There's a reason Exeter finished 30 points ahead of Northampton - Andy Goode
Only five teams have ever won away in a Premiership semi-final in 29 attempts and it is hard to make the case for a sixth but I just have a feeling Gloucester could do something special.
I was part of the first team to win on the road in the semi-finals with Leicester back in 2008 when we won at Kingsholm and only four teams have managed to do it in the decade since, which tells you everything about the size of the task facing Gloucester and Northampton.
We were lucky to be in the play-offs that year and if they see it as a free shot, you just never know. If either of the away sides are going to pull off an upset, I reckon Gloucester have got more chance of doing it at Saracens.
That will sound strange to some when Northampton were level at half-time at Sandy Park last week and the Cherry and Whites have never won at Allianz Park but I just think there’s a glimmer of hope for Gloucester.
I don’t think there’ll be a hangover from the Champions Cup final a couple of weeks ago but you never know and then there is the front row, which could be an area of weakness.
Richard Barrington and Vincent Koch are good players but if they go down early like Titi Lamositele and Mako Vunipola did in the European final, Ralph Adams-Hale is a youngster with only a handful of Premiership appearances to his name and Christian Judge was playing in the Championship earlier this season.
Gloucester have Val Rapava Ruskin, who could make a massive impact, and Ruan Dreyer waiting in reserve and any of their four props will fancy their chances if they see those two coming on but it isn’t an area that you’d normally expect them to be dominant in really.
If they are to win, the back row of Ruan Ackermann, Jaco Kriel and Ben Morgan are going to have to get the better of their opposite numbers and the Premiership Player of the Season Danny Cipriani is going to have to capitalise on almost every chance they get.
He’s a master of creating little edge attacks and getting his team going from slow ball to quick ball. He’ll see things that others won’t but Gloucester will have to be clinical. They might get three openings and will have to take at least two of them.
They won’t be as loose as they have been at times this season and will have been working on their kicking game specifically for this game, so it might be a case of kicking their way up the field to 30 metres from the opposition try-line and then knowing when to press the gamble button.
Ollie Thorley will be a big loss for them, though, as he’s been their x-factor player this season and is someone who Saracens might have been a bit frightened of with the extra pace that he offers.
Both Gloucester and Northampton look like they’ve picked teams to combat the power games of their hosts, though, with six forwards and just two backs named by both among the replacements.
I’ve never been a fan of the six, two split on the bench and they could have issues if a key back goes down early but it’s clear that they think the extra forward will be useful with the amount of pressure they’re going to have to withstand and they know they’ll have to take the top two on physically if they have any chance of getting the better of them.
At Sandy Park the match-up of the young Joe Simmonds, who’s earned his place at the business end of the season just like he did a year ago, against the vast experience of Dan Biggar will be a fascinating one but I don’t think it’ll be the defining one.
Saints do have the ability to create something out of nothing and turn defence into attack in an instant with Cobus Reinach and Taqele Naiyaravoro, in particular, so you have to give them a shot but they’re going to need much more of an attacking focus throughout.
There’s a reason Chiefs finished streets ahead of them in the regular season and I just can’t see Saints winning unfortunately.
Exeter finished 30 points ahead of Northampton, which is the biggest gap between first and fourth in Premiership history, and the 10-point difference between second-placed Saracens and third-placed Gloucester is the biggest for 14 years as well.
A romantic always wants to see a brilliant semi-final that goes all the way to the wire and potentially a victory for the underdog but it’s right that the reward for finishing in the top two is a home semi-final and that does make thigs doubly difficult for the teams in third and fourth.
Chiefs and Sarries have been head and shoulders above everyone else again and the gap between them and the rest does seem to have grown this season.
History tells you there’s a 17 per cent chance of an away team winning their Premiership semi-final and, while I think Gloucester are in with a shout, it’s impossible to back against another Exeter v Saracens finale.
Comments on RugbyPass
To me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
26 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
26 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
48 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
26 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
26 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
26 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
26 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
1 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
26 Go to commentsArdie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to commentsSome thoughts to consider here, Sam. Thanks
2 Go to commentsI think he is right, SBW is respected in RSA. The guy who never stood up is a worm. Sseems lots of NZ SBW hate, you do the crime do the time.
17 Go to comments