Does Wales' back row have a size problem heading to the World Cup?
Over the years, statistics have suggested that two indicators of a successful World Cup are the height of a team’s backs and the weight of their forwards.
This is not something that everyone will agree with in modern rugby, particularly with teams attempting to increase the speed of the game, but it is nonetheless a way of measuring success.
Therefore, it could be argued that the size of the back row will play a part in a team’s success as they make up over a third of the pack. But a heavy and bruising back row may not necessarily be the recipe for success anymore, particularly with more mobile flankers being in vogue at the moment.
So when Wales’ back row is compared to the other top six teams in rugby’s world rankings in terms of size, a lot can be read into it as Warren Gatland’s loose forwards are the lightest and smallest compared to the other five teams (all heights and weights taken from each country’s website – except England’s simply because there is no way that Lewis Ludlam is 98kg).
Gatland prides himself on having the most well-conditioned teams, particularly in the pack. Their performance against England in the Six Nations is a testament to that, as they were able to outlast Eddie Jones’ side and pull away in the last 20 minutes.
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Their Grand Slam success itself was built upon defence and the tireless work of their forwards. After two gruelling camps in Switzerland and Turkey, they will only be in better condition. Gatland is also the only coach out of the top six to name an 18-13 split between forwards and backs in the 31-man squad, taking six back row players.
This option by the longtime head coach reflects his attitude and approach, that his back row are expected to outwork the opposition, and therefore squad rotation is key to remain fresh. With Australia, Fiji and Georgia in their pool as well, they have some tricky games to contend with and they must tire the heavier packs.
But there may be questions whether this back row is lacking in size going into the World Cup. In terms of height, each nation is fairly close, with Wales and England being smallest on average at 1.88m/6ft 2ins (although England are 1.9m/6ft 3ins with Courtney Lawes included), and the All Blacks, South Africa and Australia being the tallest on average at 1.9m/6ft 3ins.
While there is not much difference in height, there is a greater difference when it comes to the weight of each back row unit. Wales are the lightest, at 103.5kgs/16st 4lbs on average, with the All Blacks being closest at 104.4kgs/16st 6lbs, but the next lightest on average is Ireland at 108.2kgs/17st (and 109kgs/ 17st 2lbs including Tadhg Beirne) which is a considerable increase.
Wales are conceding almost 10kg per player compared to the heaviest back row, England, who are 111.2kgs/17st 7lbs on average (which is the same with or without Lawes). However, that stat is slightly skewed by the considerable weight of Billy Vunipola at 126kgs/19st 12lbs as the average weight is 107.5kgs/16st 13lbs without him.
Then again, Vunipola simply has to be included in England’s back row equation as he is possibly their most influential player, and arguably the best No8 in the world who is going to play as much as he can.
His weight and ballast are instrumental in generating momentum and front foot ball for England, and he is perhaps the player that Wales lack in their back row as Taulupe Faletau, who was ruled out of the World Cup, is the most comparable player to the Saracens No8.
The Springboks’ stats are also slightly misleading as Kwagga Smith, who at 80kgs/12st 8lbs, is likely to be the lightest forward at the World Cup. Without the former sevens star, South Africa actually weigh in with the heaviest back row on average at 113.5kgs/17st 12lbs, with monstrous ball carriers like Duane Vermeulen and Pieter-Steph du Toit in their ranks. This has traditionally served them well and has proved to be a success so far in 2019 as they won the Rugby Championship.
As for Wales’ Pool D opponents Australia, they are 109.2kgs/17st 3lbs on average, which is a fair bit heavier. However, when they line up against each other, Michael Cheika will field David Pocock and Michael Hooper alongside one another with, in all likelihood, Isi Naisarani in the No8 shirt which will bring down the average weight.
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So when comparing the likely combination of Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty, there won’t actually be too much of a difference in size. They are likely to weigh in lighter against their other pool opponents Georgia, Fiji and Uruguay as well, as Gatland has clearly prioritised the mobility of his back-row, with Aaron Shingler being the heaviest at only 16st 11lbs.
The concept of fielding a faster back row with two openside flankers may be a common occurrence at the World Cup, with the All Blacks often using Sam Cane and Ardie Savea, and England starting to use both Tom Curry and Sam Underhill, which will bring down the weight.
The Springboks still tend to opt for a more sizeable trio at the back of the scrum, with the likes of hooker Malcolm Marx serving almost as another loose forward.
What separates the Grand Slam champions from the other teams, however, is that the likes of Vunipola, CJ Stander and Kieran Read add a bit more weight to their respective back rows, while Wales perhaps lack that character. They instead rely on the brute strength of Moriarty and Navidi, who are hugely powerful themselves while not necessarily being the heaviest.
Those two may be enough for Wales in terms of driving back defences, but the issue may rear its head when it comes to the set-piece as their scrum is probably going to be lighter than their opponents.
In terms of the lineout, the extra height of their opponents could be an advantage too, particularly if Lawes and Beirne are used as flankers for England and Ireland, or Scott Barrett for the All Blacks. That being said, Tipuric is a great lineout option despite not necessarily being the tallest.
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This World Cup may be a fork in the road for back rows in answering the question whether fielding a lighter combination is the way forward to play with more speed and outworking the opposition, particularly in defence.
Wales, and indeed New Zealand, maybe the pioneers of this new wave of thought, but it will only prove a success if they get one over the bigger teams such as South Africa and England in Japan. With all of those teams vying for success, they are going to encounter one another and provide answers for what the back row future will be.
WATCH: Part one of Operation Japan, the two-part RugbyPass documentary on the World Cup in Japan
Comments on RugbyPass
I haven’t seen or heard to many whinging about Finau quite the opposite. The TMO’s have reviewed each time and taken no action, so if they have now been alerted it’s not from people whinging The player comes flying out of the line and launches himself at the attacker so it is probably ruled as a committed tackle, but at what point does it move to tackling a player without the ball Time will tell
1 Go to commentsThis cracked media record of aligning success or failure on head coaches is remarkable. Using the crusaders past history as an example, a more sensible observation and analysis could be that the recent head coaches had inherited a extremely successful combination of players linked to their traditional historical support of the Canterbury people. That period ended this year when the new coach was introduced to virtually a new team. And in a year where other franchises have grown much stronger than their respective past, it was always an anticipated reality that the coach and his new crusader team were up against it. Therefore, I humbly believe that unlike some commentators present, I laud coach Penny and the team for their efforts to date and I am sure given another term and with Canterbury behind them they will be riding high once more. Strange all this coming from me who lives in Taupo and a one eyed chiefs supporter. Can't wait for all future chiefs and crusader games!
6 Go to commentsGrt bench player..keep him there..
3 Go to commentsA Springbok 2-0 win: haha told you we were champions now shut up An Irish 2-0 win: the referee was under orders from world rugby to cheat us but luckily we don’t care because this is part of Rassie’s grand world Cup plan.
108 Go to commentsI hope they didn’t pay Jones fee?
2 Go to commentsTo be fair, the teams he's had to put out are reminiscent of those available to Gatland during his horrible run at the Chiefs in late 2020. Anyway, he's only got a two year contract and Wellingtonian Tamati Ellison will be ready by then, as will a lot of talented youngsters (like the Chiefs Gatland blooded). The Crusaders are planning for the long term.
6 Go to commentsGreat to see more community spending leading to higher participation in the community. It's a long road but that's a good first step.
2 Go to commentsPoetic justice for trying to sell him to Australia as another kiwi saviour coach, not ! Deans was just as bad actually but McCaw and Carter covered up for him. That’s why they didn’t want him as All Black coach, even after Graeme Henry’s bumbling effort in 2007.
6 Go to commentsSACK HIM !
6 Go to commentsSafas are so triggered by Ireland. 3 consecutive losses, incl RWC. 8 losses out of last 12 Tests. Always excuses, of course, with Bok fans. Now Rassie with his “88%” nonsense, the Claytons Excuse is an embarrassment to Bok teams of the past when every test mattered. Their fickle mojo will be on edge for the Ireland tour. Have the referees been appointed yet ? They will need security. Have WR laid out strict guidelines for TMO’s and replays on the stadium screens ? Will the constant stoppages from Bok forwards for cramps and bootlaces be tolerated ? We’re not talking a dominant Springbok team here, they won the LOTTO Cup and they know it whether they admit it or not. The Disney doco has their fans positively fermenting internally, its going to be a nasty hangover if they get beaten on home soil. What will the excuses be then……
108 Go to commentsGreat role model.
2 Go to commentsOne significant tell, not a single Waratahs player stopped to whinge to the ref about Finau’s tackle. They got on with playing the game. Great tackle.
8 Go to commentsWouldn’t be a bad move if Ireland pulled into SA with a young side. Particularly in Pretoria. Invaluable experience getting thumped in the bosveld.
108 Go to commentsIreland. The Princess Diana of Rugby. I never cheered so much for a team as i did for the All Blacks in that QF.
108 Go to commentsWill be great to see the Leinster first XV back in action again after their cotton wool time…
1 Go to commentsLooked up Grant Constable on google and reply was doppelgänger for Ben Smith
108 Go to commentsIt is so good that we now all get excited and debate who is best and emotionally get involved. We all back our teams which is great. Up until about 15-20 years ago, NZ was basically on its own, and then Saffa, Aussie and sometimes French and English were there. We now have at least 5-6 really top sides and another 4 who keep improving. This is so healthy. So we should not resort to rubbish comments and unhealthy debate, but rather all be chuffed that the product we watch is not competitive, exciting and often uncertain. It would be so good if World Rugger could find a way to align the rules to professional players as well as spectators. Live rugby games are SO boring as there is SO much down time as we wait for refs and TMOs and whoever else to look at every small event going back endless phases with the hope of eventually find a minute infringement to then decide cancel what was a wonderful try. This is the ultimate cork back in the bottle moment and feels like every balloon is always being popped. Come on- we must be better with the rules.
108 Go to comments“upon leaving said establishment I tripped over a stool knocking some bottles into the air and as I fell I accidently dislodged a police officer’s teaser who was passing by on an unrelated matter there by landing on said taser which caused it to discharge 50,000 watts into me. Out of shock I shouted Ireland are going to win the world cup. Upon waking up I apologised for the distress caused by my Ireland comment. The matter is closed. If you wish to pursue this matter may I remind you what I told Wayne Barnes when he sent me off. I AM A BIG ASS MAN”. Or was it “I AM A BIG ASS, MAN” or was it “I AM A BIG ASSMAN”?
2 Go to commentsThe only championship the Boks hold are: Great value for the incompetence of referees during the RWC Moaning endlessly and champions of spewing utterly ignorant 💩 at all times. Displaying the dangers of a third world education End of.
108 Go to commentsSouth Africa and Rassie do a phenomenal job of treating the 4 years in between World Cups as nothing more than a training exercise to build squad depth. The Six Nations money that keeps Irish rugby afloat is unfortunately too important to allow the same approach, and basic population size means we'll never get close to matching the depth of South Africa, England and France. That being said, Irish rugby is in a relatively good place and slowly improving inch by inch. If the other three provinces can pull the finger out and actually develop some players it'd be even better.
108 Go to comments