How a catalogue of red flags are mounting against van Graan despite thrashing of Ulster
Munster supporters exited Thomond Park on Saturday night on cloud nine following their record PRO14 derby destruction of hapless Irish rivals Ulster.
However, even this nine-tries-to-one victory couldn’t mask how the honeymoon is over for head coach Johann van Graan. The next few months on the road will make or break his fledgling reign.
Nearly a year to the day since he was confirmed to succeed Rassie Erasmus, the South African is clued into using the supportive crowds in Limerick and Cork as a 16th man to help get the job comfortably done at those venues.
His 85.7 percent home win record (12 wins in 14 matches) is not that far off the 90.4 percent (19 wins in 21) benchmark Erasmus set during his short-lived stint at the Irish province. But making home a fortress is only one part of a twin-pronged challenge.
Continue reading below…
Van Gran’s figures away from home are terrible and need swift improvement. Daunting trips to Leinster and Exeter are next on their itinerary.
How bad are his away day numbers? Of the four coaches who have held the Munster reins since Tony McGahan delivered the province’s last trophy in 2011, van Graan ranks worst.
HOW MUNSTER’S COACHES COMPARE
RASSIE ERASMUS
Home – W19 L2 (90.4%)
Away – W13 D1 L7 (61.9%)
Overall – W32 D1 L9 (76.1%)ADVERTISEMENTROB PENNEY
Home – W23 D1 L5 (79.3%)
Away – W15 L17 (46.8%)
Overall – W38 D1 L22 (62.2%)JOHANN VAN GRAAN
Home – W12 D1 L1 (85.7%)
Away – W4 L8 (33.3%),
Overall – W16 D1 L9 (61.5%)ANTHONY FOLEY
Home – W22 L7 (75.8%)
Away – W13 D2 L14 (44.8%)
Overall – W36 D2 L21 (61.0%)
Just four of a dozen matches have been won so far, his 33.3 per cent success rate placing him below the late Anthony Foley on 44.8 percent (13 wins in 29 trips), Rob Penney on 46.8 per cent (15 wins in 32 trips) and Erasmus on 61.9 percent (13 wins in 21 trips).
Already hammered at Glasgow and Cardiff this September, it’s a rot that can’t be allowed continue if Munster are to genuinely possess realistic hopes of ending their trophy drought this season.
Unproven van Graan was always a risky appointment. The province was crippled by timing when forced to dip into the global coaching market in summer 2017, Erasmus leaving them vulnerable when only confirming in late June he was quitting.
Van Graan was eventually anointed ahead of fellow South African David Wessels, who opted instead for Super Rugby’s Melbourne Rebels, but there was no great fanfare accompanying his appointment.
Whereas the way more experienced Eramsus ran the entire shooting match at Munster under the title of director of rugby, van Gran’s inexperience was highlighted by his responsibilities being limited to a head coach remit.
Further compounding the difference between what Munster had and what they were getting was the fact that the incoming 38-year-old rookie hadn’t been a head coach of any team since bossing his old schools team in Pretoria in 2002.
There was fleeting hope a director would still be recruited to fill the experience void. ‘All secure coaches would feel even securer if they had a really, really experienced figure over them, giving them direction,’ suggested Ronan O’Gara at the time. However, cash-strapped Munster opted against sourcing a director.
Who knows the exact extent this thinking is having on Munster. It was curious last week, though, how assistant coach Jerry Flannery, in an in-depth Irish Sunday newspaper interview, repeatedly sung Erasmus’ praise without making a single mention of van Graan, his current boss.
Assistants want to constantly learn but what is van Graan, who only ever worked in the shadows at the Springboks and the Bulls, really offering the likes of forwards specialist Flannery and Felix Jones, the highly rated attack coach, as he learns on the go?
It’s said Munster’s players appreciate van Graan’s arm-around-the-shoulder style of management. Look at how he frequently plays down media speculation about contracts and even steadfastly defended Gerbrandt Grobler when his shady doping past became a heated talking point last January.
But a catalogue of red flags is starting to build regarding the decision-making of an inexperienced head coach who is struggling for winning ideas on the road.
He often mentions in post-match media conferences how he needs to review the action on the video before properly commenting, a kick-for-touch philosophy that leaves you wondering how impulsive an operator he is in reacting to the ebb and flow of a game as it unfolds before his eyes.
Take the recent 24-point shellacking at Cardiff. Despite his tiring team being under-the-pump, van Graan waited until the 75th minute to change three of his energy-sapped pack’s front five. Replacement half-backs were also left on the bench unused in a contest where fresh legs were needed.
Dithering on the road isn’t new, van Graan’s most expensive error occurring when he started inexperienced Alex Wootton in place of Simon Zebo in last April’s European semi-final.
Hopes of reaching the decider were swiftly shredded by Teddy Thomas, Wootton’s direct opponent, who scored twice and gave an assist in a devastating opening quarter. What left the sourest taste was the sight of replacement Zebo instigating a last-quarter fightback.
If he was fit enough to do that as a sub, then he was surely fit enough to start rather than van Graan gamble on selecting a rookie for the biggest match of his career? The punt backfired spectacularly.
Defence is the area where Munster are suffering most on their travels, issues at the breakdown leaving their line exposed.
While they have conceded just 18 tries and kept two clean sheets in van Graan’s 14 home games, they have leaked 32 tries in 12 away matches without managing a single clean sheet. That’s quite a difference.
Especially undermining them is porous first-half defending, far too many opposition tries arriving in twos and threes in short periods of time. This season alone, Cardiff struck for two in a 10-minute first-half spell just 13 days after Glasgow grabbed three tries in a jolting 14-minute opening half burst.
Under the spotlight is JP Ferreira, the unknown South African recruited by van Graan last December to replace the much-liked Jacques Nienaber who followed Erasmus to the Springboks.
The Ferreira era began disastrously. Three tries were conceded in a 14-minute first-half spell in a home loss to Leinster, flakiness followed by a four-try leakage in the closing 22 minutes of a madcap loss at Ulster.
This defensive attrition has continued on their travels and it’s why salivating Leinster and Exeter are licking their lips with Munster respectively due at Aviva Stadium and Sandy Park in the coming weekends.
Those league defeats were evidence the soft away-day underbelly which existed last season hasn’t yet been remedied despite a full summer of planning. It needs solving by van Graan or he could fall prey to an IRFU intervention next summer.
Contracts mean nothing these days in Irish rugby. Look at how Matt O’Connor was ousted at Leinster, Les Kiss booted out of Ulster and Kieran Keane handed his P45 at Connacht. Those sackings illustrate how the supposed safety net of a contract through to summer 2020 is not much security for van Graan.
It’s high time then he started delivering much better away results to convince everyone he actually does have what it takes to be a successful Munster head coach.
Comments on RugbyPass
> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
3 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
34 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
5 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
5 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
5 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
34 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
34 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
34 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
34 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
34 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
3 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
34 Go to comments