As an Australian rugby fan, I make a pretty decent golfer. Which is to say that I too am capable of exceptional performance – on my day.
Which is also to say that just like Australian rugby, my golf performances are often judged by a moment or two of brilliance that mostly cloud over the numerous deficiencies in my game.
In a rugby sense, season reviews are typically handed down on completion of a competition, but there are a number of reasons why assessments of the Australian Super Rugby Pacific teams can be handed down now.
First and foremost, their current table positions aren’t likely to change, even with one round to play.
The Brumbies can’t finish outside the top three, the Reds will finish either fourth, fifth or sixth, the Waratahs will most likely miss the finals unless they can come from the clouds to claim sixth, and the Western Force with a final-round bye are already turning their attention to the arrival of the British and Irish Lions.
Secondly, with the possible exception of an Australian team finishing fifth or sixth and making a run through to the play-offs to win the whole thing, these conclusions probably won’t change much regardless of how their respective finals campaigns finish.
And finally, the minute the final whistle is blown on the Super Rugby Pacific final on Saturday 21 June, Australian rugby switches straight into Lions Tour mode, with the Lions’ first game on Australian soil – against the Force – the following Saturday, 28 June.
With this in mind, and because the great and ancient game of golf has always provided me with the best platform for judgements and self-assessment, there may be no better way to complete the season review – and no better time than after the penultimate round of the home and away season.
ACT Brumbies – putting for birdie
It’s been well established and accepted over the past few weeks that the Brumbies have confirmed their return to the mantle of the best side in Australia, if indeed they ever relinquished it.
The Brumbies are the clubhouse leaders in Australia heading into the final round this weekend because of the impact of their in-season adjustments.
Up to their Round 8 bye, the ACT side were scoring 32.6 points and 4.9 tries per game, as they compiled four wins and three losses to start the 2025 season. But during that same period, they were conceding 31.7 points and 4.3 tries per game. They had a positive points differential, but not by much. For a team who conceded less than 30 points and fewer than three tries per game in 2024, this was noticeable slippage.
Tweaks to their defence, goal-kicking improvements, and more bang from their set piece buck has the Brumbies in a really good place to achieve play-off success.
A switch to a defensive system I’ve previously described as “not-quite-Blitz, sorta-kinda-rush defence” fully in 2025 is the main reason. The Brumbies tried to use this system last season before slowing and tightening their alignments (with great success), but this year they’ve stuck with it, while making adjustments along the way.
And adjust they did. Since that Round 8 bye, they’ve scored at a similar average to the first half of the year themselves, but conceded just 17.7 points and only 2.7 tries per game. To cut your opposition’s scoring in half while maintaining your own scoring rate is manna from heaven for your coach’s health. It’s no surprise at all the Brumbies have won five games and lost just once since their first bye.
They have also improved their goal-kicking, from 65% and one of the worst success rates in the competition for the first half of the year, to 74% since their break – in the top half of kicking accuracy measures. Further, they’re getting more out of their exceptional lineout, scoring six of their eight lineout drive tries this year over the last five rounds.
Tweaks to their defence, goal-kicking improvements, and more bang from their set piece buck has the Brumbies in a really good place to achieve play-off success.
A win over the Crusaders this weekend, to secure a top-two finish, will greatly shorten the length of this birdie putt the Brumbies are currently lining up.
Queensland Reds & NSW Waratahs – desperate to save par
After the Reds were unable to stay with another top-ranked opponent late into a game, overcome by the Hurricanes in a 31-27 loss in Brisbane on Saturday, I posed a simple enough question on the socials: ‘So how are we measuring the 2025 Queensland Reds, rugby fam?’.
From more than 110 responses – a decent enough sample size – 50% settled on the middle option of ‘A bit disappointing’. Another 36% concluded Queensland were ‘About as expected’, while just under 14% were ‘quite underwhelmed’.
From the levels of expectation foisted upon them at the start of the season, roughly two-thirds of a survey response rating them as coming up short of those expectations speaks to the breadth of the frustration around their 2025 season.
And yes, as often repeated here, a lengthy injury toll has impacted their campaign. There’s no denying that, nor is there any real argument. But the questions around their approach remain, and how that approach has them poised ahead of a fourth straight Super Rugby Pacific finals appearance.
Their pivot on Saturday to now wanting to kick penalty goals for the first time this year is an interesting case in point. Is it a concession that they should have pointed to the posts more often this season, or is it recognition that their previous mentality wasn’t going to suit finals football?
They won’t miss the finals, but their final-round match in Brisbane against the Fijian Drua on Saturday leaves them with one last opportunity to tune up for the finals.
They can still save par in 2025, but by their own admission, they’re still a good way off their best right now – regardless of who’s currently out injured.
Five wins at home belied a number of heavy losses for NSW over the first nine rounds, with moments of brilliance in wins followed by moments that had new coach Dan McKellar deliver scathing home truths after losses.
Remarkably, New South Wales can still finish sixth this season, and scrape into the final play-off berth under the new six-team finals format in action for 2025.
And it’s not even that hard an ask: they only have to beat the Blues at Eden Park in Auckland for the first time since 2009 and only the second time ever, and then hope that Moana Pasifika don’t bounce back from their thumping from the Chiefs with a win over the Hurricanes in Wellington straight after. Dead easy.
Coming into the season, I had the Waratahs finishing somewhere around seventh or maybe sixth. I thought their squad was good enough to be capable of reaching the finals if everything fell into place, but the questions were always going to be whether everything would and if they could work themselves out of tough spots if things went awry.
Five wins at home belied a number of heavy losses over the first nine rounds, with moments of brilliance in wins followed by moments that had new coach Dan McKellar deliver scathing home truths after losses.
Their season comes down to one task expected to be beyond them, and in no better illustration of their campaign, the Waratahs are playing for a finals berth on the back of a 90th-minute miracle try in extra time against the Force.
They could save par for the season, I suppose, but maybe the expectations around NSW were misguided to start with.
Western Force – golf is a stupid game
Every golfer has played a round like this. You start strongly, play some early holes really well and start believing this might be the day. The next thing you know, you’re spraying your tee shot on the 10th into shrubbery and having to invent methods of recovery that aren’t replicable and that no-one would recommend.
Putts start lipping out on the next couple of greens, and walking away early starts looking dignified.
That was the Force this season. After winning their first two games then losing the next three, they re-entered the top six in Round 6, commencing a six-week run with all four Australian sides in the play-off spots – a feat that guaranteed nothing for the finals, but the fact it was happening was still a significant step forward.
By Round 8, the Force were back to fourth and had been in the top six for six of those first eight rounds. Hopes were rising among the Sea of Blue, and it wasn’t without reason; they were playing some really nice rugby.
The Force played the front nine well, but had a back nine to forget
But after their Round 9 bye, they played out an extra-time draw with the Hurricanes in Round 10, and from there lost their last five games straight. With a final-round bye this weekend, the Force have to hope the Fijian Drua and/or Highlanders don’t leap ahead of them into ninth with an upset win.
For contrast, since that extra-time draw, the Hurricanes have won four straight games and are playing this weekend to secure fourth spot.
If golf is the great leveller, then rugby is pretty effective at it as well.
The Force played the front nine well, but had a back nine to forget, and might have frustratingly bent a few clubs around trees in the process. Rugby, not unlike golf, can be a horrible, vindictive beast sometimes.
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The Tahs have missed most of the fairways and now have to hole out from the bunker to make the cut. They're also relying on MP missing their putt.
Excellent analogy extension JD. Golf clap for you.. 👏
The really frustrating thing this year has been how good the Reds have been in virtually all matches, but only in patches. I feel they have scrummed very well, with last weekend against the Hurricanes an exception. The lineout has been a shambles early but is now better if not rock solid. They have matched all teams at the breakdown on both sides of the ball, and in terms of building phases in most matches, but significantly not for the full 80 mins in any game. That Brial try last weekend was as good as any team has scored. I would not say the red zone rolling maul is what it could/should be, but current hooker Asiata and the injured Faessler are both great finisher off a good maul.
In the backs there have been many very clever and inventive plays, but so often spoiled by a poor pass, a dropped ball, and poor decision making o when to pass rather than take the ball into contact. Paisami a big culprit in this area.
Of the injuries, I would see Flook as being the most critical. He is just one of those players who is far better than he seems, bit like Conrad Smith was. His return should be a big bonus, and hopefully that will be this weekend.
So, cut out the errors, make the best decisions, and who knows……Chiefs will be very hard to beat though, by anyone.
I think Mizz, that inconsistency is what has crueled them. And the patches they are good at one week, they’ve been terrible the following week.
It’s hard to build momentum in a season when your form is all over the place..
If the Reds beat the Drua, they'll have an 8-6 regular season which means a 2nd straight winning season, something that can’t be taken for granted after how the post Link has been. What is undeniable is the performance levels have dropped from last year.
The start was decent against the Canes, the 1st 20 of the 2nd half was outstanding but they weren’t good enough for long enough despite my anger at the way the last 20 was officiated through my 2 red eyes.
Yep, good observations Mitch. All valid..
Aussie sides started with a bang but have faded with the exception of the Brumbies. How well they have come back to show their class and reaffirm their status as the premier Australian side. Reds have really tapered off. They can blame injuries but to be honest they need to look at themselves and their own ideals. If they actually built an innings in each game rather than trying to constantly bang out 7 pointers all the time maybe they would have more wins and would be entering the play offs in a different frame of mind. The Waratahs should have done better but at least they have improved since last year and the Force remain as enigmatic as ever delivering some stirring performances but also a few shockers. Australian Rugby looks much improved compared to last year however if you really assess the season it becomes obvious that those improvements are not half as much as they could have been and maybe should have been given the fact that one franchise was essentially cannibalised by the other 4. Overall I am slightly underwhelmed by the progress of the 4 teams after such an optimistic start. There is still time for that to change though, especially if Larkham leads the Brumbies to an unexpected but welcome title. Lets hope it happens.
Nice one SK, not really much to argue here.
I’m still pleased overall with the total Australian performance this year, even with the fade as you put it, there’s no question all four teams are in a better place than last year..
Fair across the board Brett.
Would add that the Force had no real margin for error injury-wise and then of course there were injuries but at the same time there were defensive lapses that are exasperating on a team that generally looks very well coached. Big challenge moving forward is Nic White aging. I think he has had an excellent year and it’s a shame Kurtley Beale probably has little left too. The second and third row and wings look great but that playmaking and attacking structure and execution will be a question mark as those two age out.
Have to think injuries got to the Reds. I am not sold on their grittiness close to the line but they lost a lot due to injury.
Waratahs were always going to be parts-greater than sum. Matt Philip should help their second row a lot.
I have little to offer golf analogies -wise. When I was at uni a mate who was a medical student got me to go the first 9 with him a bunch of times cause he said he had to develop a respectable game as a doctor-to-be. I did get used to saying play-through to bunches of competent strangers though.
Unorthodox but ineffective, was what we settled on to describe my game; plodding, his. 😁
Not sure how much time Beale and White have on their WF contracts, (I hope not another year) but if WF could find some good replacements for them, they really could be a different team. There is so much potential, I really think just 1 or 2 astute recruitments could get them into a good and consistent season with finals a real possibility.
“Bunches of competent strangers” 😆😂🤣 Love it, PM!
Good points on the Force - their squad is stronger this year, and depth deeper, but there was still a bit of a drop-off once they started going into that depth.
Angus Blyth might help the NSW 2nd row, too..
Bottom line better way better as teams as individuals…Keep on keeping on Aussie see if u can keep the odd schoolboy or 5 😂😂so much talent around our parts of the world
You will scoff as a Canberra based man, Brett, but hell, it is suddenly cold up here where I live, just north of Toowoomba…6.6 C, but a westerly wind off the Downs cutting that to windchill temp. 2.4 C. Hope that is not a bad omen for tonight’s State of Origin in Bne.
To the real rugby now. As a Qlder, I will concentrate on the Reds. But first two things. There is no question this year that the Brumbies are the top team over here on the “West Island” . And secondly, it is a relief to see that all the “West Island “ teams are far more competitive this year than for many in the past. That is an important element going towards the Lions games, and the RC. Wins will mean much more this year, losses will be more damaging…..the draw for the next RWC will take place in Dec, so as a high a placing as possible is crucial.
The Reds ? I would be in the camp of the 14 % in your survey, but instead of underwhelmed, I would say I am disappointed. We have been here before with the Reds. Anyone recall the year George Smith played for the Reds, coming back from a good spell playing in England ? To all our writers, if my memory is correct, and everyone of us foot soldier supporters, a great year was expected.
That year, 2018 I think, I saw the Reds in Bne. airport, as we headed off to Europe, they up to Japan . They looked confident, a win was on the cards. But they were badly beaten. That season went awry. This one is not as bad is my feeling, but still a big underperformance thus far.
Oh dear Miz, my heart bleeds for you 😂
People of the Darling Downs are the only Queenslanders I’ll allow to complain about the cold, Mizz! 😆
The injuries have certianly hurt the Reds, but as I say and have said a few times now, I’m not sure their methods have been great. Last week agains the Hurricanes, they even looked confused at times.
There’s a few coming back this week, so we’ll see if there’s any improvement..
Reds a prop or 2 and a smidgeon more firepower in the backs away from being right up there …great loosies with depth good locks Tates a gun and been thru tough times young 10s look good( tho reckon one with a stronger running backfield game wouldn’t go amiss) and everybody I have seen this year has had their moments just team gotta make those moments longer more often both attack and D all cup is def half full
Just had a quick read, Brett. Will be back to comment, over breakfast, on another excellent article. Daylight coming fast up here in Qld. so must get a bit done outside !