Lions are rebuilding... again - Super Rugby 2019 Preview
The loss of almost 50 caps worth of Test experience may not sound that dramatic, but becomes more pronounced when you look at the Super Rugby experience that departed (339 appearances).
That is when you realise the true impact the losses suffered by the Lions may have.
When the likes of Ruan Ackermann (to Gloucester), Francois de Klerk (Sale), Armand van der Merwe (Sharks) and Julian Redelinghuys (retired) were absent for the 2018 season, there were already concerns. Now add the names of Ruan Dreyer (Gloucester), Rohan Janse van Rensburg (Sale Sharks), Jaco Kriel (Gloucester), Franco Mostert (Gloucester) and Jacques van Rooyen (Bath).
Coach Zacharia de Bruin downplayed the loss of this batch of Springboks.
However, even he will admit replacing that experience will take some time.
A glance at the Lions’ provisional squad will suggest they still have enough to be competitive.
And they do have it in them to reach the playoffs again.
However, in the crunch games – especially against New Zealand opposition – they will be vulnerable. Last year they were zero from five against Kiwi teams – losing twice to the Crusaders.
Nowhere was that vulnerability more conspicuous than the 35-38 loss to the Blues in Johannesburg in Round Four. Defeats to the Jaguares (35-49, in Buenos Aires), the Reds (22-27, Brisbane) and the Sharks (24-31, Durban) also illuminated their frailties.
The advantage they have is that the head coach, De Bruin, is now in his second season in charge. He has also spent some valuable time with the Springboks.
Other members of the backroom staff that will be wiser are defence coach Joey Mongalo and forwards coach Philip Lemmer – two aspects of the Lions’ game that required plenty of improvement.
How they cope with the loss of firebrand Franco Mostert will be key.
One-time Springbok Stephan Lewies is a great acquisition, but does not bring the same physical attributes and mobility that Mostert did.
2018 Predictions
South African Conference Placing: Third
Player of the Year: Malcolm Marx
Rookie of the Year: Wandisile Simelane
Super Rugby Placing: Somewhere between ninth and 12th
Squad Movements
In: Stephan Lewies (from the Sharks), Danie Mienie (Toulouse), Carlu Sadie (Stormers, loan), Frans van Wyk (Bulls), Jan-Henning Campher (Bulls).
Out: Ruan Dreyer (Gloucester), Rohan Janse van Rensburg (Sale Sharks), Marco Jansen van Vuuren (Sevens), Jaco Kriel (Gloucester), Franco Mostert (Gloucester), Jacques van Rooyen (Bath)
Squad (provisional): Andries Coetzee, Sylvian Mahuza, Gianni Lombard, Morné van den Berg, Ruan Combrinck, Courtnall Skosan, Madosha Tambwe, Aphiwe Dyantyi, Tyrone Green, Lionel Mapoe, Harold Vorster, Jan-Louis La Grange, Louritz van der Schyff, Manuel Rass, Wandisile Simelane, Elton Jantjies, Shaun Reynolds, Eddie Fouche, Ross Cronje, Dillon Smit, Nic Groom, Wayne van der Bank, Bradley Thain, Warren Whiteley, Albertus Smith, Robert Kruger, Cyle Brink, Hacjivah Dayimani, Len Massyn, Marnus Schoeman, James Venter, Jo-Hanco de Villiers, Peter-John Steenkamp, Vincent Tshituka, Andries Ferreira, Marvin Orie, Reinhard Nothnagel, Rhyno Herbst, Ruan Vermaak, Stephan Lewies, Jacobie Adriaanse, Dylan Smith, Johannes Jonker, Sithembiso Sithole, Nathan McBeth, Carlu Sadie, Chergin Fillies, Danie Mienie, Frans van Wyk, Robbie Coetzee, Malcolm Marx, Jan-Henning Campher, Pieter Jansen.
History
Best finish: Champions in 1993 (Some purists dismiss their Super 10 title as being in the amateur era. They were runners up in 2016, 2017 and 2018)
Worst finish: Fifteenth in 2012
By Jan de Koning @rugby365
Rugby World Cup City Guides – Oita:
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
28 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
5 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
28 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to commentsHi Dr Nick! I'm worried that I've started to enjoy watching England and have actually wanted them to win their last two games. What would you prescribe? On a more serious note, I've noticed that the standard of play in March is often better than early February. Do you think this is because of the weather or because the players have been together for longer?
28 Go to commentsMy question in all this brett is who is going to wear the consequences of these actions? Surely just getting the sack isn’t sufficient? A teenager working the till at woolies would probably get taken to court if they took $20 out of the till. You mean to tell me that someone can spend $2.6 million and get away with it? Where was it spent? What companies/people were the beneficiaries etc? How is it just being talked about as an ‘oopsie’ and we all just move on and not a matter of the court for gross negligence, fraud, take your pick…
22 Go to commentslove Manu too but England have relied on him coming back from injury for far too long and not sorted the position with someone else long term . It will be a blessing he has gone . Huge shame he was so injury prone . God speed Manu .
3 Go to commentsI agree with Ben Smith about Brett Cameron. The No. 6 position has to be a monster and a genuine lineout option, like Ollivon, Lawes (now Chessum), Du Toit, etc. The only player who fits that bill right now is Scott Barrett. A fit and fizzing Tuipolotu together with one of the young towers, Sam Darry or Josh Lord, would give Razor the freedom to play Barret at 6.
16 Go to comments