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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 3.
Round 2 was a bad week for the Super Rugby Oracle. Our usually-reliable tipper was made to look very ordinary by the Reds, Blues, Highlanders, Brumbies and Bulls, who all defied predictions to lose their games. His record for the season has slumped to 11/18 or 61%. It can only get better this week.
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Chiefs vs Hurricanes (Hamilton)
Hang onto your hats, as they don’t get a lot better than this. Whoever wins it will be top of the table – elementary, as both have perfect records at the present time – and both have played very well in different fashions to get there. The Hurricanes have slaughtered a couple of bottom feeders, while the Chiefs have two tough wins over fellow New Zealand sides already in the book. Both have been ruthless for the most part, and each would say they’ve had one slack 20-minute spell in two matches, which is not bad at all. This game is extraordinarily hard to pick because of the two wildly differing buildups but I might lean towards the Chiefs, simply because they’ve already had two hard games and have had to get their patterns right in a hurry. As far as I’m concerned, it will be a must-see and a no-better.
Pick: Chiefs
Brumbies vs Force (Canberra)
A week ago I would have picked the Brumbies, possibly by plenty, and moved on without wasting too much time over it. But given how the Force hung in against an admittedly error-prone Reds side and how the Brumbies let the Sharks back into their game, it may not be that easy. However, at Canberra … and after the Brumbies have probably had a decent kick up the backside … I have to say the home side has a lot more improving in the tank than the visitors and if they don’t get this one there will be some very harsh words in Saturday morning’s papers.
Pick: Brumbies
Blues vs Highlanders (Auckland)
This promises to be the second excellent New Zealand matchup of the weekend. Neither side is off to a perfect start or anything like it, but both are offering enough to suggest they’re not far away from getting it right. I think we can expect to see most of the heavies starting for the Blues this week rather than being on the bench – fair enough keeping the faith after that first big win, but these guys are a cut above the Rebels. The Highlanders meanwhile will be hoping they don’t lose too many more top-line forwards over the next couple of months. The loss of Ben Smith also takes a big strike weapon out of the visitors’ backline and those big midfielders in the Blues might make more holes than they leave open. I’m prepared to back the Blues again – they’re at home, they’re doing a lot of little things right and they are a dangerous outfit. But keeping 15 men on the park would be a big help.
Pick: Blues
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Reds vs Crusaders (Brisbane)
This has become a bit of a one-horse race in the 21st Century. The Reds won three of the first four (pre-2000) but since then the Crusaders have won 16 of the remaining 19. Many of those wins have come in Brisbane, and often in draining heat and humidity, so the conditions will be foreign but not unknown. While the Crusaders haven’t played at their best until the last half hour at Dunedin, that 30 minutes was highly impressive and it was something the Reds have not yet done anything to suggest they would have an answer for. I’m picking the Crusaders here, and they could win by a fair bit.
Pick: Crusaders
Kings vs Stormers (Port Elizabeth)
The Kings played with a reasonable degree of accuracy in Singapore but that was against the Sunwolves – the Stormers are a lot better. In fact, they’re looking pretty good, and have blown teams away before halftime in both rounds to date; even if the scoreboard hasn’t necessarily shown a big margin, their style, speed and dominance has been enough to close the deal. Given the forward might in the Cape Town crew, you have to pick them to win by plenty here, and it must be a game they’ve tagged as five points on the hoof.
Pick: Stormers
Cheetahs vs Sunwolves (Bloemfontein)
Last time the Sunwolves went to Bloemfontein they bled 92 points as the Cheetahs ran amok. On the evidence of a pretty decent first 40 last week another big score could be in the offing for the home side. Some of the rugby they displayed against the Bulls (who aren’t the worst side going round) was fast, accurate and difficult to combat. The Sunwolves made little or no progress against the Kings for most of their game, and gave up soft points off turnovers again; if they let those Cheetahs backs feast on spillings it could get really ugly really quickly. The only thing that would make me trim a forecast of a large Cheetahs win would be Franco Smith playing silly buggers with his team selection. If his best players start, they should get a hefty victory.
Pick: Cheetahs
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Sharks vs Waratahs (Durban)
The Sharks probably feel a lot better about life after Round 2, hanging tough to wear down the Brumbies in a match they could have lost on several occasions but ended up winning. The Waratahs tried hard to stay in the contest at Johannesburg but couldn’t, despite collecting five tries and playing some good rugby. Two things came out of last weekend that might be hugely influential this week: the Waratahs’ tendency to give away penalties (and inability to stop lineout drives), and the Sharks willingness to take three points almost every time they’re on offer – if they have to get 27 by kicking nine penalty goals, so be it. I thought the Sharks were good last week and their tough guys put in big shifts; whether the travel will have drained them is a big question but in the hot, sticky Durban weather I’m picking them to grind out another close win.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Lions (Buenos Aires)
Last year the Lions let this one go and it arguably cost them the title. This year I doubt they’ll be so laissez-faire about the trip to Argentina. They’ve looked pretty good to date, and Rohan Janse van Rensburg is about as good a midfielder as any side can put on the park, so this is an area of major advantage to the visitors. Up front the Jaguares are travelling quite well but so are the Lions, and I think the Lions are sharper behind the scrum just now. While it won’t be a blowout, I can see the Lions getting home by maybe ten points here.
Pick: Lions
TL;DR: Chiefs / Brumbies / Blues / Crusaders / Stormers / Cheetahs / Sharks / Lions
Comments on RugbyPass
What a dagg in more ways than one
5 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
5 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
4 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
38 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to comments