Cream will continue to rise to top in contrasting semi-finals - Andy Goode
There is a real contrast between the two semi-finals in the Champions Cup this weekend but the cream will rise to the top in both as it has done thus far.
Leinster and Toulouse have each won this trophy four times, while Saracens and Munster have both won a couple of titles as well. We’re now in territory reserved only for the biggest hitters in Europe and these four are just about as big as they come.
They all have vast European pedigree and experience in common but the two games promise to be very different affairs. Sunday is the glamour tie between Leinster and Toulouse given the attacking form they’ve both shown this season but first there comes the power tie between Saracens and Munster, two teams for whom winning is a habit.
I think it’ll be an attritional semi-final at the Ricoh Arena and Munster are as hard-nosed as they come, it’s something they pride themselves on, but they’re up against it away from home and the absence of Keith Earls and Joey Carbery, in particular, is a massive blow.
They were already favourites but that tips the scales significantly in Saracens’ favour for me. Munster have only lost one of their last 12 games so they’re in form and will travel with an army of fans clad in red behind them but I just think it’ll be one step too far for them.
The Thomond Park outfit have lost their last six European Cup semi-finals and they’re back at the place where they won their last one and against the team they beat that day…it’d be a good story if history repeated itself 11 years on from their semi-final triumph over Saracens at the Ricoh in 2008 but I’m not sure it will.
There’ll be a fair bit of kicking going on in Coventry I think. Saracens and Munster have both evolved their style of play but they’re still pragmatic at heart and won’t want to take too many risks in a game of this magnitude.
The box-kicking battle between Conor Murray and Ben Spencer, with Richard Wigglesworth coming off the bench, will be key as both sides try to force mistakes. And then it’ll be about who has the most line speed and physicality in defence.
There are intriguing match-ups all over the pitch but I think the back row contest between Michael Rhodes and Billy Vunipola and Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander, in particular, will be among the most important and go a long way towards deciding the winner.
It’ll be a gain line war as it was when the pair met at the same stage in Dublin a couple of years ago. Saracens’ power won the game that day and I think it’ll happen again. It’ll be seriously hard-fought but I can see Saracens pulling away in the final stages.
Toulouse have arguably been the best team in Europe over the past six months if you look at their results in both the Top 14 and Champions Cup and they’ll travel with genuine belief after their heroics at the Paris La Defense Arena last month.
There is such rugby intellect in this Leinster side, though, and having Johnny Sexton back conducting them around the field could be the major deciding factor maker for me.
Contrast that with Ugo Mola’s selection of Antoine Dupont at number 10 for Toulouse and there is a monumental difference in experience and knowledge of how to boss a game from fly half.
Dupont is a phenomenal player and is absolutely electric but he’s a scrum half and is more dangerous operating from that position so I think Leinster might be quite happy to see him lining up in an unfamiliar role.
I was coached by Mola at Brive and I was left scratching my head at his selections there at times. On this occasion, I think Dupont went so well when he slotted in at number 10 after Zack Holmes’ red card in the quarter-final that he’s stumbled upon it and is sticking with it.
Romain Ntamack was France’s starting fly half in the Six Nations and I would definitely have started with him but he’s on the bench and Pita Ahki is making his first ever top tier European start in a semi-final as a result.
The likes of Thomas Ramos, Sofiane Guitoune, Yoann Huget and, of course, Cheslin Kolbe are so dangerous that there are sure to be moments of magic and we all saw what they achieved in the last round when they were down to 14 men.
I just think Leinster will have studied that game against Racing, as well as other Toulouse games this season obviously, and the difference is the patience of the Irish province. They won’t feel the need to score of first or second phase and will be happy to keep the ball and grind the opposition down if that’s what it takes.
The battle up front won’t be for the faint-hearted and Mola has picked an enormous pack with Joe Tekori lining up in the back row alongside Jerome Kaino and Rynhardt Elstadt. The two Richies in the second row are man mountains as well. He’s done that to combat the power of Leinster and also has a six-two split on the bench with three back rowers in reserve as well.
They’ll look to go toe to toe with the European champions and won’t lack confidence after losing just two of their last 23 games in all competitions but I just can’t see Leinster letting it slip in their own back yard…or own country!
Sexton is due a big performance because he hasn’t produced anywhere near his best form since he was named World Player of the Year and I think the stage is set for him to do so.
The cream has risen to the top with the final four having won over half of the previous 23 European Cups between them. I said Saracens would be the only team to challenge Leinster for their crown at the start of the campaign and I fully expect those two to be battling out at St James’ Park in three weeks’ time.
Comments on RugbyPass
Sorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
2 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
2 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
3 Go to commentsCorrect me if i’m wrong but the sadas have to win all games running into the finals yeh nah?
1 Go to commentsDon’t like Diamond but the maul is a joke, the sight of a choke tackle creating a maul then players in offside positions flopping on it killing the ball but then getting the put in? Banal.
3 Go to commentsHopefully Tabai Matson returns to Crusaders as head coach next season.
1 Go to commentsstorm in a teacup really. Penalty only so play on as the try was scored. Now the real question is: why was Maitland allowed to pass the ball off the floor? That is illegal but refs never pick it up.
1 Go to commentsWhen Beauden Barrett signed his contract before the 2023 RWC to play in Japan in 2024, it was NOT part of a sabbatical agreed to with NZRU prior to his signing, as was Ardie Savea and Sam Cane. Barrett changed his mind after the fact and negotiated his return to NZ Rugby and he was given permission to be eligible for All Black selection straight away once he signed a new contract to return to the Blues in 2025. Therefore, why would anyone argue against Whitelock returning to the All Blacks straight away after his season is France is finished if he signs a new contract with NZRU which includes a Super Rugby contract in 2025? If Barrett can, Whitelock should be allowed too.
10 Go to commentsThe All Blacks will select 5 locks this season. Scott Robertson will most likely want to select 2 veteran locks who can start right away in 2024 and 3 young promising locks who he would like to be pushing hard for selection in the starting XV in two years time- 2026. Scott Barrett is a world class lock. Who would you rather start beside him this season against England, South Africa, Ireland, and France- Sam Whitelock or Patrick Tuipulotu? I would choose Whitelock over Tuipulotu all day, every day.
10 Go to comments