South Africa will beat England at a canter

Don’t you hate it when you log onto social media and you’re confronted with navel-gazing questions that place the person asking them at the centre of the universe? The ones that start with, “Am I the only one”, as in, “Am I the only one who hates airports?” or “Am I the only one who actually likes winter?”

Apologies in advance because I have a similarly annoying rhetorical of my own: Am I the only one who thinks that South Africa will beat England at a canter and likely clear Steve Bortwick’s side by at least 14 points?

Of course I’m not alone. There were thousands of vocal Springboks fans who still expected their beleaguered countrymen to get the better of Richie McCaw’s All Blacks every time they shared a field. But beyond the one-eyed jingoists, some very sober minds are making me second guess my initial claims.

The challenge with Marcus Smith & England’s pack | RPTV

Boks Office link up with For the Love of Rugby to discuss the Autumn Nations Series matches. Watch the full show on RugbyPass TV

Watch now

The challenge with Marcus Smith & England’s pack | RPTV

Boks Office link up with For the Love of Rugby to discuss the Autumn Nations Series matches. Watch the full show on RugbyPass TV

Watch now

Former Springbok Hanyani Shimange said it’d be the Boks by less than a converted try. Former forwards coach Matt Proudfoot told me this week “not to underestimate England”. An analyst whose opinion I respect above most others even predicted that “England would win by a score”. I simply responded with the head-exploding emoji.

I just can’t see how this England team beats this Springboks side. If both groups play their absolute best games England won’t lay a glove on the double world champions who twice swatted aside a Wallabies outfit that scored four tries at Twickenham. The Springboks are too powerful, too accurate and too experienced to get turned over by a team that has made a habit of losing close games.

Fixture

Internationals

England

20 - 29

Full-time

South Africa

All Stats and Data

But let’s wade into fantasy and explore the different ways in which England could pull off an almighty upset and hand Borthwick his biggest scalp since taking charge. Because apart from the Springboks having an absolute howler, there are ways in which England can go on and do it. It probably won’t happen, but in the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas, there is a chance.

There’s a blueprint at least. At last year’s World Cup England dominated the semi-final clash against South Africa by bossing the breakdown, controlling the skies, exerting territorial dominance and trapping the Boks in a slugfest in the rain. Freddie Steward picked at full-back and Sam Underhill drafted straight into the starting XV is a sign of their intent. But can they repeat their trick?

Although there has been no rain throughout the week in London, there is a 35 per cent chance of some showers around the 5:40 pm kick-off on Saturday. Borthwick will likely be performing a rain dance at his captain’s run, especially with the attack-minded half-back duo of Manie Libbok and Grant Williams picked to start for South Africa. Twelve months ago Libbok lasted just 31 minutes in Paris as he failed to come to terms with the slippery conditions in the French capital. If England can force a similarly early substitution to either of the Boks playmakers, they’d go a long way to succeeding.

No matter the conditions they have to prevent Libbok from playing off front-foot ball and harass Williams at the base of the ruck. Last Sunday, Scotland’s loose forwards turned the breakdown into a battleground and Jaden Hendrikse – omitted from the match-day 23 for England – had a torrid time.

South Africa should be sharper in this all-important area of the pitch with their choice back row assembled. However, under the new attack coach Tony Brown, some holes have opened at the base of the ruck as a consequence of how the team is organised.

Previously, ball carriers were supported by at least two teammates ready to clean out. Now they have to make do with just one cleaner which has, throughout the year, left those carrying into contact somewhat isolated. If Underhill can pick his moments, there will be opportunities to win penalties and turnovers.

England will also need to dictate the tempo of the contest and Steward in the backfield will be key. Once Bortwhick’s darling at Leicester and then with England, he has slipped down the pecking order. However, when it comes to plucking high balls from the heavens, no one in world rugby can match Steward’s safe bread basket.

Jack van Poortvliet, another player who has leapfrogged his way into the starting XV after missing out entirely against Australia, will likely kick the leather off the ball every chance he gets. He might not have the same box-kicking abilities as Alex Mitchell, who was so instrumental in everything that worked for England at the World Cup, but he knows how to hoist it high. He is also club teammates with Steward and their synergy could provide a marginal gain.

None of this will be possible without gainline dominance and here England might struggle. Their centre pair has plenty of skill but not a lot of punch and they’ll have their work cut out trying to breach the most rock solid midfield in the game. Chandler Cunningham-South will have to produce something close to an 80-minute performance – unlike the 20-minute show he put on against Australia – and George Martin will need to have an outstanding day running into traffic. Ben Earl is due a commanding display but if he maintains his sub-standard form, England will fail where they had so much joy last year.

Back in Paris, Courtney Lawes was excellent. As was Martin and Maro Itoje. That engine around the fringe got the better of the Boks which is why the totemic Eben Etzebeth was hooked shortly after half-time. The absence of Joe Marler – England’s best scrummager – could also hurt them at the set-piece even before the vaunted Bomb Squad enters the scene.

South Africa will look to run England ragged and test a disjointed rush defence that was porous against the Wallabies. The Springboks will also search out Steward and compel him into making tackles. And with the Springboks pack fresh and ready to let rip, they’ll likely have too much in the tank come the closing act.

Unless Erasmus’ team has a stinker, and unless Borthwick’s chargers replicate their heroics from last year, this will be a blow-out for the visitors. Am I the only one who thinks this?