Jake White: I urge Rennie to make a huge call that won't go down well in NZ

The hours are counting down to the first Test in Johannesburg and whisper it, but the portents are shaping up well for the All Blacks. The stars are aligning.

I’ll explain. If you were a rugby coach, and you were asked if you wanted to coach international rugby, the answer would be yes. Now, if you were then asked to pick any side in the world to coach most, without hesitation, would say South Africa, France, maybe England, but you can bet your bottom dollar New Zealand would be right up there. A year out from the World Cup, you’re asked where would your dream tour would be? South Africa, the year before the World Cup? Consider it done. For good measure, we’ll throw in a couple of friendlies, an extended 45-man squad and you can tour the Republic, play golf, go to game farms and have an incredible bonding opportunity. Oh, and we’ll make those warm-up games winnable and schedule the last game at altitude to replicate the first Test. Of course, you can play the Bulls. What’s not to like?

What I’m saying is Dave Rennie has nothing to complain about. It’s the perfect scenario. They are unbeaten. They have a new coach. They have renewed energy. They’ve been given the opportunity of an extended tour, playing the world champions, who are likely to be in their way in their quest to win a fourth World Cup, and they’re underdogs. They are in a helluva good place.

I have to say, I respect NZ Rugby for employing Dave Rennie. He’s 62 and has been around the block but it shows they value experience. They’ve also brought in Sir Graham Henry, for good measure, which is a masterstroke. Rennie is a born winner. He’s won the Japanese League with Kobe. He’s won Super Rugby with Chiefs and he’s won three Junior World Championships with the All Blacks. The only coach to have won a Junior World Championship and a senior World Cup is myself and I can tell you, it’s no mean feat.

When New Zealand rugby came knocking, I expect Rennie thought the call would never come, but for me it’s a sign NZ Rugby is getting back to what worked for them all along. In 2004, they lost in South Africa, the brains trust got their heads together and came up with a plan and had a decade of domination from which the book Legacy was written.

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Internationals

South Africa

08:10

22 Aug 26

New Zealand

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Of course, nothing is ever simple. As much as the All Blacks have momentum, they still have conundrums selection-wise. What really interests me – and clearly ex-New Zealand players – is the make-up of the back-row.

Now, I want to share a story with you. A while back, I spoke to the great Andy Haden when he was over in South Africa for a school rugby tour. He told me a story about how the selectors had decided the back-row they were picking wasn’t working. It was in the Buck Shelford, Jock Hobbs era. Andy said the gist was, ‘this is the way we want to play, either you boys can play like that, or we’ll have to find backrowers who can’. Legend goes that a selector was watching a third-tier game and it had a centre in it called Michael Jones. The selector narrowed his eyes and said, ‘I think we’ve found our missing link’. The rest, as they say, is history. What a phenomenal loose forward Jones was. He started as an openside flanker and after a knee injury excelled over on the blindside.

The first time they won a Series in South Africa was in 1996, when another outstanding All Blacks forward dropped a goal to win it at Loftus; his name was Zinzan Brooke. So, what is my point? Well let’s discuss their modern-day equivalent, Ardie Savea, and his role with the All Blacks. Since he made his debut, every All Blacks coach has gone out of his way to pick him. Indeed, he’s played 106 times in black with a No 6 and No 8 on his back. In essence, he’s been the first name picked in the back-row and they’ve found players to complement him. However, to my mind, I think him not coming on tour with the All Blacks for the first few weeks has been a blessing-in-disguise. They’ve been able to select combinations without him in the mix and it’s hard not to surmise the balance looks better. The other players will feel they can breathe, voice their opinions and be leaders in his absence. Making Codie Taylor and Luke Jacobson captains has probably been a beneficial exercise because they’ll have their own lieutenants, which means the dynamic evolves. The All Blacks aren’t alone. England and France did it this summer. Maro Itoje and Antoine Dupont were rested for various reasons, so it allows for a new relationships to form without the main men there. As a coach, you notice these sorts of things.

Ardie is a Test centurion and there’s no way you can fluke your way to that number of caps, but if you had Michael Jones, Richie McCaw and Josh Kronfeld in his shirt, where does Savea rank as an openside? If he was to move to No 8 and you had Murray Mexted, Buck Shelford, Zinzan Brooke and Kieran Read in the mix, where would he rank? It’s my opinion, he’s not as indispensable as he’s made out to be. Now he’s not there and they’ve played Tupou Vaa’i and Luke Jacobson on either side of the scrum and they’ve also tried out Anton Segner, who has been outstanding. There is a world without Ardie, so some will inevitably ask, should he start off the bench? I say that because the reality is some players do make more impact there. Look at Henry Pollock or Taniela Tupou, or Bob Skinstad back in the day. Dave Rennie has food for thought going forward.

As for the game itself, there’s a lot of talk about contrasting styles. New Zealand play with tempo and pace and South Africa play with power and set-piece, so it will be interesting to see which side can impose their style on the other. The public needs to understand that the Springboks scrummage to get out of their half and into the opposition’s half. They don’t mind knock-ons or a little mistake here and there because they’ll get a scrum penalty on the opposition’s ball or their own ball and that’s why the All Blacks must not concede a penalty at the scrum. If they can manage it, they will have a very good chance of winning. They certainly have the skillset to put the Springboks defence under real duress.

If you look at the stats, in 54 games in South Africa, the Boks have won 28 and New Zealand 25, so it’s pretty tight, while overall, it’s 63 versus 43 to New Zealand so no one can say they haven’t had our number. Saying that, a home fixture should give the Springboks an advantage.

If you asked me for one word to describe how Springboks fans are feeling ahead of Saturday, it would be nervousness. They are a very different beast to what they have been in recent years and remember, the Springboks haven’t played as a collective since November – forget the Argentina Test, that’s not the side they’ll play against the All Blacks with – any knowledgeable rugby pundit and fan know it will be very tight.

Of the individual battles, of course the half-back duel will be pivotal, with the talent of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Cam Roigard on display but for me, there are two guys who could determine who takes home bragging rights. In the black corner New Zealand’s Will Jordan. He’s already broken the All Blacks try-scoring record and since Rennie has come in, has looked even more potent. In a lot of ways, he epitomises the Kiwis I used to know. He doesn’t talk much, gets his head down and just does his job. There’s nothing flashy about him, but he is the real deal. For the Boks, in the green corner, I’m looking forward to seeing if Pieter-Steph du Toit is going to have the same impact he’s had on the All Blacks he’s had in the last few years. Can he back it up for four Tests in a row? South Africa aren’t the same team with Ben Jason-Dixon or Franco Mostert packing down. He’s got an aura but can he keep going to the well?

As for the Series itself, it’s not an empty boast to say it is the greatest rivalry in rugby. Between them, they have won seven out of the 10 World Cups and are the No 1 and 2 sides in the world, so it’s not up for debate. My message is strap up and enjoy the ride, the next month promises to be a roller-coaster of emotions.