Super Rugby Watercooler: What's going to happen at this SANZAAR meeting?
There’s a lot to talk about as we head into Round 3 of Super Rugby – and Scotty Stevenson is across it all. Here’s the low down.
In the Trenches in the Tron
The Chiefs did everything in their power to reinforce their reputation as the street-corner bullies of Super Rugby last weekend. They harassed the Blues at the breakdown, almost made them cry with the kind of well-aimed, old-school verbal abuse that would make a coal miner blush, and, as has become their signature move, tackled every Blues player who got within 30 metres of the ruck, whether they had the ball or not. It was beautiful stuff; like watching a President’s Grade team filled with former gang members take on the local Marist Colts.
Well, good luck pulling that shit this weekend. The Hurricanes may be famous for their flair but it’s the improvement of their forward pack (take a bow John Plumtree, Richard Watt and Dan Cron) that has been the real secret to their title success. They won’t be so easily cowed into submission in Cowtown, so to speak.
Look, we all know the ‘Canes haven’t exactly been under a lot of pressure in the opening two rounds, but what is interesting – and what makes this team a very tough proposition for the Chiefs – is their set-piece scoring conversion. Of the 24 (I mean, come on!) tries they have scored so far, nine have come from lineouts and five have come from attacking scrums. A further two have come from scrum steals, and five more from turnovers won. In other words, 21 of their 24 tries have come from messing up opposition forward packs.
For their part the Chiefs have scored 9 tries this season and wouldn’t you know it, six have come from lineouts, two from turnovers, and one from a scrum steal.
I know we could talk about almost every one-on-one match-up ahead of Friday night, but I’m picking this result boils down to an old-fashioned game of chicken. The team that blinks first in the set piece and contact areas loses.
Beaver!
Reason 243 for watching Friday’s game.
A heavy burden for the Highlanders
There once was a time when you could be committed for suggesting the Highlanders would beat the Blues at Eden Park. It was the sort of thing only a lunatic, or maybe Highlanders super-fan Steven from Dunedin, would consider. It has happened but, like finding a watchable Adam Sandler film or not losing at least one sock in the weekly wash, it remains a rare occurrence.
So uncommon is a Highlanders victory in Auckland that you can count them on one foot. Of a sloth. They have only thrice beaten the Blues at Eden Park – in 2002, 2012 and in 2015.
As if that past record wasn’t a tough enough hurdle for the Highlanders, there is also another more telling statistic that will be adding to the stress levels of the side ahead of Saturday’s showdown: Only two teams – the Bulls in 2005 and the Chiefs in 2009 – have made the playoffs after starting a season 0-3. Worse, the maximum number of losses for any New Zealand team that made the playoffs last year was four. You don’t want to be using those up this early in the season.
Resilience may be a Highlanders hallmark, but with Liam Squire (knee), James Lentjes (elbow), Jason Emery (Achilles) and Ben Smith (concussion) all out or still under medical review, they will need more than that to defeat the Blues this week.
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Bryn Gatland to the Crusaders
So let me get this straight. Now Scott Robertson can choose between starting Bryn (Hall) and Bryn (Gatland) at nine and ten, or Mitch (Drummond) and Mitch (Hunt). Well, that clears that up then.
It reminds me of a time when every name in the Crusaders backline started with ‘M’. There was Marshall, Mehrtens, Maddock, Matson, Mayerhofler, and MacDonald. The only outlier was Caleb Ralph, who decided to fit in by calling himself ‘Malfie’ instead of ‘Ralphy’.
Australia will be the stick in the mud
The SANZAAR nations meet today in Ireland to nut out the future format of the Super Rugby tournament, and it looks unlikely that Australia will budge on its desire to retain five teams in the competition.
It is understood NZ Rugby is chairing the meeting, which is reason enough for Australian CEO Bill Pulver to vehemently disagree with any suggestion his union should sacrifice anything. Australian Rugby has long taken a contrary stance to anything New Zealand Rugby has desired, and things don’t look like changing here.
The Rebels – the only privately owned team in Australia (and owned by a New Zealand businessman no less) will survive the cull. Australian Rugby would be on dangerous legal grounds if they were to sell a licence only to later support the team’s removal. The Force are currently fighting a rearguard action, in much the same vein as New Zealand’s provinces did during the review of the domestic competitions several years ago: by pleading with fans to come out in numbers to home games.
The Reds and Waratahs – the heartland sides of Australia’s East Coast rugby base, will be under no threat, which leaves the Brumbies as the other team potentially for the chop. It would be an incredible move to cut the most successful Australian side in the competition’s history, but after a couple of seasons of boardroom battles and financial strain, it is very much feasible.
Odds are that Australian rugby sticks to its guns and refuses to cut a team.
That leaves the South African conference as the sacrificial lamb in this decision. That’s an incredibly weird sentence to be writing given the fact South Africa’s access to broadcast revenue and time-zone equivalence with Europe have long seen them the true power broker in the SANZAAR model.
As mentioned in the Watercooler last week, the Kings and the Cheetahs are the obvious choices to go based on a triple whammy of financial struggles, historical underperformance, and limited fan appeal.
What if Australian Rugby won’t budge?
It seems clear that the ideal result for the competition would be to return for now to a 15-team competition, which would look something like this:
New Zealand Conference: Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders and Highlanders
Australian Conference: Reds, Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels and Sunwolves
South African Conference: Bulls, Lions, Sharks, Stormers and Jaguares
If the ARU retain all five teams, a Super 16 is still a distinct possibility, but quite where that leaves the Sunwolves is anyone’s guess. The Sunwolves surely aren’t going anywhere given the revenue access they offer SANZAAR, and the Jaguares are in a much similar position in terms of building markets.
A Super 16 would be a logistical nightmare, although it is fair to say that would be nothing new for this competition.
What Australian Rugby wants, and what it needs
The Watercooler understands there are some private ownership interests in New Zealand who would rather leave Australia to their own devices and concentrate on closer ties to the South African sides. There are so many things wrong with this argument that we don’t have time to discuss them. The obvious one from a New Zealand fan point of view is the horrendous ordeal of trying to watch games at 3 am in the morning.
We have spoken to several parties in Australian rugby, all of who have close connections to the major teams. Each is adamant that for Super Rugby to grow in Australia, they must focus on derby games and the trans-Tasman rivalry factor. The clubs want the June window gone, and who could blame them? The June window is arguably the worst thing about the Super Rugby format, yet the appeal of internationals means most fans have been willing to let this preposterous schedule slide.
If Australian Rugby is serious about giving the Super Rugby competition the space it deserves, there is no use in hanging on to all five teams. This is the reality they will be grappling with today.
Comments on RugbyPass
This is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
2 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
4 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to comments