The RugbyPass Six Nations 2018 Preview Series - Wales
Coming into the 2018 Six Nations, there is a positivity around Wales’ chances that has been absent for the last two or three tournaments.
Head coach Warren Gatland is one of the most polarising figures in rugby and there has been no lack of criticism of him and his coaching staff from the Welsh public over the last few years, with the trophies having dried up and the Grand Slams of 2008 and 2012 seeming a long time ago.
It was hardly an all-conquering autumn for Wales, either, having just snuck past Georgia and South Africa and suffered defeat at the hands of Australia and New Zealand, but there was an ambition to their play that at least gave fans hope of seeing a more clinical and multi-dimensional Wales side over the next few seasons.
This ambition, coupled with the excellent play of the Scarlets, the newly-crowned team of the people, has created a belief that Wales can go further this year and make more of an impact in the Six Nations. With bonus points again a factor in this year’s competition, Gatland’s men will be keen to top their tally of eight from last season, a figure which was just half that of the tries scored by England, the 2017 champions.
Strengths
Back-row balance and contact area work – The enviable resources that Wales have in their back-row has been one of the consistent strengths of the side during Gatland’s tenure and those options are still formidable, despite injury ruling out Sam Warburton and Taulupe Faletau. Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric will be at the front of the queue to start, whilst Scarlets flanker James Davies is in line to win his first international cap. Ellis Jenkins, Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler are also impactful options.
Midfield versatility – Another area of the team hit by a significant injury, with Jonathan Davies unavailable, but there is plenty of scope for Wales to keep opposition sides guessing with their midfield strategy. Hadleigh Parkes has been in scintillating form with the Scarlets and has been dovetailing nicely with Scott Williams, Owen Williams is the secondary playmaker option that Wales have not had for quite some time and Owen Watkin is a hard-runner who can keep his side on the front-foot.
Weaknesses
No recognised Test fly-half – With Dan Biggar sidelined for the opening three rounds and Rhys Priestland suffering from a hamstring injury, Wales will have to go into their matches with Scotland, England and Ireland with a relatively inexperienced fly-half. Rhys Patchell and Gareth Anscombe would look to be the front-runners right now, but Owen Williams could also be moved inside from the centre berth he occupied in the autumn. They are all capable of doing an excellent job, but those three fixtures are quite the deep end to be thrown in, especially with the contests against England and Ireland coming at Twickenham and the Aviva Stadium respectively and regular starting scrum-half Rhys Webb also sidelined.
Back-three thin and out of rugby shape – The news that Liam Williams suffered a relapse in his recovery from an abdominal injury was a real blow for Wales. He is in a race against time to be fit for the tournament opener against Scotland, but there is a worst-case scenario that he will have to have surgery and could miss the entire tournament. George North and Hallam Amos are both only just returning from injury and a way off the sharpness you would want from your starting wings. There will be plenty of attention on Steff Evans and Josh Adams over the next week, with both in the frame to start against Scotland. Again, like the fly-half situation, they both have the capability to be fine Test players, but they are inexperienced at this level.
Key Players
Ross Moriarty – With Warburton out for the tournament and Faletau unlikely to be seen until the later rounds, the onus falls on Moriarty to lead the way in the back-row. He is a man that leads from the front, regardless, but his impact at the breakdown and as a ball-carrier will be more vital than ever this year.
Rob Evans – Evans has quietly matured into one of the more impressive loosehead props in world rugby and his impact as both a scrummager and ball-player will be needed over the next two months. Wales are making strides in the way they play but they aren’t the All Blacks just yet, so if they can get this kind of dual impact from their loosehead, they will be better off for it.
Rhys Patchell – There is no guarantee Gatland sees Patchell as part of his preferred XV but when you look at what he has been doing for the Scarlets, his positional versatility and the injuries to Biggar and Priestland, it feels as though this is his time. Can he play with the same composure for Wales that he does with the Scarlets? If the answer is yes, Wales will be a dangerous team this year.
New Talent – Josh Adams
This could easily have been James Davies, who finally gets a much-deserved opportunity to crack the vaunted Wales back-row, but Adams has come from nowhere this season.
Well, not nowhere, as he is a former Wales U20 star and did an admirable job for Worcester Warriors last season, but his game has risen to a new level this season. He currently leads the Premiership try charts with nine scores to his name and in addition to that finishing ability, he is also good value to make big breaks each and every game, giving his side momentum and keeping them moving forward.
The leap to Test match rugby is a big one and there is no guarantee he will make it seamlessly, but there is no reason to doubt he won’t, either. He will be worth keeping an eye on during the championship.
Prediction
It’s almost a shame that Wales’ evolution in the way they play is occurring at the same time that they get their toughest Six Nations fixture schedule. Wales may have three games at home this season, but their two away fixtures – England and Ireland – are arguably the two toughest fixtures in the tournament.
As encouraging as Wales’ potential is, it is difficult to see them emerging from London or Dublin with a win. Three wins from their three home games is certainly possible, although Scotland are looking threatening, too, and that game is by no means a given.
It is a boring prediction but a 3rd or 4th place finish, away from the challenge for the title, seems most likely for Wales at this point. If they can see off Scotland, Italy and France in Cardiff and at least be competitive with England and Ireland, that will probably equate to a decent tournament for Gatland’s men.
Comments on RugbyPass
It was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
5 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to comments