Why New Zealand Rugby is up against it to produce a World Cup-winning All Black side in 2023
The All Blacks are no longer Rugby World Cup holders after eight long years of dominance, both at the tournament and in between it with a 10-year run as the world’s number one side.
The bronze medal finish on the surface suggests the All Blacks have fallen back to the pack somewhat, but it doesn’t mean they are going to be losing regularly in the near future.
Putting too much weight on one semi-final finish during a knockout tournament that is unpredictable and requires a degree of luck and timing is folly.
Continue reading below…
However, what should concern New Zealand Rugby more is the long-term results of the under-20 side that suggest World Cup wins in the future are going to be even harder to come by than it was this year.
Results at this youth level suggested this type of World Cup-result was coming in either 2023 or 2027. Instead, it is here one tournament earlier. The national pipeline has failed to maintain a level of dominance held by the senior All Blacks side for some time.
After winning the first four editions of the annual under-20 tournament up to 2011 in dominant fashion, often blitzing finals by 20+ points, New Zealand has claimed two titles in eight years.
In more recent years, the side has placed as low as fifth (2016) and seventh (2019), both worst-ever results at the time.
One could argue the format of the under-20 championships is unforgiving with one pool loss ending any hopes of winning.
But that is exactly the point of the Rugby World Cup. It is tournament rugby that is predicated on a win-or-go-home finals format.
At the World under-20 Championships, there are no easy pool games against developing or largely amateur nations like Canada or Namibia. It is also hard to argue that other top nations haven’t caught up when it comes to youth pathways and development systems.
The under-20 team is supposed to be the elite players of each annual crop and the pipeline of the All Blacks of tomorrow. One-off blemishes wouldn’t suggest much, over eight years it paints a clearer picture.
The New Zealand system now has to play catch-up in terms of the development of athletes, players and squads to deliver World Cup wins based on under-20 results since 2012. Success at the 2023 event in France will largely depend on how the under-20 players from this decade develop, most of whom weren’t the best in the world in their age group.
The golden crop of 2011 that includes the likes of Beauden Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane and Codie Taylor is going to need some help.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B4d6Ix1gz5C/
No doubt there will be, with stars like Damian McKenzie (2014) and Richie Mo’unga (2014), but there is a concerning lack of progression from the early under-20 sides of this decade to provide the depth that World Cup-winning squads need.
The 2012 squad produced only two All Black forwards, Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Nathan Harris, the latter considered a fourth-string hooker and surplus to requirements for the World Cup, while Jordan Taufua was never capped. Only Bryn Hall and Marty McKenzie remain on New Zealand Super Rugby teams from the backs.
The 2013 squad brought through some gems in Ardie Savea and Scott Barrett, and solid prospects in Jackson Hemopo and Patrick Tuipulotu for a total of four All Blacks.
Hemopo has gone to Japan while Tuipulotu has re-signed until the end of 2020 and still is a flight risk before 2023. Savea is world-class and absolutely a critical retention for NZR after his contract expires in 2021, as is Barrett in 2020.
Not one member of the backs from the 2013 squad has gone on to play for the All Blacks and only Michael Collins and Tei Walden remain on Super Rugby squads.
From the 2014 side, just one forward has progressed to the All Blacks five years later in Atu Moli, while in the backs Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga and Anton Lienert-Brown are the shining lights.
In Scott Robertson’s 2015 title-winning side, no new forwards have been capped outside of Moli, while only one further back, Jack Goodhue, has become a regular All Black.
The class of 2016 has offered one All Black from the backs so far, Jordie Barrett, while Asafo Aumua, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papalii, who all repeated in the champion 2017 side, are capped forward prospects.
Jacobson’s early concussion issues present concerns over his longevity and Aumua hasn’t been able to nail down the starting hooker position at the Hurricanes as yet despite his immense talent.
From the title-winning 2017 side that thumped England, no new forwards have been capped while Brayden Ennor is the sole back. Will Jordan can’t be far away as another standout from that group. The announcement of the Super Rugby squads next week will reveal how many more from the under-20 sides of 2017, 2018 and 2019 are progressing.
It could be argued that over this time it was as hard as ever to crack the All Blacks during their back-to-back World Cup titles, which has considerable merit. However, many of these under-20 sides are littered with players who failed to progress enough to make impressionable careers out of Super Rugby.
Based on what is bubbling below the surface at under-20 level, it will be one of the greatest ever achievements for New Zealand Rugby to build a World Champion All Blacks’ side again in 2023. Of course, they can do it, but expectations need to be reset following the exit at the hands of England.
The results at under-20 level, along with the lack of progression afterward, are going to become due at some point. The All Blacks will still be strong over this next cycle but to win Rugby World Cups everything has to go right. Having world-class depth is also an insurance policy for a few unforeseen hiccups, of which just one can derail four years of work when it counts.
Hansen’s long-running tenure was an undoubted success, but results are never down to one man. Every All Black developed is the result of years of work, from school-level up, by many hard-working people in the country.
And that famed production line hasn’t been producing as much talent that kicks on lately. Combined with ever-building pressure to retain the ones that do, a drain on top coaching talent in New Zealand, international rugby is likely going to be more competitive than ever between the top four to five sides over the next few years.
And winning a knockout tournament will be harder than ever before by 2023.
Sonny Bill Williams joins the Toronto Wolfpack:
Comments on RugbyPass
It’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
28 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
2 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
2 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
14 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
28 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
14 Go to commentsDoes the AI take into account refs? hahaha Seriously why not have two on field refs to avoid bias?
24 Go to comments