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Super Rugby Oracle: Blues or Chiefs? Every team to back in Round 2

By Paul Neazor
Super Rugby Oracle: Blues or Chiefs? Every team to back in Round 2

Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 2.

The tipping season got off to a consistent start last week with 7/9 correct calls – only coming unstuck with the Chiefs upsetting the Highlanders and the Stormers holding off the Bulls. With some hard-to-pick matchups in Round 2, we need Paul’s prescience now more than ever.

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Force vs Reds (Perth)
An interesting match to open the round – hardly the high-profile game you would expect for a Thursday night fixture. The Force hung pretty tough in Sydney in tricky conditions, but beyond the hour mark never really threatened to win the game. Meanwhile, the Reds had to overcome a strong defensive-minded effort from the Sharks before getting the points in humid heat that made handling tough. Of the two efforts the Reds delivered the better one – they were prepared to have a go and to keep trying things until they made one work. The visitors should win this game with something in hand, and both teams would prefer better conditions that they had last weekend.
Pick: Reds

Chiefs vs Blues (Hamilton)
One of two matches fighting for the title of match of the round, and a tough one to call. Set piece, turnovers, goal- kicking, defence – there’s not much difference in any of the key stats for this game. The Blues are on a 10-game losing run against the Chiefs – their last win was back in 2011 – but don’t overlook that they have taken consolation points from seven of those ten matches. I’m sure they know how important it is to start winning a few against local opposition, as it’s the only thing holding them back in the playoff race these days. I’d prefer to do some fence-sitting here but I’m going to go against the bookies (who have the Chiefs as the 5.5 point favourite) and pick a one-score Blues win.
Pick: Blues

Hurricanes vs Rebels (Wellington)
This shouldn’t take much time. The Rebels lost by 38 points at home to the Blues, while the Hurricanes won by 66 on the road at the Sunwolves. Okay, the Sunwolves are terrible but the Hurricanes only played for 60 minutes and then went to sleep. The Rebels did much the same as the Sunwolves – when they missed a tackle, the Blues made big inroads; when they made a turnover, it was costly… The Hurricanes will probably start all the guns this week, and should win by a lot. If they don’t bank five points inquests will be held.
Pick: Hurricanes

Highlanders vs Crusaders (Dunedin)
The second of the intra-conference matches in New Zealand offers a number of intriguing possibilities. One is that both sides will be looking to sharpen their attack, as neither side was all that impressive at finishing despite living in opposition territory last week. And neither will want to be as generous as they were in Round 1: the Highlanders gave away 17 points through two interceptions and a really dumb penalty, while the Crusaders left points on the kicking tee and conceded ten in the only five minutes when the Brumbies came to play. Both packs went okay, but the acid here will be on the backs to get it done. Even without Ben Smith, who is out for at least a couple of weeks, I think the Highlanders should get it done – but there is already real pressure on some of their big guns to deliver a lot more than they did against the Chiefs.
Pick: Highlanders

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Brumbies vs Sharks (Canberra)
These two are very similar in style, outlook and week one results, so this is a tough match to pick. Both could have won their games last week but needed to do more – the Brumbies played for five minutes after halftime and the Sharks really sat back after scoring off a first-minute turnover. Neither showed much faith in its back division and neither pack was as good as 12 months ago. Historically Canberra has been a difficult place to go and win, especially for South African teams, and that’s the main reason I’m looking at the home side.
Pick: Brumbies

Sunwolves vs Kings (Singapore)
It’s only round two and here we go: the match that could decide the eventual wooden spooners. The Sunwolves were ghastly in week one and should have gone for something near 120, while the Kings couldn’t do anything against a very limited Jaguares outfit and the score only got close thanks to two tries in the last five minutes. As both teams are – for perhaps the only time all season – playing a team about their own level, that should at least make it close. The betting agencies favour the Kings and I agree with that assessment, but I wouldn’t be putting anything on this match at all since either side is liable to go down in a ball of flames at any time.
Pick: Kings

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Lions vs Waratahs (Johannesburg)
Another match that pits two teams whose week one report card read ‘Must do better’. The Waratahs were limited against a moderate Force; the Lions were moderate against a limited Cheetahs. Both matches played out in front of small first-up crowds but both teams won, so it wasn’t all bad. The Lions probably offered more but didn’t finish – they were certainly two or three steps below their 2016 form – and the Waratahs showed a distinct lack of playmakers without Kurtley Beale or Bernard Foley on the field. I’m taking the Lions in this one – first time out back at Ellis Park and all that – and they should be good enough to win by ten.
Pick: Lions

Stormers vs Jaguares (Cape Town)
This match 12 months ago was one of the worst of the season, and the Stormers, in particular, will be looking for a much better performance and result. Given the way they played against the Bulls, especially in the first spell, that’s no impossible dream. While their first round scorelines were similar, the Stormers were miles ahead on performance and were playing against a much tougher opponent, so I’m picking the Cape Town faithful will have another good win (and a bigger one) to cheer this week.
Pick: Stormers

Cheetahs vs Bulls (Bloemfontein)
On paper, you might think the Cheetahs were the better-performed team in week one, but those are alternative facts. The Cheetahs did enough to hang around against a very average Lions outfit that was nothing like its predecessor of a year ago, while the Bulls had to do a lot of regrouping at halftime after being shaken and shocked, and then battered and set upon, by a lightning-fast Stormers opening. That they did so was a credit, but the game was already gone before they got started. Victor Matfield wrote in his book that the Bulls should never lose to the Cheetahs. Victor, I’m with you on this one.
Pick: Bulls

TL;DR: Reds / Blues / Hurricanes / Highlanders / Brumbies / Kings / Lions / Stormers / Bulls

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Jon 2 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 5 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 7 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

15 Go to comments
T
Trevor 9 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

21 Go to comments
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