All Blacks quarter-final exit, RTS to sign NRL deal: 10 bold predictions for 2023
As the clock struck 12 on New Years Day, celebrations erupted as everyone began to celebrate a new beginning alongside family and friends.
But for those supporters who consider themselves rugby tragics, the beginning of 2023 simply meant more.
After years of patiently waiting, the most competitive Rugby World Cup ever is finally upon us.
Dreams will either be realised or shattered in France later this year as the best teams in the world look to prove themselves in the pursuit of rugby immortality.
But there can only be one champion.
And predicting which nation will hoist the Webb Ellis Cup in November is proving to be a harder challenge than driving a car without an engine.
But, that hasn’t stopped me from trying.
As rugby fans begin to look ahead to the New Year, full of optimism and hope, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2023 season – and it’s not all just about the World Cup.
The New Year is an opportunity for us all to dream big; live in hope and wonder as we look ahead to a new season of Super Rugby, the Sevens World Series, and plenty more.
There has never been a better time to be a rugby fan, and 2023 will show us why.
- The All Blacks will equal their worst-ever finish at a Rugby World Cup
Déjà vu awaits supporters who call a small rugby-mad nation at the bottom of the world home.
For millions of New Zealanders, rugby union is more than just a hobby – rather, the sport has become almost an obligation for many as well as an obsession.
New Zealanders love the 15-player game, and ride the highs and lows of test rugby alongside the All Blacks almost religiously.
But both the passion of the supporters and the legacy of the coveted black jersey creates unprecedented pressure for those lucky enough to call themselves All Blacks.
The All Blacks are expected to win every time they take the field – there are no exceptions, especially at World Cups.
That’s why the men in black came under such fierce scrutiny during a disappointing start to last season, which saw them lose test matches to Ireland, South Africa and Argentina.
And if I’m looking into my crystal ball and seeing what lies ahead for the legendary rugby team, it’s not good.
The All Blacks infamously bowed out at the quarter-final stage of the 2007 Rugby World Cup, where they lost to traditional rivals France in Cardiff in controversial fashion.
Unfortunately for the three-time World Cup champions, history does repeat.
New Zealand will probably have to face either South Africa or Ireland in the quarter-finals of this year’s tournament, and both of those matchups are incredibly tough.
Both teams beat the All Blacks in 2022, and would relish the opportunity to knock them out of the World Cup if given the chance.
The All Blacks may have finished their season on a seven-test unbeaten run last year, but most of those performances were far from convincing.
This is a team who has improved, but time is not on their side.
They have plenty of ground to make up before this year’s World Cup, and they’ll simply run out of time before facing menacing opposition in the quarters.
- Scott Robertson will be named the next Wallabies coach
Super coach Scott Robertson has been a fan favourite in New Zealand for what feels like forever now.
Many fans around Aotearoa would love to see the Crusaders boss replace All Blacks coach Ian Foster after this year’s World Cup, if not before it.
But New Zealand’s loss may be Australia’s gain, as the Wallabies look to continue their rebuild ahead of the British and Irish Lions tour in 2025.
Wallabies coach Dave Rennie is reportedly close to signing with Japanese Rugby League One club Kobe Steelers after this year’s World Cup.
While speculation is rife about former England coach Eddie Jones potentially returning to Australia, their best option is clearly Robertson.
As reported by The Roar, Japan-based duo Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown are free agents after this year’s World Cup, and could replace Foster at the All Blacks.
As for Robertson, he may miss out once again.
If the Wallabies are to usher in a golden generation which promises so much, then the Crusaders coach could hold the key to unlocking their potential.
- France will fall short of World Cup glory
France are widely considered to be the favourites going into this year’s World Cup, as they look to win their first title on home soil.
But they won’t.
Les Bleus may not have the men’s number one ranking to their name, but they’re probably the best team in the world at the moment.
They won all of their test matches in 2022, and haven’t lost a match since playing Australia in July the year before.
This team can play.
But it’s well known in rugby circles that at least historically, France have been their biggest enemy at World Cups.
Inconsistent performances have cost Les Bleus, who have made three World Cup finals but have won none.
France have been drawn in Pool A with traditional powerhouse New Zealand, and will probably have to face either Ireland or South Africa in the quarter-finals.
Both of those tests could go either way.
Should they win, Les Bleus could then potentially face either England or Australia in the semi-finals, and I truly think the pressure will get to them.
- Springboks defend their World Cup crown
Reigning World Cup champions South Africa will defend their World Cup crown later this year.
The Springboks equalled the All Blacks’ record of three World Cup titles four years ago, but they may go one better in France later this year.
While South Africa were somewhat inconsistent in test matches last year – having lost to the Wallabies in Adelaide – this is a team who knows how to win big tournaments.
Their final test match of the year against England should give them plenty of confidence going into the new campaign.
- RTS to sign deal with an NRL club
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is a generational talent.
The side-stepping utility back became the first New Zealand-born player to win the coveted Dally M medal during his NRL days, and also captained the Kiwis during his time in the sport.
But his decision to jump codes was incredibly intriguing, as fans from both codes watched eagerly in anticipation; debating how high his ceiling was as he chased his All Blacks dream.
‘RTS’ made his All Blacks debut last year, and showed plenty of potential in the limit opportunities he had to shine in the black jersey.
But the All Blacks can only pick 33-players in their World Cup, the Tuivasa-Sheck experiment might just run out of time.
As reported by The Mole, Wayne Bennett could potentially look to acquire the services of the exciting talent at the NRL’s newest club The Dolphins.
According to The Mole, ‘RTS’ is looking to ‘give union another 12 months.’ If that’s true, and he fails to make the World Cup squad, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t put pen to paper with an NRL side by the end of the year.
- Super Rugby Aupiki to break records in 2023
Last year’s women’s Rugby World Cup in New Zealand was simply a ground-breaking event for rugby union.
Sold out crowds watched the Ferns beat France in a thrilling semi-final at Eden Park, before a record crowd packed the stands a week later for a titanic final against World No. 1 England.
New Zealand got behind the Black Ferns like never before throughout their World Cup run, and this support will carry through to Super Rugby Aupiki later this year.
The tournament will continue to re-write what was once believed to be possible for women’s rugby in New Zealand – I can’t wait.
Aupiki gets underway in late February with the Hurricanes Poua taking on the Chiefs Manawa at Levin Domain.
- The Wallabies will charge in the RWC semi-finals – at a minimum
The Wallabies had a disastrous season last year, but their past doesn’t have to define their future.
More than 50 players donned Wallaby gold throughout an injury-ravaged campaign last year, which saw the Wallabies win just five test matches from 14.
They were able to avoid their worst season since 1958 with an incredible comeback win over Wales in Cardiff, but their overall win record was still well below where it should’ve been.
That being said, this is the same team who beat England and South Africa early in the year. They also should’ve beaten New Zealand, France and Ireland – in total, the top five teams in the world.
And that was without Quade Cooper and Samu Kerevi.
If the Wallabies can avoid another injury crisis this season, then they’ll pose a genuine threat, and should top their pool over Wales and Fiji.
As for their side of the draw, they’ll probably have to face either Argentina or Japan in the quarter-finals – presuming England come out on top.
They should win that.
And once they make it through to the semi-finals, it really is anyone’s game.
- England will win the Six Nations
The Eddie Jones era is officially done and dusted in England. Steve Borthwick was handed the reins nine months out from the World Cup – and he has the potential to steer them towards greatness.
England only five matches last year, and finished third in the Six Nations behind France and Ireland.
But this is a new team, and their potential is simply world class. They could win the World Cup, but that’s probably too bold a call at the moment even for this article.
Unlike last season, England will host France at Twickenham in mid-March – and a pumping home crowd could get them over the line in that test.
Bonus points will be key in this tournament though, but England have what it takes.
- Dalton Papali’i to start for the All Blacks at the RWC
Sam Cane has been a great All Blacks captain for quite some time now, but just doesn’t offer the same punch as what he used to.
Cane is still a fantastic player, but his consistency needs to be questioned heading into a World Cup. In many matches last year, he went missing when his team needed a leader.
Once his season was cut short due to injury, rising star Dalton Papli’i was given the opportunity to shine in the black jersey – and he did that famous No. 7 justice.
In fact, many fans and pundits were calling for more Dalton as the focus began to shift towards the World Cup.
Papali’i is simply more versatile and effective around the field. Even around the breakdown, he’s a menace – as he wreaks havoc seemingly at will.
Sam Cane will still make the World Cup squad, obviously, but may be better utilised during pool play.
- Kurtley Beale to shine for Tahs
Kurtley Beale is back in Australia, as he chased a fourth World Cup appearance after signing with the Waratahs.
Beale is an incredibly talented player, and has the potential to become a matchday regular for the Wallabies throughout the year ahead.
After returning to Australia, Beale was reportedly one of the standouts in a unique opposed training session between the Waratahs and NRL side St George.
Beale was also included in Dave Rennie’s first squad for the year, as the Wallabies met for a training camp on the Gold Coast.
The 34-year-old will undoubtedly play a key role in the Waratahs continued resurgence this season, as he looks to book his place on the plane to France.
Comments on RugbyPass
Christie is not Sottish, like the majority of the Scotland team.
2 Go to commentsHold the phone, decline over-rated. Is it a one game, dead cat bounce or the real thing? Has the Penney dropped? Stay tuned.
44 Go to commentsTotally deserved win for the Crusaders Far smarter than the Chiefs who seem to be avoiding the basics when it matters Hotham showed them what was missing and Hannah seems a real find - a tad light but that can be fixed over time
8 Go to commentsGreat insight into the performance culture with Sarries and I predict Christie will be a fixture in the Scotland team now for some time to come. However, he is slightly missing his own point around Scotland “being soft” when he cites physicality examples in defence of that slight. The issue is much closer to the example he referenced around feeling off before a game but being told “it doesn’t matter, you can still play well” by Farrell. Until Scotland can get their psyche in that square, they will carry on folding under extreme pressure…
2 Go to comments> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
5 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
44 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
8 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
8 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
8 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
44 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
4 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
44 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
44 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to comments