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Joe Schmidt is yet to make up his mind on one key area
Predictable is a word that has been thrown at Ireland a lot over the past few months.
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It is no secret that Ireland teams tend to play a certain way, and under Joe Schmidt that has generally served them well.
Ireland like to go through the phases, with many of their tries coming off the back of well rehearsed set plays.
As pointed out by Warren Gatland recently, Ireland rarely tend to mix up their approach, and unless Schmidt has something special up his sleeve, we will see more of the same in Japan.
Yet it is not just Ireland’s approach which has become predicable. For the most part, the starting XV is nailed on, and has been for some time now.
It has not been a vintage season for Ireland, but outside of some injury-enforced changes, there will no be major selection surprises in Schmidt’s starting XV come the Pool A opener against Scotland on Sunday. Even those players who have suffered a particularly bad dip in form, such as captain Rory Best, will be trusted to deliver.
The only area of Schmidt’s starting team where there is genuine uncertainty is the back-row.
In fact, Schmidt hasn’t been settled on his back-row for over a year. The last time he picked the same back-row combination for successive games was March 2018.
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Over the course of Ireland’s four warm-up games it was the one area where the New Zealander looked to be really experimenting.
Ireland full-back Rob Kearney has emerged as a major doubt for Sunday's World Cup clash with Scotland.https://t.co/NzEiSRFbBS
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Not only did Schmidt experiment with the personnel in his back-row, he also moved some of his most trusted lieutenants to less familiar surroundings.
In their World Cup warm-up game against Wales in Cardiff, Schmidt started Peter O’Mahony at openside. The following week, the Ireland head coach played CJ Stander at No 6.
It is possible that Schmidt is just future-proofing in case injury hits his squad again. At the 2015 World Cup, Ireland crashed out in the quarter-finals against Argentina with Johnny Sexton, Peter O’Mahony, Paul O’Connell and Jared Payne all sidelined, along with the suspended Sean O’Brien.
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Yet there is also a feeling that Schmidt is unsure what his best back-row combination is, as it the one area of his squad that has been heavily disrupted by injuries.
Schmidt lost Leinster flanker Dan Leavy to a horrific knee injury in April. The 25 year old has been a regular starter for Ireland, and had he stayed fit, would likely have worn the No 7 shirt against Scotland next Sunday.
Schmidt has also had to plan for the tournament without Sean O’Brien, who underwent hip surgery at the end of Leinster’s Pro14 winning campaign. While not the ball-carrying destructive force of old, O’Brien still remained part of Schmidt’s plans before injury forced his hand. Just two years ago, O’Brien was the outstanding performer for the British and Irish Lions in their 24-21 defeat of New Zealand.
Preparing for training is as important as the session itself. Take a look at today's activation session gallery.#TeamOfUS #ShoulderToShoulder https://t.co/QbWU32AiWg
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Jordi Murphy is another player who has caused the All Blacks problems in the past, but misses out on this squad despite always delivering for Ireland.
Of those that did make the plane to Japan, none can be certain of their place in Schmidt’s first choice XV.
As it stands, Schmidt is expected to field a back-row consisting of O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, and Stander on Sunday.
But even stalwarts like O’Mahony and Stander have come under scrutiny this season.
Stander’s place in the Ireland team has been up for debate for some time now. Like O’Brien, his ball carrying abilities have failed to hit the heights of old. Leinster’s Jack Conan offers a more dynamic threat in the No 8 jersey. Yet while Conan has consistently delivered for Leinster, there is a feeling Schmidt isn’t fully convinced of his abilities.
If Stander is at anything but his battering-ram best in Japan, the calls to include Conan will only increase. Conan is certain to start at least one of Ireland’s pool games, and will aim to use the occasion as a platform to force his way into the team for the bigger tests that lay down the line.
O’Mahony’s place is more secure, if not quite guaranteed. Like many of his teammates, the Munster captain struggled for form throughout the season. He was part of the back-row that was bullied by England in March, and also played in August’s thrashing at Twickenham.
It would be a major surprise if Schmidt were to drop O’Mahony, with his leadership particularly important, but there are enough rivals snipping at his heels to keep him under pressure, and there is certainly a possibility of him being shifted to openside to allow someone else step into the No 6 shirt.
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Van der Flier is probably the most at risk of the three. While he has performed well for Ireland, he lacks the level of physicality and brute force that will be needed in a potential quarter-final against New Zealand or South Africa.
Rhys Ruddock will be pushing for inclusion, while Schmidt can also call on Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne.
Henderson is widely expected to parter James Ryan in the second-row, but the Ulster player can comfortably slot into the back-row should Schmidt look to change things around. Beirne is well used to switching between the second-row and back-row, and Schmidt outlined that versatility as key to his inclusion, while he also brings huge presence to the lineout.
Ruddock made the cut on the back of another fine season with Leinster, and is clearly highly regarded by Schmidt given how often he has captained his country.
It all adds up to what promises to be the most hotly contested area of Ireland’s squad.
We can safely assume what back-row combination will start against Scotland on Sunday. Schmidt’s record suggests that selection will be broken up before the end of Ireland’s campaign.
The Rugby Pod discuss Ireland’s World Cup squad
Comments on RugbyPass
Sometimes people just like a moan mate!
1 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
9 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
9 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
9 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
9 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
9 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to comments