RUGDAQ Weekly: Who's going up and who's going down in the global rugby stockmarket
The RUGDAQ Index charts the rise and falls of various rugby stocks. See who’s on the rise and whose stocks have taken a hit this week.
BUY! BUY! BUY!
1. Scotland. On a crisp, clear early February day in Edinburgh, Scotland won their opening Six Nations match for only the second time in the competition’s 17-year history. It was not just the fact they beat one of the pre-tournament favourites in Ireland that impressed, as much as the exciting, joyful manner of their victory. Of the 23 bravehearts who took the Murrayfield pitch, Stuart Hogg, Jonny Gray (and his big brother Richie), Greig Laidlaw and Hamish Watson were the standout players in the tournament’s standout team of the opening weekend. A performance like that counts for a lot – especially with Lions’ places up for grabs.
2. New Zealand Rugby. After losing Aaron Cruden to deep-pocketed Top 14 outfit Montpellier, NZ Rugby had a rummage down the back of Steve Hansen’s sofa and managed to stump up enough change to keep hold of fullback Ben Smith, who was also being wooed by northern hemisphere clubs. Eventually, a combination of more money, a generous sabbatical clause and the temptation of another World Cup in 2019 proved too much to resist. Job done – now, they’re out to hold on to Israel Dagg.
3. US Eagles women’s sevens side. Everyone expected New Zealand and Australia to fight it out for the title in Sydney last week. That didn’t happen. And while Canada ultimately won the Sydney Cup, most of the plaudits rightly go to Richie Walker’s Eagles, who completed a remarkable turnaround to finish as the tournament’s runners up, after their desultory 11th-place in Dubai. Next stop, Las Vegas, where home support may even see them go one better.
4. Richard Cockerill. The ever-combative Cockers’ portfolio took a tumble when he was unceremoniously dumped by Leicester at the start of the year, after nearly a quarter of a century’s faithful bulldog service. He has kept his hand in with spot of forwards consultancy work at Toulon, and has now been strongly linked to the soon-to-be-vacant Edinburgh job. If true, his appointment would be a strong statement of intent that the Myreside outfit have had enough of being the second rugby club in Scotland.
5. John Mitchell. As abrasive as Cockerill, and almost definitely more controversial, John Mitchell is almost 12 months into a three-year contract with USA Rugby – which suggests it may be time for a change. According to French rugby newspaper Midi Olympique, his résumé has been doing the rounds in France, where it has found its way on to the desk of the bosses at ambitious promotion-chasing ProD2 side Oyonnax, who just happen to be on the lookout for a new coaching team, after head coach Johann Authier and backs coach Stéphane Glas both handed in their notice. The Mitchell link is, of course, pure speculation, but on such issues a coach’s stock rises.
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SELL! SELL! SELL!
1. England. Despite beating a resolute and determined France, confidence in the England camp seems low ahead of the big trip to Cardiff this weekend. Dismiss it as Eddie Jones’ mind games if you like, but publicly worrying about England’s record in Wales, despite the fact that their recent record in Cardiff is actually pretty good, reminds fans of reasons to be fearful. To make matters more difficult, the defending Six Nations champions could be forced to pit a rookie back row against a much more experienced Welsh unit.
2. Guy Novès. As recently as November, France’s blue-chip coach Guy Novès was riding a wave of public support despite a dismal year for Les Bleus. He had rediscovered, it seemed, the secret formula for flair-ridden French rugby. All he had to do was translate performance and promise into wins. In the opening round of the Six Nations, we saw more performance and promise – but still, no win. Frankly, Les Bleus should have beaten England at Twickenham at the weekend. The patience of the rugby-mad French faithful is starting to wear thin. Novès needs a win, and a good win, against Scotland this weekend.
3. Jean-Marc Doussain. There have been worse Six Nations’ performances – flanker Mauro Bergamasco’s bizarre and error-strewn sole game at scrum-half against England in 2009 during an Italian injury crisis, for example – but France’s replacement fly-half’s stock plummeted during his 10 minutes on the pitch at Twickenham, during which he missing a penalty kick to touch that could have given his side one last chance at winning the game. Novès has publicly said that Doussain did not lose the game against England all by himself, but the coach’s obsession with the Toulouse 10 has to end sooner rather than later.
4. Scott Higginbotham. New Queensland Reds signing and former Wallaby Scott Higginbotham reportedly tried to play peacemaker after his companion was arrested for allegedly urinating against a wall at a mall in Brisbane early on Sunday. It didn’t end well. He has been charged with assaulting a police officer and illegally entering a police establishment.
5. Ronan O’Gara. When he wore the green of Ireland, fly-half Ronan O’Gara could do little wrong – he cemented his legend with a Grand Slam-winning drop goal against Wales in 2009. But as a TV pundit, he clearly has a lot to learn. Before the Scotland game he tried to short the market when he told Irish broadcaster RTÉ: “I hope Ireland hammer Scotland today for the way they behaved in the week. [They are] too mouthy, they can’t back it up. I was brought up with a mentality that you work hard and talk about it afterwards.” We all know how that turned out. Which makes another recent ROG pronouncement – admittedly with his Racing 92 coaching hat on – that the defending Top 14 champions can retain their title, despite currently languishing in 10th, six points away from the play-off places, even harder to swallow.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
81 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
3 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
3 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
3 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to comments