Why there's still hope Ireland could win the Rugby World Cup
After their shock defeat to World Cup hosts Japan many will believe that the Irish are the proverbial duck dead in the water.
With a likely match up against reigning champions New Zealand, pundits give the men in green little chance of progressing past the World Cup quarter-finals, a feat they are yet to achieve in the tournament’s 22-year history.
Alas, is this a foregone conclusion?
Joe Schmidt’s men looked tired and devoid of attacking flair without their chief playmaker Jonny Sexton in their ranks. Regular stalwarts such as Connor Murray and CJ Stander also failed to perform. Even talismanic flyer Jacob Stockdale could do little to curb a relentless Japanese attack buoyed by a partisan crowd at the Shizuoka Stadium.
The loss was followed by an underwhelming bonus point victory against Russia in which the men in green laboured to a 35-0 win that won’t leave Rassie Erasmus or Steve Hansen fearing a potential last eight showdown.
A bonus-point victory over Samoa would guarantee Ireland a space in the quarter-finals – with the true fate of Pool A lying firmly in the hands of the hosts. Japan could top the group with a win in their remaining fixture against Scotland.
Let’s presume that this is the case – Ireland come runners up in the group and face the All Blacks on the 19th of October.
The pressure on New Zealand going into this fixture would be immense.
They will go into the game with the favorite tag firmly stapled on. It’s a tag they’ve taken in their stride for so long – until recently at least. With losses in 2019 to Rugby Championship rivals South Africa and Australia still fresh in the memory, the aura of invincibility that has followed the men in black around on the international stage is in tatters.
If we delve into the archives of the Webb Ellis cup we can see that group stage form isn’t the ultimate barometer of a team’s chances of success later on in the tournament.
Continue reading below…
In 2007 England were humbled 0-36 by the Springboks in what was billed to be the group A decider.
With two games left to go in the pool stage many feared that their World Cup defence would not outlive the preliminary rounds. Yet, five weeks later a galvanised England side made the final, only to lose narrowly again to the same opposition that had trounced them three games previously.
In 2011 France were stunned 14-19 by Tonga in a huge pool stage upset.
The same French side went on to make the knockout stages brushing aside England and Wales before agonisingly missing out on the top prize by a single point to the All Blacks at Eden Park.
What do these two teams share with the 2019 Ireland side? The answer lies in one pivotal area: experience.
In 2007 England looked to a nucleus of former World Cup-winning men such as Lawrence Dallagio, Josh Lewsey and Jonny Wilkinson to lead their William Web Ellis revival.
The French rallied around the likes of Dimitri Yachvili, Vincent Clerc and Thierry Dusatoir to turn around their tournament.
These players were the bedrock upon which their sides World Cup assault was launched and that experience and tactical nous was what steadied the ship in their tumultuous campaigns.
Both of these sides were forced to adopt a siege mentality against the damning press pieces and fan backlash to come together and truly unite towards a common goal: escaping an embarrassing World Cup exit.
Ireland now find themselves in that same pressure cooker in which England and France once dwelled.
Can they adopt the same siege mentality that has proved so successful in tournaments gone by? I believe the answer to that question is yes and if that is the case then we are looking at a formidable Irish side going into the knockout stages.
Despite Ireland’s loss to Japan, there is certainly that a similar bedrock of players on which to build upon: Rory Best 37, Jonathan Sexton 35, Rob Kearney 33, Cian Healy 31, Keith Earls 32, Peter O’Mahony 30, Connor Murray 30.
These men have won Heineken Cup Finals, a British and Irish Lions Series and Grand Slams but perhaps, more importantly, they have come through adversity.
Look back to 2013 when the Lions had to overcome a 2nd Test loss to the Wallabies to eventually win in the series decider at the ANZ stadium.
In 2014 these players made up the spine of a side that won the Six Nations with a title decider at the Stade de France despite losing to England in the 3rd round.
A year later they retained the trophy after losing a thriller in Cardiff. Perhaps the most telling statistic that can be attributed to all seven of these Irish starters is that they have all played on winning sides against the All Blacks. Not something that can be said for many north of the equator.
If Ireland are to take the field on the 2nd of November to fight it out for World Cup glory then they will surely need a return to form for their half-back pairing of Murray and Sexton.
Under their stewardship they have defeated the All Blacks once with Ireland and once with the Lions. (Kieran Marmion playing 9 in Ireland’s victory over New Zealand in 2018). If the pair tick, Ireland will tick and that could be the catalyst on which an Irish tournament victory could be achieved.
No side has ever lost a game in the pool stages and gone on to win the Webb Ellis trophy. Some have come close. England in 91 and 07 along with France in 2011. Joe Schmidt will believe his side can emulate this feat and go on to make their first RWC semi-final in history and perhaps beyond.
Comments on RugbyPass
Not sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
24 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
1 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
24 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
24 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
11 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
3 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to comments