The time is now for the next Wallabies No.10 to shine through

The Wallabies are preparing to host the ever-unpredictable, elite, and dangerous Argentina in a two-game series as part of the Rugby Championship, with back-to-back games in Australia.

This weekend, the teams meet in Townsville, far away from Argentinian supporters, before heading to Sydney for a match which the Los Pumas will no doubt be well supported by the city’s Latino community.

The Rugby Championship is the most even it’s been in years, not only on the ladder, where all four sides, New Zealand and South Africa as well, boast a win and a loss each, but on the field, there is very little between them.

As the Wallabies prepare for these crucial two Test matches, coach Joe Schmidt is faced with a conundrum at fly-half.

Backing the youth has been his modus operandi for much of the team, but particularly so for his playmakers. This is for good reason, because whoever dons the Wallabies’ No.10 jersey for the home World Cup in 2027 must have around 30 caps to their name, as per convention.

Not since one of the best flyhalves ever to play the game, Stephen Larkham at the 1999 World Cup, has an Australian fly-half led a team to World Cup victory with fewer than 30 Test caps.

South Africa’s Butch James is also an exception to the rule, leading the Springboks to the 2007 RWC win with 20 Test Caps.

Currently, none of the Wallabies’ playmakers are in the same league as Larkham, nor are they playing for the No.1-ranked team like James was in 2007.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

2

Draws

0

Wins

3

Average Points scored

26

34

First try wins

20%

Home team wins

40%

Even 66-cap veteran James O’Connor, aged 35, played a pivotal role in the Wallabies’ 62-year drought-breaking win against the Springboks at Ellis Park last month, isn’t in that league.

And it’s difficult to see him playing in the No.10 jersey in 2027, when he would be aged 37.

This then leaves the only other four flyhalves who have played for the Wallabies in 2025: Ben Donaldson, Tane Edmed, Noah Lolesio, and Tom Lynagh.

While this appears like more than enough talent, diverse skillsets, and the right age profile to work with, each player has complications that must be weighed and considered, and all four are on the clock to be ready for 2027, a race that started with Schmidt’s reign in 2024.

Lolesio, aged 25, is the most experienced by some distance. He’s the only player who currently has the aspirational 30 Test caps, as well as 83 club games for the ACT Brumbies and French Top 14 side Toulon.

However, Lolesio sustained a season-ending injury at the start of July, and he’s contracted to play in Japan in 2026.

Although Rugby Australia has done away with the remnants of the ‘Giteau Law’ now, the rule that worked to limit overseas selection, Lolesio still sits in a precarious position.

In 2026, incoming Wallabies coach Les Kiss will possibly favour his Queensland club fly-half in Lynagh. However, with his stance on OS selection not entirely clear, Lolesio will have to recover and just ply his trade as best he can in Japan in the hope of a call back.

Next are the three domestically based flyhalves in Edmed, Donaldson, and Lynagh. Lynagh is the youngest and least experienced.

At just 22 years old, he has six Test caps and 36 club caps for the Queensland Reds. He would have to play every Test between now and the RWC 2027 to even be close to the 30-cap mark.

Another player with limited experience is Edmed, the 25-year-old who is heading to the ACT Brumbies to play under Larkham himself, to replace Lolesio.

He has two Test caps and 55 club matches for the Waratahs, even if he played every game for the Waratahs in the next two seasons and the Wallabies, he would still be shy of Lolesio’s game count.

Finally, there’s Donaldson, the 26-year-old Western Force pivot who boasts 66 club games and 19 Test caps. He could overtake Lolesio in both club and Test caps should he stay fit and retain his matchday 23 jersey.

Now, nothing is stopping a playmaker not on this list from swooping in and soaking up all the Test caps between now and 2027, but with Schmidt’s bid for continuity and cohesion, it seems unlikely.

Because Lynagh and Edmed, with their fewer than 10 caps combined, have no mortgage on the jersey, and Donaldson has only started a handful of his 19 caps, it makes for some tricky, if not concerning, choices for the present coach as he looks to set up the future.

Australian club players play too few professional games a season, and this is what Super Rugby AUS, which starts in just a couple of weeks, is trying to address.

Rugby Championship

P

W

L

D

PF

PA

PD

BP T

BP-7

BP

Total

1

New Zealand

2

1

1

0

6

2

Australia

2

1

1

0

5

3

South Africa

2

1

1

0

4

4

Argentina

2

1

1

0

4

If we compare these four flyhalves with similarly aged Test-level 10s from around the world, then the rift in experience is stark.

France’s Ntmack (26) has 143 club caps and 41 Test caps. England’s Marcus Smith (26) has 178 club appearances and 46 Test caps. Argentina’s Santiago Carreras (27) has 98 club caps and 58 Test appearances. Finally, South Africa’s generational talent Sacha-Feinberg Mngomezulu (23) has 38 club caps and 12 Test caps.

Just this small excerpt shows how stark the difference is between the Wallabies’ fly-half stocks and those of other tier-one nations.

Looking at these numbers, it is clear to see that Lynagh, at age 26 or 27, could have as many Test caps as most of these international counterparts, and so could Donaldson if only a few years older, but the caveat is that he must play almost every Test between now and then.

This equation is also complicated by the time limit of the 2027 RWC, as Lynagh will be just 25, the same age as Larkham was at the 1999 RWC; however, so far, he has not shown the game-breaking ability that Larkham did.

This is also without acknowledging the issue that four No.10s do not go into a matchday 23, and so someone must stand up during the rest of the TRC and lock the jersey down to ensure caps and game time.

Finally, the issue isn’t solely down to Test caps in the bag, but rather the combinations and cohesion a playmaker builds with the men inside and outside him during these caps.

Picking and sticking isn’t a bull-headed endeavour of insanity, doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome; it is an acknowledgement that tested combinations around the park matter, and a big one is the No.10’s cohesion with those around him.

This is all to say that while Schmidt cannot be reckless in thrusting in the youth, he must continue to get them on the field in every game if they are to have any chance of having the experience required to regularly win World Cups.

Test caps are one thing, but the right age profile in a position where players must be calm, measured, and unflappable is also crucial, and Lynagh is right on the edge.

O’Connor is the obvious choice to start in Townsville against Argentina; it bodes well for cohesion and continuity, as there will be at least one change in the backline at fullback and one at lock due to the injury of Tom Wright and the departure of Will Skelton.

However, Test-to-Test, week-to-week, the time ticks on, and Schmidt is going to have to put his money where his mouth is and back the youth in Queensland.

Lynagh is the playmaker Schmidt backed after Lolesio went down, and with Kiss likely to do the same, that is who should be in the No.10 jersey in Townsville, if not at the very least donning the No.22 against Los Pumas on Saturday.