finals then anything could happen! It’s a Rugby World Cup after all.
My Wallaby side to take on Fiji and Wales
(1) James Slipper
(2) Tolo Latu
(3) Alan Alaalatoa
(4) Rory Arnold
(5) Izack Rodda
(6) Jack Dempsey
(7) David Pocock (VC)
(8) Isa Naisarani
(9) Nic White
(10) Christina Lealiifano
(11) Marike Koroibete
(12) Samu Kerevi
(13) Tevita Kurindrani
(14) Reece Hodge
(15) Kurtley Beale
(16) Folau Fainga’a
(17) Scott Sio
(18) Taniela Toupo
(19) Adam Coleman
(20) Michael Hooper (C)
(21) Will Genia
(22) Matt Toomua
(23) James O’Connor
The Season with Hamilton Boys High School – Trailer:
Comments on RugbyPass
“Over 80% of the World Cup squad are over 30” No it isn’t lol
1 Go to commentsTyrel Lomax the best AB prop since Carl Hayman. Absolutely destroyed the Boks in RWC Final and is monstering allcomers in Super this season. Should be a monster battle vs touring Poms, always deliver a power pack.
1 Go to commentsEye gouging seems like such a strong term for what can only be described as a poke in the eye. When I think of eye gouging I think of someone trying to intentionally pop someone’s eyeball out. it’s like calling a high-tackle attempted decapitation.
3 Go to commentsGreat article. No insights to add, just wanted to say that. :)
1 Go to commentsLeinster are going to win the world cup.
13 Go to commentsSuper Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
43 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
43 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
3 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
6 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
43 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
6 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to commentsYou must have been watching one team, Andrew - and even then you missed the brightest star in the Chiefs pack - Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 2 turnovers, genuine line-out presence and grunt around the field, and the soft hands of a back.
6 Go to commentsHaha what a crock of sh!t these headlines are. Moorby’s best year was that first. Still doesn’t seem to have the same game about him as when he was fresh but has bounced back well this season to be playing consistent tight accurate footy
3 Go to commentsIt’s even dumber than Bernard Foley not kicking the penalty to touch in the Melbourne Bledisloe in 2022.
3 Go to commentsYes, they are traveling well but it’s early days. The Chiefs were in front with 20 to go while they snatched a last minute win v the Reds. Keep calm.
1 Go to commentsThe failure of the Irish system / rugby playing style to produce their own backs has them looking elsewhere for innovation and flair - not that Jordie has much flair. He’s a converted fullback. The Canes have plenty of other younger options.
13 Go to comments