Australian Conference Pre-Season Odds: Title Contenders and Long-Term Losers

This year’s Super Rugby is confusing at the best of times. There are two Groups, one from Australasia and another from Africa, an extremely convoluted schedule, a new team that’s pretty much the Argentinian national team, a Japanese side that holds its home games in Singapore, and an inexplicable lack of live animal mascots.

A full explainer is here, but to get your bearings on the competition, the main thing to focus on is the conferences. There are four of them – Australia, New Zealand, Africa 1, and Africa 2 – and the winner of each will be rewarded with home field advantage in the quarter-finals. For our pre-season odds, we decided to rank the teams in those conferences by how good they’re going to be, and where they’re likely to end up at the end of the season.

Australian Division

Brumbies
TAB odds $8 to win competition, equal 3rd favourite

The Brumbies win few points for style but they win plenty of games by doing the little things better than their opponents. While they have lost a few 2015 players, those loses are nothing like as heavy as many other teams are trying to deal with, which means the Brumbies start in better shape than most. They’re hard to beat at home – a trait that carried the early Canberra teams deep into the competition each year – and occasionally capable of lighting teams up on the road. Christian Leali’ifano’s form with the boot may be important; after a big 2014 he fell away markedly last year and those missed kicks hurt at times. The Brumbies biggest problem might be getting that top slot in the Australian conference; gaining it will help their overall chances no end.

After 17 weeks the Brumbies will be: Preparing for a playoff game, probably away from home.

Reds
TAB odds $41 to win competition, 13th favourite

When the Reds imploded a few years back, they did it in style and have never recovered since. Last year was a shambles in Brisbane and environs, with a terrible on-field record made worse by a disciplinary melt-down and then the Karmichael Hunt circus topping things off. It shows how desperate the Reds are that Hunt is still there; most teams would have terminated his contract on the spot. All the Reds forwards got old together, and now a large bunch have left together, so there is a green look about the pack. There are plenty of non-tacklers in the backline as well, so the number of problems facing Richard Graham, who managed to do what many of his players couldn’t and go round for another year, has not diminished. The Reds don’t even have the Suncorp factor any more – they’re as bad there as anywhere else these days. Not a team to interest punters, the Reds will be an outfit its opponents eye up for four or five points each week.

After 17 weeks the Reds will be: Wondering if 2011 was only a dream. It won’t be a new feeling.

Force
TAB odds $101 to win competition, equal 15th favourite

The Force’s 100-1 starting price may be long odds, but it’s a fair assessment of a team that has not reached the playoffs at any time in its ten-year Super rugby history. The Force has enjoyed a couple of decent seasons, including a longer than expected playoff challenge a couple of years back, but has done it without a monster pack or many backs with game-breaking qualities. Goal-kicking is another perennial problem and it is hoped the acquisition of former Stormer Peter Grant may fix it, although his last foray into Super rugby was marked by as many misses as hits. The Force will, as ever, be a trap for the unwary, especially at Perth, and as ever they will end their season when the round-robin is done in week 17.

After 17 weeks the Force will be: At home, watching on the telly. Again.

Rebels
TAB odds $61 to win competition, 14th favourite

The Rebels are slowly getting better, but they still haven’t managed to threaten the playoffs and even an eight-team post-season won’t help them. They will be third-best in Australia at best, but the New Zealand sides are all better and will squeeze them out of the reckoning. The Rebels have never been a high-scoring team and the defence is occasionally good – mostly at home – so they’re one of those pesky sides that becomes more dangerous the longer it hangs around in a tight game. Goal-kicking can be an issue, although Mike Harris has days when he can’t miss, but overall the Rebels will be happy finish clear of fifth in the Aussie conference. That said, they are by no means the worst team in the competition and won’t get thumped too often.

After 17 weeks the Rebels will be: Done and dusted.

Waratahs
TAB odds $8 to win competition, equal 3rd favourite

Although they have lost a great deal of talent and experience to post-World Cup pension fund competitions, the Waratahs are still a decent side and better than most. Even though the pack was aging together, they haven’t lost as many as might have been the case but the big gaps are on the wings, where a great deal of strike power has gone. Perhaps the guy who will be missed most is Adam Ashley-Cooper, who always seemed to be at his best on the big occasions. The Waratahs have a few issues, not least of which will be an expectant press that possibly may lose its perspective from time to time, and a few teams that watched the Highlanders win the semi last year will have picked up an idea or two. No matter, the Waratahs will still qualify for the last stages easily enough but I would have them winning the whole thing in the file marked ‘Surprise’.

After 17 weeks the Waratahs will be: The best Aussie team, and difficult to beat at home. They’ll be a title threat.