What is it about those Scots? You know, the arrogant lot who talk themselves up then fall flat every year? The gaudy blowhards from up north with their penchant for inflated rhetoric over substance. The tartan trumpeters. The crowing Caledonians. All mouth and no mettle. All kilt and no killer instinct.
This damning perception has calcified into rugby fact. A hilarious irony for perhaps the most pessimistic nation on earth – certainly when it comes to its sports teams. Doom-mongering is a national pastime in Scotland. The demeanour of the average Scottish fan veers between the blind hope of Jim Carey’s Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber (‘so you’re saying there’s a chance?!’) and Eeyore, the downtrodden donkey from Winnie the Pooh. Yet when their players say things all rugby players say – about their optimism, their skillsets, their potential – before a tournament, it’s cast up as misguided Scottish hubris.
Rugby folk from across the Irish Sea have often been at the forefront of this narrative. Eddie O’Sullivan machine-gunned Scotland after some slightly exaggerated post-match remarks from Stuart Hogg in the Aviva back in 2020. “They always talk themselves up, they always talk a great game,” O’Sullivan bridled. “They have some deluded notion they are better than they are.” Though he was at most bombastic in his delivery, Eddie is not alone. Andy Dunne, the former Leinster fly-half, spoke of putting Scotland back in their box. Matt Williams, the least successful coach in Scottish history, told them to ‘shut up’ until they’d ‘lived out their talk’. The Virgin Media studio is stocked with shrewd television analysts, steered by the brilliant Joe Molloy, but frequently makes unpleasant viewing for a Scot on matchday.
Whether founded on truth or manufactured outrage, spice is a great thing for rugby. The game needs more of it; more hype building around the contests and more reasons for people to tune in. This fixture has shovelfuls of that.
You can go back nearly 20 years to when Ronan O’Gara alleged he was choked by a Scottish opponent at Murrayfield. You can cite the meandering Edinburgh detour the Ireland team bus took the last time they lost to their Celtic foes in 2017. There’s the captivating angst between Munster and Glasgow, personified for years by the glare of Peter O’Mahony and the cackles of Ryan Wilson. The targeting of Conor Murray’s standing leg. O’Mahony’s shot on Hogg which put him out of the Six Nations. Scottish Rugby backing the French 2023 World Cup bid rather than Ireland’s. Scots winning the marginal calls for 2021 Lions selection ahead of great Irishmen such as Garry Ringrose and Johnny Sexton. The testy nature of the matches themselves, the bout of Greco-Roman wrestling in the Stade de France ignited by Scottish anguish as Ireland tossed them out of the World Cup with brutal efficiency. In the leadup to that humiliating rout, Blair Kinghorn offered up the only legitimately hubristic comment when he said “they have been on a good run of form recently, but we’ll end that on Saturday.” Kinghorn was forced off injured in the opening minutes and Scotland were 26-0 down by the interval.
he Irish remain the only one of the six nations Gregor Townsend has yet to defeat. This is his eighth campaign as head coach.
There’s spice, all right. But it might strain the bounds of ‘rivalry’ when one team is so consistently and utterly dominant.
Scotland have not beaten Ireland in eight years and 11 matches. Ten defeats on the spin, a maddening familiarity about the bulk of them. Should Simon Easterby pilot Sunday’s visitors to number 11, Ireland will equal the record for the longest winning streak in this 148-year-old fixture. Neither team has won 11 in a row since Scotland’s run in 1892. A try was worth three points and a drop goal four in those days. That’s the kind of historic supremacy we’re talking about here.
The average score across those 10 Irish victories is 25-12. Scotland have scored a single try or fewer in eight of them. Ireland score more than three per match to Scotland’s 1.1. The Scots managed 13 points in Dublin last year, 14 in the World Cup hosing, and a mere seven and five respectively in the previous two Six Nations. You can’t expect to sink Ireland with those tallies. And so, the Irish remain the only one of the six nations Gregor Townsend has yet to defeat. This is his eighth campaign as head coach.
It is not as if the tables turned with Townsend’s arrival, mind. Scotland have mustered a paltry three championship wins over Ireland this millennium. Ireland have seven Champions Cups and, in the URC’s various iterations, 14 league titles. Scotland have two, a decade apart, and the furthest any of their pro-teams have gone in Europe is the semi-final stage when – surprise, surprise – they lost to an Irish province.
Scotland would kill for Ireland’s pathways and schools and the success they have cultivated at the very highest level. That’s why they pursued David Nucifora, the IRFU’s long-time string-puller, so vigorously, luring him away from his home country and the Wallabies to head up the high-performance department.
How many Scots would make Easterby’s XV? In a Lions year, with Andy Farrell in the hotseat, it’s pertinent to ask.
You’d have Finn Russell before Sam Prendergast or Jack Crowley. You’d find a place for a fit Sione Tuipulotu, even in an Irish midfield laden with pedigree and ammunition. Would Huw Jones usurp Garry Ringrose? Maybe not, but it’s close. Jones is a Rolls Royce. For all Duhan van der Merwe’s unique attacking weaponry, James Lowe has the edge there. What about Darcy Graham and Mack Hansen on the other flank? That’s a wickedly tough call. Kinghorn has better recent form and two more recent trophies than Hugo Keenan, but Keenan has been one of the best full-backs in the world for years.
Rory Darge opposite Josh van der Flier is a meaty clash too. Ireland’s former World Player of the Year has such credit in the bank but Darge is a warrior.
Leaving aside the injured Tadgh Furlong, do you take Pierre Schoeman over Andrew Porter, or Zander Fagerson ahead of Finlay Bealham? Fagerson – more so even than Russell or Tuipulotu – is Scotland’s most important player. The big man is a marvel of durability. He ran for 69m against the Italians and routinely puts in 80-minute monster shifts. Schoeman is a carrying machine. But Porter? Porter is a beast. More explosive on the hoof and quicker with it. His scrum showdown with Fagerson will be titanic.
Rory Darge opposite Josh van der Flier is a meaty clash too. Ireland’s former World Player of the Year has such credit in the bank but Darge is a warrior. He’s got heavier, stronger, and punches well above his weight. It’s only recently he’s won recognition outside of Scotland. Farrell has a glut of out-and-out sevens to assess but Darge is right up there.
“He’s an athlete, that guy,” said Sam Warburton on the BBC’s Rugby Special. “He got injured and it probably could be a bit of a blessing because it’s just given him an extra few kilograms of body weight.
“It doesn’t sound much but in contact that helps you dominate massively at an international level. Darge has bulked up that little bit and he looks like a Lions player.”
You can make a compelling case for a slew of Scots and still not unseat two thirds of the Ireland team. And that’s before you gaze at the riches and the caps and the medals festooning the Irish bench. A bevy of replacements who ripped the game from England’s grasp a week ago, spearheaded by the extraordinary Dan Sheehan and Jack Conan.
If Scotland are still in the fight when the benches are emptied, that’s a plus. Too often, these games are dead in the water come 60 minutes. Sometimes it’s more like 40. The World Cup matches in 2023 and 2019 were finished by half-time; Scotland once more wheezing in an Irish death grip.
Townsend’s vaunted attack has not fired enough telling shots. The Scottish pack has been trampled and bludgeoned by the directness of the Irish heavyweights. Every error Scotland make seems punished. Every dip or lapse seized upon and devoured. Where Scotland create their own adversity, Ireland have revelled in it.
What hope things will be different this year? There’s the nugget of Dublin last spring, when Scotland barred up stirringly in a way they haven’t against the Irish for an age.
Two years ago, Ireland lost Sheehan and Ronan Kelleher in the first half at Murrayfield. Tuipulotu had sent Jones scorching under the sticks with a no-look fizzer. Ireland wound up with Cian Healy hooking and Van der Flier throwing at lineouts and still Scotland could not wrest control from them. They never scored after Jones’ 16th-minute touchdown and lost the game by 15 points. Irish players and coaches still talk about that day with real gusto; a seminal match for growth and adaptability and a valuable lesson in handling all the chaos an international match might throw at you. Scotland, as usual, can only look back and wonder.
What hope things will be different this year? There’s the nugget of Dublin last spring, when Scotland barred up stirringly in a way they haven’t against the Irish for an age. They never looked like winning but for long spells, hemmed in their own half, they took the body blows which rained down upon them and stood stoically. There are more champions in the Scottish side since then. Glasgow did a job at Thomond Park on a savage run to the URC crown. That’s precious emotional currency, even if Munster are not Ireland. Kinghorn is flourishing in the land of Galacticos and won the Top 14 and Champions Cup double, beating Leinster in the final of the latter. These are different player groups navigating different landscapes. You have to hope there’s a carry-over to the collective.
For there are still too many fluctuations in Scottish performance. We thought they were beyond this caper, but last year’s tournament showcased their continued flakiness. The second-half collapse against Wales which almost cost them. The wasteful nature of the France match at Murrayfield which did. The implosion in Rome. The softness of Sheehan’s first try in Dublin. The decidedly wobbly middle chunk of last Saturday’s opener against Italy did nothing to dispel those fears. Show any frailty, offer any quarter on Sunday, and they’ll be under their own sticks.
There’s so little here for Scotland to hang their hat on, for Townsend to cobble together as evidence for his men to cling to and rally behind and build upon. That they can stem the green torrent. That they can finally escape this Groundhog Day, bookended by false perceptions and the lilting soundtrack of Fields of Athenry.
Scotland have never been Six Nations contenders, never entered ‘Super Saturday’ with a realistic tilt at the prize. Slay their white whale, and they blow the campaign wide open.
Scotland exist in a media no man’s land as far as the preamble goes this week. Downplay the match and they’re not up for it. Speak honestly about their goals and prospects and they’re cocky. Neither approach has borne fruit.
Time is running out for this generation to deliver on its talent. Scotland have never been Six Nations contenders, never entered ‘Super Saturday’ with a realistic tilt at the prize. Slay their white whale, and they blow the campaign wide open. Now that really would be something to shout about.
I watched the Scotland-South Africa match and all Scotland's line breaks were assisted by Tuipolotu. Scotland got a lot of penalty turnovers at the breakdown, Darge stood out. I think they surprized the Springboks in this regard. The breakdown will be interesting again but Ireland are fresh from a breakdown schooling by England there and passed the test (just about).
My gut is Tuipolotu is a major loss that might help Ireland across the line.
Ireland should dispatch Scotland. Scotland should put up a really good fight. But it really should be Ireland’s all day long.
Scotland. By 1 point. Oh please dear Mary…
"There’s the nugget of Dublin last spring, when Scotland barred up stirringly in a way they haven’t against the Irish for an age. They never looked like winning but for long spells, hemmed in their own half, they took the body blows which rained down upon them and stood stoically." It's simply not true to say that Ireland have dominated physically in the 6N of late. Since 2020 - after that chastening opening 2019 RWC match - Scotland's physicality went up significantly. 2020 and 2021 at the very least should have gone the other way, but ultimately Ireland's Ice Man performances did the trick.
Scotland are perfectly entitled to believe and state their ambitions.
Above any year Ireland should listen this year. They have been planning this match from a long way out and as well as having more winners they must have been massively heartened that England with planning and attitude were able to dominate and beat Ireland last year.
Scotland have a long considered plan, that they think will undo Ireland and they are clearly confident. That should cause Ireland unease. If Scotland get into a position to impose their game plan they will win.
Easterby was talking about matching their physicality. Scotland might be ok with a physical draw though, Ireland might need to ensure a massively intense physical game to put that game plan under pressure and impose their own.
The huge boon from beating England and a Lions year might help Ireland. But this is a 50:50.
We gave NZ a 13 point lead and couldn't recover in 2023. It might be the same on Sunday.
If Scotland have any sense at all, they’ll downplay their chances all day long and twice on Sunday. Disappointing not to see tuipulotu facing aki, that would have been box office.