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Who'll join Wasps, Chiefs and Saracens in the Aviva Premiership Playoffs?
One spot is still to be decided in English top flight, while over in France nine teams are still in the running for three playoff places. James Harrington takes us through the tables as the regular season nears its end.
Three out of four sorted in Premiership
Bar a little late drama, the playoff picture in England is almost complete. Wasps, Exeter and Saracens are already planning a three-week season extension, while Leicester and Bath are neck-and-neck and clear of the chasing pack in the race for that final place.
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Matt O’Connor, who started his short season at the Tigers by watching them give up an eight-point lead in 11 minutes against their run-in rivals on Saturday, has three matches to ensure his new side have a post-season shot that at one point looked well out of their reach.
Leicester’s run-in looks, on paper, marginally more straightforward than Bath’s, but both sides have several blots on their rugby landscape this season which makes their immediate futures – not to mention those of chasing duo Harlequins and Northampton Saints, who could yet spoil the party – difficult to see in the clouds within the crystal rugby ball.
One thing is certain. Whichever side does finish fourth faces a trip to one of three sides that have only lost at home twice between them all season. And those teams that have lost at home are not Wasps. Or Saracens.
Results relight Top 14’s fire…
Only advanced mathematics involving supercomputers at the CERN offices can stop La Rochelle from finishing the regular season at the head of the Top 14 table, but a bit further down things remain rather more undecided, even chaotic.
Clermont and Montpellier, too, have all but done enough to make sure of their places in the end-of-season playoffs, but nine teams are fighting it out for the remaining three playoff places.
That’s right. Nine. Into three. With three, or in some cases possibly four, matches remaining in the regular season. Toulouse, way down in 12th, are six points behind fifth-placed Pau and, therefore, not out of it. Bordeaux, in 11th, are just four points – that’s a simple win without any bonus points – outside the play-off zone.
The waters are muddied further by the fact that four teams in the running, Racing 92, Stade Francais, Montpellier, and Castres, may or may not have a game in hand, pending a court hearing. And they may or may not gain or lose points as a result of that court hearing.
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… Except at Toulouse
Yes, admittedly, we said nine teams. In truth, it’s more like eight plus one. The Top 14 side least likely to finish in the top six is one of its biggest. Toulouse, a team that have never in their history failed to do what they are almost certainly about to fail to do.
It’s very unlikely, but it is still mathematically possible for them to be relegated. They would have to fail to score a single point in their remaining three games, while 13th-placed Grenoble would have to pick up three bonus-point wins to overtake them.
So far, unlike, say, Toulon’s Mourad Boudjellal, club president Rene Bouscatel has resisted the urge to show young coach Ugo Mola the door – but he did issue one of those dreaded votes of confidence in his manager two days before Toulouse went to Marseille and lost against Toulon.
But it’s an indication of how far the club’s star has fallen that, just five years after the most recent of their 19 French championships and seven years after their last European Cup triumph, they are contemplating relative humiliation this season, while the very real prospect of a season away from European club rugby’s top table is actually something they can barely afford.
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No wonder Bouscatel was spotted sitting in the Toulouse dugout after the Toulon defeat looking like a wet weekend in Wigan.
Three into two in the Pro 12
Leinster and Munster have the top two Pro 12 spots almost but not quite completely sewn up in the race for the playoffs. With three matches remaining leaders Leinster are two points ahead of their rivals in red from the southwest, and nine points clear of third-placed Ospreys. Barring rugby disasters, then, it’s safe to say both Pro 12 semifinals will be in Ireland. But three teams – Ospreys, Scarlets and Ulster remain firmly in the race for the final two playoff spots.
Meanwhile, in the special Italian section of the Pro 12 – which you’ll find by looking at the bottom of the table – Zebre, for so long the basement club of the competition, stole a march on rivals Treviso by claiming their second victory in as many weeks. Their 29-14 win over Newport-Gwent Dragons was the first time they had won two Pro 12 games in a row since Christmas 2015, and moved them off the bottom and into the Italian Champions Cup spot.
Watch every match of the Aviva Premiership & Top 14 streaming live on rugbypass.com, home of the best online rugby coverage including news, highlights, previews & reviews, live scores, and more!
Comments on RugbyPass
A lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
3 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
1 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
2 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
2 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
3 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
2 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
4 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
21 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
21 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
3 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
3 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to commentsMake what step up? Manie has a World Cup winner’s medal around his neck and changed the way the Springboks can play. He doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone. The win record of the Boks with him in the team is tremendous. Sacha can be wonderful and I hope he has a very succesful Bok career, but comparing him to Manie in terms of the next Bok flyhalf is very strange. Manie is the incumbent (not the next) and doing pretty incredibly.
4 Go to comments