Where to now for Leinster as the 'Drive for Five' continues
The parallels between Ireland’s deflating Six Nations opener against England in February and Leinster’s loss to Saracens in the European final are easily made.
Leinster were hammered continually behind the gain line as Saracens test-quality pack dominated collisions and forced Leinster into their shell in a similar fashion to how Ireland were beaten into submission in Dublin in February.
It has to be said that this Saracens team that has been constructed is a modern marvel, with a host of the world’s best forwards in the midst of their peak years as athletes offering at least another two or three years to continue this run, many of whom have been homegrown through Saracens’ youth system.
England lock Maro Itoje is such a luxury that they can use him in the backrow to accommodate two other international locks – George Kruis and the reformed Wallaby Will Skelton. The 24-year-old Itoje has re-committed until 2022, while Skelton and Kruis are still in their late twenties. Skelton has foregone an opportunity to play at this year’s World Cup by re-signing with the club on a new two-year deal.
When both Vunipola’s are healthy, the impact they bring is irreplaceable for both England and Saracens. They are 26 and 28-years-old respectively, with many prime years left ahead. England hooker Jamie George, also 28, has cemented himself as the country’s number one throwing option, another piece of Saracens’ puzzle that isn’t going anywhere.
With the arrival of Wasps and England fullback Elliot Daly next year, they will have three Six Nations-quality starting fullbacks on the roster with Welsh international Liam Williams and Scotland’s Sean Maitland. England captain Owen Farrell is locked down on a five-year contract until 2022.
There isn’t going to be an attritional decline for this superpower of English rugby for at least three more seasons, which means that a number of Leinster’s ageing stars will have to regroup and find a new peak in order to topple them for more European glory.
Rob Kearney, Jonathan Sexton, Devin Toner, Sean O’Brien, Cian Healy, and Scott Fardy are all stars entering or already in the twilight of their playing careers. O’Brien is a confirmed departure, while many are speculating Kearney is heading to France. The rest will inevitably experience a dip in athleticism with age in contrast to Saracens’ core.
Whilst O’Brien has long been a talisman for Irish rugby, the baton had already been passed on in recent times, as he battled mounting injuries, two standout young loosies have begun international careers. Losing young flankers Dan Leavy and Josh van der Flier to injury this year has been significant for Leinster’s European ambitions.
In combination with Jack Conan, they are one of the most athletic back rows in Europe, with unrelenting drive fuelled by youthful exuberance, manic physicality and disruptive ability at the breakdown. Leavy was voted the man-of-the-match in the semi-final win over Saracens last year, illustrating the kind of difference he can make.
On balance, if all three are available next year, the back row would be one positional unit stronger than Saracens.
This is important for two reasons – superior back row strength will somewhat mitigate the ball-carrying impact that Billy and Mako Vunipola or Maro Itoje bring in close quarters. Leavy and van der Flier have the combative nature to slow the roll, as well as finely tuned engines to compete at a high number of rucks around the paddock to slow the recycle down.
Turnovers from the pack this European season have been limited with prop Cian Healy leading the team with eight.
Leinster players have publicly made it clear that the team under Leo Cullen has more emphasis on attacking from broken play than what the national side does under Schmidt. Turnover-generating machines are fuel to the fire for sides geared towards counter-attacking rugby, and having Leavy and van der Flier back will offer the impetus to provide more of these chances to free the likes of dangermen James Lowe and Jordan Larmour.
One former Leinster player that possesses the ability to change the balance of power in this rivalry is now with Munster.
Tadhg Beirne opted to return to Ireland with Munster after a run of injuries lead to being let go from Dublin three years ago. His newly minted two-year deal will prevent any homecoming, but with a monstrous 15 turnovers in this Champions Cup, he is just the kind of game-changing force that could be used alongside James Ryan that would seriously alter how effective Saracens’ pack would be.
Not to discredit how important Devin Toner has been but Beirne’s production is undeniably on a different level to anyone, whilst his toughness would bring the kind of edge required to unsettle Saracens. A Leinster return is unlikely at this stage, but it is a move that Ireland could make to match it with England.
A return to full fitness for Leinster’s pair of 7’s will help level the playing field. It is rare for every side to have a fully fit contingent so just who is available on the last weekend of European rugby next season for both Saracens and Leinster will determine a lot as it did this time around.
Mark McCall after Saracens’ European win:
Comments on RugbyPass
A wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
24 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
10 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to comments