Israel Folau may be gone, but will it make a difference?
As news out of Sydney on Tuesday confirmed that Israel Folau has lost his code of conduct hearing with Rugby Australia, the already-slim chances of the 30-year-old ever playing rugby union at a first-class level continued to diminish.
There have been suggestions that Folau will appeal the decision and take the case to High Court, but regardless of what ensues from here on out, it appears there is next to no chance that he will ever ply his trade for the Waratahs or Wallabies again.
Having been absent from his Super Rugby side for the past five weeks, the Waratahs are beginning to feel the pinch of not being able to call on the services of their star fullback.
A win against the Rebels in their first match since the saga erupted three weeks ago looked to be an emphatic statement, as both sides seemed to be the most likely candidates to run away as winners of the increasingly-competitive Australian conference.
However, consecutive losses in disappointing fashion to the Sharks in Sydney and then the Bulls in Pretoria has left the New South Wales club fourth in their conference, and 12th on the overall standings.
Although they remain in touching distance of both the top of the Australian conference and a top-eight position, their reputable standing as playoff contenders seems to have deteriorated rapidly over the last few weeks.
Not only has the drama that Folau has created become a distraction for his teammates and coaches, but being ineligible for selection has hindered the Waratahs’ on-field performances as they can no longer rely on the pace, power, athleticism and aerial ability that he provided them with.
No other player in their squad ticks all those boxes quite as affirmatively as Folau does, and it’s beginning to show as he spends more time in court rooms than on the playing field.
It’s not just the Waratahs that should be concerned about his absence.
The Wallabies also don’t have anyone within their ranks that can soar into the sky to pluck out a high ball or pierce through opposition defences as freakishly as Folau can.
To say he’s been an integral member of the national set-up could be regarded an understatement considering he’s missed just 10 test matches since his debut against the British and Irish Lions in 2013.
That’s not to say that the 73-test veteran has made the Wallabies a successful team during his time in the squad, though.
In the tests he’s played in, the Australian national side has won just 33 times, giving them a win rate of only 45.21 percent.
It’s a win percentage that has resulted in a lack of significant silverware flowing through the trophy cabinet at Rugby Australia headquarters.
During Folau’s six-season stay in international rugby, the Wallabies claimed the Rugby Championship just once from six attempts, lost the British and Irish Lions series that Folau debuted in, still haven’t won the Bledisloe Cup back from the All Blacks after losing it in 2003, and fell short in the World Cup final four years ago.
Furthermore, England have left them without the Cook Cup since 2012, they’ve lost the Lansdowne Cup to Ireland two of the three times it’s been contested for since Folau’s been involved, and Scotland have won two of the last four Hopetoun Cup clashes, with both of those defeats coming embarrassingly for the Wallabies in 2017.
And while they have been successful in securing the Mandela Challenge Plate against South Africa over the past four years, won two of the last three Trophée des Bicentenaires against France since 2014, and retained the James Bevan Trophy four of the last five times against Wales, all these accolades pale in significance to the main four titles – World Cup, Lions series, Bledisloe Cup and Rugby Championship – they would have targeted and mostly failed to win.
Without the might of Folau on their side, Australia’s quest to lay claim to those main trophies are only going to become more difficult.
Their first assignments this year are the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup before the World Cup follows on just over a month later.
The likelihood of Wallabies skipper Michael Hooper lifting aloft any one of those trophies were skint enough before the Folau drama unfolded, but now you can almost certainly rule out the chances of that happening.
And that’s fair enough; Rugby Australia made the right decision from a moral, ethical and contractual standpoint to make Folau ineligible because of his actions, but there can be no denying that, from a rugby perspective at least, there will be big implications to follow from that.
The Waratahs are already beginning to feel the bite of being Folau-less, and it’s only going to be a matter of time before the Wallabies have to deal with that same burden.
The Short Ball:
Comments on RugbyPass
Oh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
1 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
1 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
56 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
61 Go to comments