LONG READ Why England may be in better shape to win the 2027 Rugby World Cup than France

I would just like to see him getting a decent run of bench spots to find his feet, then we will start to see what he has to offer.

That’s a fair comment but he’s also a couple of years of conditioning behind them.

Sadly I think RWC 2031 will be his tournament rather than RWC 2027 but the more game time we can give him the better he will be for the future. Big learning curve at this stage of his career.

If they persist with the idea of Tommy Freeman at 13, which I feel they should, then he will always shoulder some of the load up the middle of the field. Probably he’s better suited to it than Seb Atkinson.

Which returns us to the question of why Atkinson would be in the starting XV. ‘Work rate and tip on passes’ is not enough. If you look at the profile of the best 12’s around the world now, most are big powerful beasts - DDA and Esterhuizen for the Boks, Jordie or Tupaea or poss Tavatavanawai this season for the ABs, Bundee and McCloskey in Ireland etc..

The only real exceptions are Len Ikitau and Yoram Moefana, who are bit smaller but possess exceptional agility and skills in and around contact. And both tend to play with a big 13 [Depoortere and Suaalii are both around 6’5 and 100 kilos].

Unless you have seen it up close, it is hard to understand just what a physical position 12 has become, and that’s why a guy like Levani Botia can play both 12 and 7. A lot of the demands now overlap.

As I suggested previously, ultimately it will boil down to where they want Tommy Freeman and Ollie Lawrence.

I’m sure Lawrence would have gone on the Lions tour had he been fit, so you have two top-class guys you want in your backline. Either they play in the centres together or Freeman moves back to wing to accommodate Lawrence at 13.

If it’s the latter, you can pick between Van Rensburg, Atkinson and Dingwall et al at 12. If the former, it creates room for Roebuck, Caluori or Hendy et al on a wing.

My own view is that Freeman has a huge upside at 13 and should stay there. Which means Lawrence at 12, who has the physical point of difference Atkinson lacks - at least from what I’ve seen so far.

“No. Took a look again and four of Freeman’s seven runs area are straight, and in between the 15’s. One was the launch play for Coles’ try and another finished Eng’s last try.”

As I said, Atkinson was the only English back who exclusively carried into contact through the centre of the pitch. Freeman’s carry to set up Coles try only made ~3-4m and was enabled by a lovely tip on my Atkinson. Freeman’s carry to score England’s last try was technically through the centre of the pitch, but only one French defender was outside him, so it was nowhere near the centre of the defensive line. It also wasn’t into contact, he went through a gaping hole.

“Having looked at Atkinson’s contributions again, I believe the main problem may be the lack of top-end power. He tends to get knocked down by first contact with the ball and ball-carriers often keep their momentum through his tackles without it.”

Yes I agree. I’ve been saying this for months. The view of Atkinson as a power centre has never been based in reality.

“you question what his function in the midfield might be?”

Work rate & tip on passes.

I’ve also gone through the game to look at Atkinson’s contributions. His first missed tackle was an attempted ankle tap on LBB just after 12 minutes. LBB was already over the line, and Atkinson had been nowhere near him when he started sprinting back to cover. The fact that he was able to attempt a tackle at all is impressive, and you can’t tell me that he should have made it. At 47 minutes he got stepped by Jalibert, which is the only unambiguous defensive error he made all match. At 78 minutes he got bounced off a tackle, but the tackle had already pretty much been completed by Underhill, so its hard to see Atkinson’s failure to connect as an issue. I’m not sure what the stats guys are counting as his 4th missed tackle. Overall this was a very good defensive performance. Obviously someone like Lawrence would have had more impact in the contact area, but he would have also made fewer involvements.

Atkinson was the only English back who exclusively carried into contact through the centre of the pitch, so its extremely misleading to compare his metres gained stats to the players outside him.

No. Took a look again and four of Freeman’s seven runs area are straight, and in between the 15’s. One was the launch play for Coles’ try and another finished Eng’s last try.

Having looked at Atkinson’s contributions again, I believe the main problem may be the lack of top-end power. He tends to get knocked down by first contact with the ball and ball-carriers often keep their momentum through his tackles without it.

He’s not as powerful as Lawrence or Freeman and nowhere near McCloskey or Menoncello for example. So then you question what his function in the midfield might be?

I’m not wedded to the idea of Lawrence at 12 but I am questioning where Atkinson’s point of difference might be at a higher level than the Prem. I guess we’ll find out.

Atkinson was the only English back who exclusively carried into contact through the centre of the pitch, so its extremely misleading to compare his metres gained stats to the players outside him. That’s not to say he’ll be especially happy with only gaining 5 metres, but he got through a lot of work (including making more successful tackles than any back on either team), and his teammates will appreciate that.

Having 2 crash runners is very different from having 2 outside centres. A crash runner can still do a lot of damage out wide (hence why so many teams put a forward on the edge), but a lot of 13s aren’t suited to playing narrow. You also need to consider that Ireland have traditionally used inverted wingers as extra distributors, so they don’t need a playmaking centre. England play with a more traditional back 3, so there’s a danger that if they went with Lawrence and Freeman the ball would just never get beyond 2nd receiver.

“I’m sure Seb Atkinson will come again. But SB does not need need to make extraordinary efforts to shoehorn him in once Lawrence returns to full fitness”

I appreciate you would like Lawrence to be selected at 12, and that you don’t rate Atkinson. We disagree on these things and that’s fine. But I think its pretty clear by now that Atkinson is Borthwick’s preferred option at 12, and that he has a strong preference for selecting Lawrence at 13. No one is getting shoehorned anywhere, he’s just going to continue selecting his preferred players in the positions that he thinks they are best at!

That’s not to say he was perfect, and in some aspects of the game he was still poor, but he also carried more than any other English back, tackled (successfully) more than any other back on either side, beat 3 defenders, and distributed well.

I’m finding it hard to get to grips with these claims.

Yes SA carried 8 times for 5 metres net, the least number of metres gained of any Eng back - Freeman was 7 runs for 52m net for example. His tackle % was also the poorest of all the Eng backs except Daly at 71%.

I’d agree Lawrence needs to defend at 12 - apart from anything else he’s a great jackal and 12 presents many opportunities there - but a combo with Freeman give you plenty of wriggle room to mix and match with ball in hand.

For example you can run a simple ‘slice’: Freeman can run the straight line and Lawrence can run ‘overs’. We used to do with Gavin Henson and Tom Shanklin in Wales all the time!

Bundee and Henshaw are a slightly different equation, given they are both just as good running crash balls as they are carrying further wide

I doubt many in Ire would recognize this! They are both great heavy traffic runners, not outside links.

I’m sure Seb Atkinson will come again. But SB does not need need to make extraordinary efforts to shoehorn him in once Lawrence returns to full fitness, and esp as Freeman gets more experience at 13.

I don’t think I’m sugarcoating his performances, I said he was very poor against Italy, but he was much much better against France. That’s not to say he was perfect, and in some aspects of the game he was still poor, but he also carried more than any other English back, tackled (successfully) more than any other back on either side, beat 3 defenders, and distributed well.

The problem with Ollie Lawrence is that he’s England’s best midfielder, but he needs to defend at 12 and attack at 13, so fitting him into the team is a lot harder than it should be. I think putting him alongside a mobile 12 makes more sense than putting him alongside a converted winger. If its a choice between Atkinson/Ojomoh/Dingwall defending the wide channels, or Freeman attacking through the centre, I’d go for the former every time.

Bundee and Henshaw are a slightly different equation, given (1) they are both just as good running crash balls as they are carrying further wide, and (2) Ireland have traditionally used inverted wingers as extra distributors, obviating the need for a playmaking centre.

That’s why you’re a cyclist Carlos, teams don’t work the same way…😁

Nope. You go back home knowing you lost. Like that yank said, winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. You have to learn how to get it.

In the autumn Asher looked at least 120 kegs to me.

In fairness, at the time Asher was 105KG and he said it would take him about 3 years to reach 125KG and he was at 115KG last year amd will be interesting to see how big he is when he gets back.

Sela was still young then (19) and was 110KG and he’s put on a bit of size since then, so is probably 125KG.

Fasogbon was 120KG at U20’s and was 138KG last season, which is why he’s currently test weight, with the others needing a bit more time to add more mass.

I think Tuipulotu is 118KG, he’s quite a bit bigger than our other hookers.

That’s Steve Thompson size and we haven’t had that sort of carry ability for a while.

Nice read.

Though it forgot that in 2003, England had Wilkinson to kick the ball d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶*̶*̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶p̶i̶t̶c̶h̶ between the f**king posts.

Well it’s a prescient call by Nathan Catt, but I’m always a little suspicious of weight/size targets.

I’d like to see how Asher works out at THP first, I think it would be easy for him to transition back to the other side if necessary. Right now he’s ahead of both Sela and Fasogbon in terms of senior experience and development.

I think Conor is repeating Nathan Catt’s comments.

I had almost the same discussion with him before the U20 World Cup win and he said he thought the future ENG front row would be AOF/Baxter at LHP, he even called Tuipulotu at that stage when he would have been U18 and Sela/Fasogbon at THP.

It wasn’t a bad prediction for a bunch of ternagers but it was all about how long it would take to hit the size targets the RFU set for them.

They want 125kG LHP & 140KG THP and that will be tough with Ashers frame size to get there, hence LHP being more likely.

I do think JVP will get more chances, even if Mitch remains #1 choice and most of the backline turns green, gold and black!

I still think Raffi has a place and has a point of difference with his defensive capability and ability to take on the edges in the final stages of games (he’s the closest thing to Danny Care since he retired) but that game doesn’t fit Borthwick’s style and they don’t appear to be wanting him back.

Thus, I am starting to look at the next generation but IF they take Fin Smith & Mitchell, I think you get a natural trio with McPartland who also knows how to fit that style and game plan and is doing it most weeks.

I also think Bracken will have an interesting year learning from Tomos Williams next season. He’s got pace to burn and a brilliant pass, so also injects a lot of energy into those final 20 mins for Sarries when he comes on, so is another to keep an eye on.

I watched GB&R podcast last night, with Mike Brown & Marler on with Tindall.

They raised some interesting points about ENG, mainly around the discipline issues but Mike Brown raised the point that it was the senior players giving away the penalties & yellows - Itoje, Genge, Earl etc, who really should know better.

They talked about why there were so many and one comment was the on-pitch communication. In Johno’s time, you always used to hear them say (no pens), it was constant communication from that team and they did say when Murley chased the kick, it should have been shouted no pens, which Mike Brown said does temper your decision making to wait and not give penalties away.

ENG have a good scrum, line out & maul, so they should trust it.

They did have a good defence, which they trusted in the Autumn and fell apart by the Six Nations. I think this is the thing that made them panic, knowing they were soft outside, sol killing the ball to stop it being moved wide.

They also knew they weren’t scoring points, which Fin Smith certainly corrected.

For me, this still comes back to an issue with D, which they either knew was fragile and why they tried to stop the ball being put wide.

Selection also had a big part of this and I don’t think Steve Borthwick & Lee Blackett were in sync on tactics until that final game.

Whilst Marler was his disruptive, annoying self, he did raise 1 good point on Steve. He said “he’s one of the best forward coaches I have ever worked with”. The detail he goes to is incredible.

The problem with that is that he had a lifetime of knowledge with the forwards and if he tries to apply the same process and thinking to the backs, he’s got no chance.

Mike Brown also raised another key point - the reason why the fans are so quick to turn is they don’t trust Borthwick. When your Head Coach has greater aura (and authority about them) - think Rassie, Andy Farrell, Eddie Jones, it buys you more patience from the fans before they eventually turn (Gatland is a good test case). Mike Brown says Steve Borthwick has never built that level of trust with the fans and I think there is something in this, hence why they go quiet when he wins and turn when he doesn’t.

Lets be honest, Borthers communication with the fans isn’t great, it’s not a comfortable skill and he prefers being with the players on the training pitch than being with media (I don’t blame him) but if you are not good then you need someone else to do that - it’s no longer optional in the modern world.

I think when you watch that 1st video, you see the difference that Fin Smith creates for the players outside him.

Look how quickly he moves the ball and how much space he gives the next player with ball in hand - they typically get 4-5m between them and the defender, so they can make a decision on their terms and is why we tend to move the ball wider. He usually distributes early but he also mixes it up by taking it to the line and the short pop pass, or occasionally takes it on himself.

This gave ENG the time and space they needed to move the ball, creates more space and then they create the options off the 2nd receiver, which added greater depth and deception to the attack.

If you looked at the same clips with Ford, you will see him carry it to the line and then pass with only 1-2m and the centres usually get hit by the defender whilst trying to pass the ball under pressure.

I’d love to see a ratio of how many times the 10’s get the ball and how many times the outside centre touches the ball for Fin Smith vs George Ford - I think that statistic would be telling.

All Blacks!All Blacks! All Blacks!!!!!!

They did have hte benefit of many replays and from every angle it looked like the two supports got well in front of Flament! But hey, maybe the reffing priorities in that situation have changed?