LONG READ What does the data tell us about Andy Farrell's first Test Lions combinations?

Combinations matter in rugby. For Welsh fans, the combination of Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies brought such comfort. It wasn’t just they were the two best Wales centres, they seemed to have a unique connection which meant their collective value outweighed their individual strengths. Maybe peak Ma’a Nonu or Jean de Villiers were better individually, but they couldn’t replicate the innate understanding between the pair.

For the British and Irish Lions, this is all the more important because players have such little time to form relationships.

In this statistical breakdown, with data analysis and graphs produced by Bristol Bears sports scientist Jake Gillies, we’ll look at how Andy Farrell has tried to forge partnerships on tour in Australia as the first Test looms large.

The centres

 Garry Ringrose is unavailable for the first Test with concussion. Aside from that, the centre situation is deeply unclear.

The centre pairings are dominated by existing pairings from Scotland and Ireland. Nobody else has played more than 80 minutes together. This might come back to bite Farrell beyond just the first Test if injuries mean he can’t keep the Scottish pairing of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones together or reconnect Ringrose and Bundee Aki.

One criticism is we already knew what the pairings of Tuipulotu/Jones and Aki/Ringrose could do before the Lions tour and those early matches might have been better spent testing new combinations.

This conversation is made more complicated by the fact the Lions team will probably feature a bench of six forwards and two backs. One of those backs will be a scrum-half and the other should be a versatile back such as Marcus Smith, Blair Kinghorn or Owen Farrell. If Farrell snr goes with Aki and Jones, the most frequently used non-country combo, then there’s unlikely to be a place for Tuipulotu.

Equally, if he goes for the Scottish duo there won’t be a berth for Aki – who is widely seen as a game-breaker against the Aussies. Either way, the decision around who starts in the centres is the biggest one Farrell and his coaching staff face and the lack of new midfields trialled means it’s likely going to be a step into the unknown for the team.

The back-row

The Lions back-row is stacked with quality. You could argue whichever combination they choose will work but recent games have complicated things. This is an area where the coaching staff haven’t been afraid to blend players from different countries with the top combination being Tom Curry, Jac Morgan and Jack Conan – from England, Wales, and Ireland respectively.

Conan appears to be a nailed on starter which leaves the two flanker positions up for grabs. Morgan has impressed and he’s appeared alongside Curry, Henry Pollock, and Tadhg Beirne (if briefly). Beirne might have been the favourite pre-tour but the tide seems to be shifting towards Ben Earl and Pollock. That would create a quick back-row but would put a lot of pressure on Conan to do the heavy close-quarter carrying, most likely with Ollie Chessum and Beirne also covering a few roles off the bench. However, even when running through those five players you realise Josh van der Flier, former world player of the year, hasn’t yet been mention. Overall, the back-row is the area richest in talent.

The half-backs

What started as a simple choice – Jamison Gibson-Park with Alex Mitchell off the bench – has been complicated somewhat by the emergence of Ben White, especially for Saturday’s match against the AUNZ Invitational side. It’s probably still going to be a case of Gibson-Park followed by Mitchell but White has pushed hard for at least a spot on the bench. As for the 10 jersey, that seems a done deal with Finn Russell barely putting a foot wrong. It’s hard to see how Fin Smith gets onto the bench though given the challenges we have already discussed with a six-two split. He could play in the centres as well as fly-half but throwing him into the back-three would be a very gutsy, possibly foolish, move.

The front-row 

Let’s start with the simple stuff first. Dan Sheehan will start at hooker and rightfully so, while Ronan Kelleher will come off the bench.

The loosehead will probably be Ellis Genge. The Bristol Bear has packed down with Sheehan more than any of his rivals on tour, aside, of course, from Andrew Porter on Leinster and Ireland duty. While combinations in the front-row are helpful, they aren’t critical given the relatively brief time they play together. There is almost nothing between Pierre Schoeman and Porter for the bench spot. Schoeman performed well in the final match but is probably the third choice. On the other side, it looks like Tadhg Furlong will be preferred over Will Stuart. Furlong obviously already has a relationship with Sheehan but Stuart has barely had 30 minutes of game time with the Irish hooker. However, he has had much more time with Kelleher this tour which will work well off the bench.

The back-three

Had injury not struck, it seems very likely Elliot Daly would’ve found himself in the 15 shirt. His absence may confirm Hugo Keenan’s spot as starting full-back. The wingers throw up a few contentious areas, though. Blair Kinghorn is the perfect bench option given he can cover wing, full-back, and fly-half. He will be in competition with Marcus Smith for that spot but I think Kinghorn has edged it. Despite his hat-trick in the last match, Duhan van der Merwe was always a long shot for a Test spot and having recovered from injury, I don’t think he’s done enough all-round to unseat James Lowe. As for his wing pairing, perceived wisdom suggests Tommy Freeman will start at 14. On balance that is the best choice but Mack Hansen has grown through this tour and has a great chance to be involved in at least one Test. If Farrell goes for a 5-3 bench split then Hansen looks to be a certainty.

The Lions tour always stirs emotions. However, by plotting the actual combinations which have been used, we can try and remove emotion and predict what Farrell might actually do. With that insight this might be the first uncontroversial Lions article ever…