How Joe Schmidt's status quo decision could cost the Wallabies

Joe Schmidt has called on the cavalry with big name signings and new overseas picks for his last Wallaby squad of 2024, but the propping stocks have received no such boost.

Schmidt has brought in reinforcements in other troubled positions like second row, flyhalf, and centre but has refrained from bringing-in props to put pressure on his established front row stocks.

This decision, to stick with the status quo at prop, means rapid improvements are required if the Wallabies wish to avoid disaster on their grand slam tour.

This is because strong scrummagers await the Wallabies and although their scrum has been a real strength at times, their strengths must continue to improve as well as fixing their problems.

The last four Tests of the year present the team with an opportunity to bring all their lessons together, to ensure complete performances against the ‘home nations’ England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

This goal requires a strong set-piece, and the scrum is a crucial piece to the puzzle.

Starters Taniela Tupou and Angus Bell have successfully anchored the Wallaby scrum for 40-minutes at a time.

The drop off once the pair leaves the field is considerable and Schmidt has foregone the opportunity to shake things up.

Alongside the starters, Schmidt has selected looseheads Isaac Aedo Kailea and James Slipper, as well as tightheads Allan Alaalatoa and Tom Robertson.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

3

Draws

0

Wins

2

Average Points scored

27

23

First try wins

40%

Home team wins

40%

Kailea has had good form in his rookie Wallaby season, he provides the team with a strong ball running option, a staunch defender, and a decent scrummager.

Kailea had some decent early performances, but he must announce himself on the international stage during this tour because he seems to be the second-strongest loosehead scrummager in the squad.

It’s a big responsibility, resting on youthful shoulders, because apart from the first Bledisloe match, Slipper has struggled at scrum time.

The young buck has the benefit of being under the tutelage of the ‘Scrum Doctor’ Mike Cron, as well as being able to lean on Slipper, the most capped Wallaby of all time, but all this must show for something in the coming weeks.

While it appears like a big load to put on such young shoulders, who else could Schmidt have turned to?

In the Australia XV team, Tom Lambert and Harry Hoopert are the only loosehead options, should a Wallaby go down.

Lambert is brutally short on game time, having been injured for much of the year, and Hoopert has only had a handful of games for the Western after returning from injury, with none featuring a dominant scrum performance.

The list of unavailable players doesn’t help Schmidt either: Alex Hodgman (family reasons), Harry Johnson-Holmes (Achilles), and Blake Schoupp (shoulder) are all unable to throw their hat in the ring for selection.

The reasons for not selecting Melbourne Rebel turned Queensland Red Matt Gibbon for Wallabies or Australia XV are a mystery, especially considering he had a strong Super campaign.

From an experience aspect, Hodgman is the only domestic player who could truly shift the dial.

Internationally, the clear and obvious choice would have been Exeter Chief and 69-cap Wallaby Scott Sio, who would add experience and strong competition to the young propping stocks.

The depth on the other side of the scrum is equally uncertain.

Despite some fitness issues and what appear to be confidence issues, Tupou has been the premier Wallaby tighthead by a country mile.

His raw power and explosiveness at scrum time has seen the Wallabies be able lean on the scrum in times of need.

The key for Schmidt and Cron on this tour will be to get the best out of Tupou, to fill him with confidence and to get him playing 50 minutes in every Test.

Increased minutes for Tupou is crucial as his deputy, Allan Alaalatoa, has struggled at scrum time since returning from a horror Achilles injury.

Getting 30 minutes of Alaalatoa’s typical high workrate in both defence and attack would serve the Wallabies well, especially if Tupou has taken the initial sting out of oppositions’ scrums in the second stanza.

After Alaalatoa, 31-cap Tom Robertson claims third spot, but he’s critically short on game time having only played a few games for the Force in October.

Again, looking at the Australia XV stocks and the options are thin: Rhys van Nek, Zane Nonggorr, and exciting youngster, Massimo De Lutiis.

Nonggorr is the only Wallaby capped member of the trio with 8-caps to his name, but the 23-year-old is not yet a force at scrum time, few tighthead-props are at this age.

Van Nek lacks unique size like Kailea or Tupou, and De Lutiis is building for Super Rugby.

Therefore, Alaalatoa is charged with large responsibility, for the Wallabies won’t be able to achieve success on their grand slam tour without a scrum that can compete for 80-minutes.

World-class scrummagers like Ireland’s Andrew Porter and Tadgh Furlong, England’s Joe Marler and Dan Cole, and Scotland’s Zander Fagerson and Pierre Schoeman await the Wallabies, and they will expose any weakness presented to them.

The Wallabies have an opportunity to weaponize their scrum with Bell and Tupou, but Cron must get another level out of Kailea and Alaalatoa.

Whereas new additions have seen players relegated in other positions, there is no such pressure being fabricated in the front-row stocks.

Schmidt has elected to stick with the players who carried him throughout the Rugby Championship and therefore, the pressure to push for better performances must come from himself, Cron, and from the props themselves.

The game of rugby is won and lost up front, and you can’t get any further forward than the front row.