South Africa are 2019's form side but they are just the sixth most experienced elite squad tipped for RWC glory
This World Cup is shaping up to be the closest ever, with no team emerging as a clear favourite. There is no more a straightforward sign of this than how the No1 spot in the world rankings changed hands three times in a month.
With that in mind, any area of the game where one team can get an edge over the other becomes all the more important.
Traditionally, one thing that has proven to be crucial in splitting fairly even teams is their experience, with the team with the most caps often coming out on top. However, when looking at the form teams in the game currently, that trend may be bucked this year.
Although Ireland may nominally be the best team in the world in terms of rankings, it is hard to convincingly argue that they are the form team currently. They have beaten Wales in successive weeks, but they were hammered by England at Twickenham and were comprehensively beaten by both teams in the Six Nations this year.
Purely looking at results in 2019, South Africa must be seen as the current form team having drawn with the All Blacks in New Zealand and having won the Rugby Championship. But they have the least caps in their squad out of the top six teams, averaging 34 caps overall (with 41 in the forwards and 26 in the backs).
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The two form teams in the northern hemisphere this year are probably Grand Slam winners Wales and England, but they both average 35 caps, which is the second-fewest out of the top six.
Meanwhile, the weakest team in the top six – Australia – are quite considerably the most capped, averaging 45 caps per player. What’s more incredible is that they average 50 caps in the backs, which includes the uncapped Jordan Petaia in their World Cup squad. Likewise, Ireland are the most capped team in the northern hemisphere, averaging 37 caps.
This raises an age-old issue in sport regarding the selection of players based on form or experience. Australia have clearly opted for the latter, much to the dismay to some of their fans, particularly as the 118-cap, 35-year-old Adam Ashley-Cooper was selected ahead of four-cap Tom Banks despite the Brumbies full-back being one of the form players in Super Rugby this year.
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Ireland may also be suffering a similar problem and while they may not have necessarily overlooked some form players, their experienced ones are being questioned. Their 120-cap captain Rory Best has been under huge scrutiny this summer as Ireland’s lineout has been well below par.
With the half-back pairing of the 74-cap Conor Murray and the 84-cap Jonathan Sexton put under a lot of pressure in the Six Nations as well, it is clear that Ireland’s troubles may be a result of their more experienced players underperforming.
It was inconceivable that Joe Schmidt would have dropped any of these players, but with Best now aged 37 and Sexton 34, they are no longer in the prime of their careers which makes the number of caps slightly deceiving.
Ireland has the number one ranking now, and unlike Wales, have beaten the All Blacks. #IREvWAL pic.twitter.com/CRw5GfiTP1
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 8, 2019
On the other hand, with the decision to select the uncapped trio of Jack Singleton, Lewis Ludlam and Willi Heinz at the beginning of the summer, Eddie Jones clearly prioritised form over experience in some areas.
Jones opted to omit Dylan Hartley (although he had an ongoing knee injury), Chris Robshaw and Danny Care for the uncapped three, spurning a potential 246 caps for zero – and the Harlequins duo certainly did not have bad seasons domestically.
This choice by the Australian may be an indication of the strength in depth of the England team, as Schmidt may not have had the luxury of having so many players at his disposal, but it nonetheless shows Jones’ approach.
Can this squad win the World Cup for England?
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Ireland coach Schmidt did make a similar choice with the selection of the three-cap Jean Kleyn over veteran Devin Toner and subsequently faced a torrent of criticism.
It is hard to determine which is the correct option until looking back retrospectively on the World Cup. While some veterans may be out of form, their experience helps them return to their potential.
All players suffer slumps throughout their careers and returning to their peak is part of the maturing process. Ireland’s Best may have received some flak, but no one doubts his class. Then again, in such a short period of time, it can be a risk to take struggling players to a World Cup.
Of all teams, the All Blacks may have struck a good balance between form and experience. They are the second-most experienced team in the top six, despite overlooking 108-cap Owen Franks. Equally, Steve Hansen did not select the in-form Ngani Laumape, who only has 15 caps.
However, it has also been said this season that some of their more experienced players are now a step behind what they used to be in their younger years.
In the past year, their experience shone through at Twickenham when they fought back after an early onslaught from England. However, they failed to do the same a week later against a slightly more experienced Ireland team in Dublin.
‘Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s make it very clear that New Zealand are the No1 side and the team to beat when they pick their players in their right positions’
– @dallaglio8 talks @rugbyworldcup, @EnglandRugby and @DallaglioRW with @heagneyl
https://t.co/C0xTnmbgwV— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 8, 2019
Of course, stats can also be misleading. While the Springboks have the least experienced team in the top six, only New Zealand average more caps in the pack. South Africa are a pack-orientated team, so this experience in the forwards may be noticeable in Japan.
What is also apparent is that seventh-placed Scotland average 30 caps overall, which is quite a bit lower than any other team above them. This could prove telling in the World Cup, particularly in a group with Ireland. Although the least-capped teams tend to be the form ones currently, there may be a tipping point.
There is now little more than a week remaining before these questions will start to be answered regarding the balance between form and experience. While caps have always been a priority in Test rugby, the build-up to this World Cup has shown that they can be misleading.
RWC 2019’S MOST EXPERIENCED SQUADS
1. Australia – 1,405 caps (forwards 705, backs 700);
2. New Zealand – 1,213 (forwards 706, backs 507);
3. Ireland – 1,139 (forwards 630, backs 509);
4. Wales – 1,090 (forwards 562, backs 528);
5. England – 1,074 (forwards 584, backs 490);
6. South Africa – 1,053 (forwards 691, backs: 362);
7. Scotland – 923 (forwards 489, backs 434).
- Averages are rounded to the nearest whole number
WATCH: Part one of Operation Jaypan, the two-part RugbyPass documentary on what travelling fans can expect to experience at the World Cup in Japan
Comments on RugbyPass
The shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
1 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
56 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to comments