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The shock team that ‘could miss out’ as Super Rugby playoff race heats up

Jack Sexton of the Crusaders celebrates following the round 13 Super Rugby match between Crusaders and Blues at One NZ Stadium, on May 08, 2026, in Christchurch, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
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Defending Super Rugby Pacific champions the Crusaders could miss the playoffs entirely this season, with former Wallabies centre Morgan Turinui suggesting a brutal run home could either make or break their finals hopes.

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Stan Sport commentator Sean Maloney has tipped the Crusaders to make the big dance, as the team searches for an eighth title in nine years. But the unpredictability of the ladder makes for an exciting couple weeks ahead, as the playoff picture takes shape.

The Crusaders are fourth on the standings with 32 competition points, but are set to host the top two sides over the coming weeks. A sold-out crowd at One NZ Stadium will watch on this week as the Crusaders face the second-placed Chiefs on Friday evening.

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If both the ACT Brumbies and Queensland Reds win their respective matches and the Crusaders lose, the serial champions could drop down to sixth with one round left. They would then have to beat the ladder-leading Hurricanes in the finals round to secure their spot in the playoffs.

“They play the top two. There are 10 points between fourth and ninth, so the Crusaders and Force. What price the Crusaders to miss the finals,” Turinui said on Stan Sport’s Between Two Posts.

“They could miss out. They’ve got to beat the Chiefs and Cane in the next two week. They could win them both too, don’t forget.

“Anything could happen.”

Round 15 looms as a season-defining week for all teams, with the Hurricanes looking to lock up top spot before facing the Crusaders. The Brumbies and Reds are looking to remain in the top six, as they chase crucial wins.

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Queensland were beaten by the Western Force last Saturday in Perth, which has seen them sit in sixth on 28 competition points. If Queensland lose and the Waratahs or the Highlanders win, the Reds would drop out of the finals bracket.

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The Force are currently ninth on 22 competition points, but have two home matches left to save their season. After recent wins at HBF Park against the Crusaders and Reds, the Force are now preparing to host the Fijian Drua and Waratahs.

“There’s a lots of that. Do the Canes rest someone? Does that help the Crusaders, do they have a rest the last two weeks because they’re going to finish first – they’re five points clear already,” Turinui added.

“Until you see the teams on a Wednesday, it’s hard to make many judgment calls.”

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1 Comment
u
unknown 45 mins ago

It will be a tussle for sixth between the Crusaders and the Sydney Rebels !

The Crusaders need a win or two BPs for 34 points .

The Rebs need two wins for 34 points they need BPs as well .

Jim Charmers does the maths for them apparently .

We won’t know until Sean Maloney sings !

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