The Springboks have just made it harder for themselves
So it’ll be more of the same. To be precise, it’ll be more of exactly the same. For only the second time in their time together in charge of the Springboks, a run that stretches 64 Tests all the way back to June 2018, Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus have named an identical match-day 23 for two consecutive matches.
Listening to Nienaber at the teams’ announcement, it makes perfect sense. He pointed out that to a man, each of his players put in exemplary shifts against France in their breathless victory in the quarterfinals last week. Though Jesse Kriel required stitches on a gash to his head, Nienaber also revealed that none of his charges had picked up an injury.
Form and confidence are two variables that are beyond the analysis of number crunchers, but they count just as much as gainline dominance and tackle percentages. One might argue that they count for more. And it’ll be difficult to find a more confident group of men than the 23 that dumped out the hosts in Paris last week.
However, it’s hard not to wonder if Nienaber and Erasmus missed a trick. Of course this comes with the blinking caveat that Erasmus and Nianaber, along with Mzwandile Stick, Felix Jones and various other members of the back-room team whose opinions would all be valued, are World Cup winning coaches. They clearly know what they’re doing. What’s more, they have the complete buy-in of the South African rugby public. They could name several RugbyPass columnists and editors in their squad and there would at least be a portion of fans who’d support the decision.
Having said that, I believe that Steve Borthwick, Owen Farrell and the rest of the unfancied men in white with red roses on their chest will look at the Springboks squad and think that things could have been worse had a different group been selected. South Africa will start as favourites, and I have almost no doubt that they will triumph on Saturday to meet the All Blacks in the final (with apologies to Argentina), but this might be a lot tighter than it should have been.
England have served absolute dross in this tournament. That needs to be acknowledged. What’s more, it’s much of the same dross they’ve been serving for some time, even before Eddie Jones was shown the door after getting stuffed by the Boks in Twickenham last Autumn. Borthwick was shoe-horned in and tasked with steadying a wobbling ship. Say what you want about the brand of rugby they’ve played but the former Leicester Tigers boss has done just that.
It’s been attritional, it’s been pretty hard to watch, but it has been efficient. It’s true they’ve been gifted the easiest route to the last four, but when they were asked to win games they might have otherwise lost – against Argentina and Fiji – they came out on top.
Much of this has been a result of their well-functioning line-out. It should come as no surprise that a Borthwick led team has a formidable set-piece and in Courtney Lawes, Maro Itoje and Ollie Chessum they have a trio of disrupters and ball-winners who can both make a mess of the opposition’s ball and provide go-forward for their own driving maul or scrum-half off the back. And while it’s wise to exploit a team’s weakness – of which England have a few – it is also wise to target their primary strength.
By once again opting for a 5-3 split of forwards and backs, the South Africans have limited their ability to place sustained pressure on the English line-out and maul. Of course Eben Eztebeth and Franco Mostert – the two starting locks – are world-class operators, and the extra support provided by RG Snyman off the bench and Pieter-Steph du Toit from the back row means they are well supplied. But the squad would have at least felt more secure with an additional forward to help keep the engine burning as the game reached its crescendo.
With Kwagga Smith named on the bench – as is right – the Springboks have a fairly loose looking set of replacements. The addition of Jean Kleyn or Marvin Orie would have provided the line-out with an extra body to work with. And if Deon Fourie is called upon to feed the line-out, he might need all the help he can get.
South Africa will look to run England ragged when perhaps they should have selected a side to grind them to a nub. The 2019 final might have been won by two try tries from wingers, but the real victory was secured by the tight five which was immense in the scrum, totemic in the line-out and insatiable in the maul. More of the same would have surely been a better paved path to victory.
England will relish the prospect of South African running it from deep. Freddie Steward, selected at full-back, will be peppered with high balls. Not that he’ll mind. He’ll start as favourite in every aerial battle against Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Damian Willemse. He might have his work cut out for him if South Africa repeat their tactic of sending Etzebeth to make a nuisance of himself at up-and-unders, but in omitting Canan Moodie, the back three has a somewhat diminutive look to it. England may look to test their skills under the high ball when given the chance.
All that is to say that South Africa have more than enough to get the job done. And it is because of Nienaber’s rotation policy that means his team are fully fit and ready for a final two week’s push for the title. But I expect this match to be a scrap when it could have been a procession. As is always the case with Springboks rugby, only the result will vindicate the call.
Comments on RugbyPass
“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
2 Go to commentsThis game was just as painful as the Hurricanes game. It was real fork-in-the-eye stuff.
2 Go to commentsNow if they could just fire the Crusaders ground PA guy who likes to play his dance music and just loves the sound of his own voice the entire game, even when play is going on. And I thought their brass band thing of a few years ago was bad.
5 Go to commentsUnfortunately when you lose by far the two form players this season in Roigard and Aumua, you're left replacing two game changing Tanks with a couple of pea-shooters. Which is also about the speed of TJs pass.
2 Go to commentsBit rich coming from the guy with zero loyalty to anyone or any team, including happily taking a players place in a league world cup squad because well, SBW wanted to play in it and thus an already named player got told he was no longer going. And airing stuff like this, which may or may not be true, doesn't exactly say you're a stand up guy either SBW. Just looking to keep his name in lights as usual.
37 Go to commentsTamati Tua. …the Taniwha NPC midfielder. Ollie Sapsford, Hawkes Bay NPC midfielder…doing well
2 Go to commentsFiji deserve to be in the rugby championship, fans love seeing the Fijian national team play, the Fijian Drua is a wonderful idea but the players can still be stolen to play for NZ and AUS…
1 Go to commentsThe first concern for this afternoon are wheather forecast…
1 Go to commentsWhy cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
5 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
33 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
5 Go to comments