LONG READ Wales forced to wear underdog tag against Italy but hope power pack can kickstart renaissance

When Wales swept into a 31-6 lead against Italy in Cardiff in 1996, a local observer jokingly suggested that all in the home camp would be pleased if the Azzurri were admitted to European rugby’s most famous tournament, making it the Six Nations, as “Wales would at least be able to beat someone each season”.

Those words haven’t aged fantastically well.

In fact, they had started to look a bit questionable by full-time that very evening, as an Italian side inspired by the fly-half Diego Dominguez hit back with 20 unanswered points to leave Wales clinging on at 31-26.

And these days there are very definitely few rugby jests directed Italy’s way from anyone Welsh or otherwise.

Michele Lamaro’s team will pitch up in Cardiff on Saturday expecting to win, whether they say as much publicly or not, having defeated Wales three times in their last four meetings and seen off Scotland and England in this Six Nations. No longer easy-beats, they have become a force to be reckoned with.

Against England, they were relentless up front with their No. 8 Lorenzo Cannone immense as a carrier, his brother Niccolo an unyielding force at lock and the loosehead Danilo Fischetti elite class in defence and at the breakdown.

They were also awash with attacking flair behind in the shape of Monty Ioane and Louis Lynagh on the wings, Lorenzo Pani at full-back and Ignacio Brex and Tomasso Menoncello in midfield, with the latter doing enough to suggest that were a World XV picked to play Mars tomorrow he would be one of the first names on the team sheet – and the Martians would need to make sure they were on top of their defensive drills.

Wales, meantime, remain rooted to the bottom of the Six Nations table despite another improved performance, this time against Ireland, who, lest we forget, had racked up 42 points against England six days earlier.

Steve Tandy has opted to keep faith with the players who started in Dublin, with the only change to his 23 seeing Blair Murray come onto the bench in place of Louie Hennessey. It is the first time for the head coach to name an unchanged side since he took over the Wales reins, reflecting the quiet satisfaction he and his fellow coaches took from elements of their side’s effort against Ireland, a display that saw Wales trail by just two points with 12 minutes to go.

Remember, they were up against a side that had been priced at 1/50 for the encounter at the Aviva. Possibly, some Irish bookies were offering 6/4 that the referee would take pity on Wales by stopping the game after 60 minutes. Or maybe not. But the visitors were definitely seen as whipping boys in waiting by many.

the Welsh players are retaining belief, with the admirable Dewi Lake saying after the Ireland game: “The win is coming. I can feel it. It’s around the corner.”

But there was no whipping handed out in the Irish capital. Wales were competitive for the entire game and displayed a spirit nowhere to be seen when they started the championship against England at Twickenham barely a month ago.

It just seems a long time since they won a game in this tournament.  In the week of the 150th anniversary of the first phone call, those who struggle to see silver linings might wonder whether the first words Alexander Graham Bell uttered to his assistant Thomas Watson were actually: “Can you hear me, Tom? This Welsh losing streak is dragging on a bit, isn’t it?”

Truly the defeats have been coming for too long.

But the Welsh players are retaining belief, with the admirable Dewi Lake saying after the Ireland game: “The win is coming. I can feel it. It’s around the corner.”

In adversity, the skipper has set a fine example. Rewind four weeks and plenty were offloading their Dewi Lake shares, with some unfairly seeing the hooker as the sole cause of Wales’ lineout malaise against England. A botched tap-and-go and 10 minutes in the bin did nothing to soften criticism of the hooker, while some accused Lake of a lack of leadership, with the more extreme elements on social media also appearing ready to blame him for the recent bad weather, Tottenham languishing near the bottom of the Premier League and Punch the monkey being snubbed by his mother.

Few are on Lake’s case now. A glance at the stats reveals he is in the top 10s for carries (54), tackles (54) and dominant hits (6). No other hooker features in any of those charts. Were there a Lions squad named this week, Lake would be in it.  He has been determination personified, with his leadership exactly what Wales needed.

Others have come to the fore, too, among them the Welsh props. Rhys Carre deservedly had his name put up in lights after his try for the ages in Dublin, but Tomas Francis has not had the credit he deserves. During the big man’s hiatus from Test rugby, the Welsh scrum was there to be picked on. If it wasn’t quite the rugby equivalent of the weedy chap on the beach who has sand kicked in his face on a regular basis, it frightened no-one.  But Francis has fortified the operation, adding his technique, experience and not insignificant bulk.

Italy will look to test him after enjoying success against Scotland, Ireland and France in the pushing and shoving game. But Tandy will have quiet confidence that Frankie, as the former Osprey is widely known, will not let him down.

Alex Mann – he of 33 tackles against Ireland – Dafydd Jenkins and Aaron Wainwright seem intent on challenging productivity records every time they play

Let’s return to the man who started on the other side of the scrum. Props who are a cow-pie or two shy of 22st tend not to be able to move quickly, but Carre showed himself to be the exception last Friday, moving so rapidly for his try there were some speed cameras that might have struggled to pick him up.

Carre’s treatment of Robert Baloucoune, as the Ireland wing attempted to stop him, called to mind a grizzly bear pawing away a wasp that had dared to interrupt its evening meal. The sight of the big Welshman grinning as he pounded his way towards the Irish line played out well on the internet, too, with 22 million views hurriedly piling up on social media platforms.

But one moment reveals only so much. Tandy will be pleased there has been so much more from the Cowbridge product. As well as holding his own in the scrums against Scotland, Carre made 10 carries, scored a try and achieved a turnover, all in the space of 43 minutes.

There have been other hard-working Welsh forwards, as well. Alex Mann – he of 33 tackles against Ireland – Dafydd Jenkins and Aaron Wainwright seem intent on challenging productivity records every time they play; James Botham and Ben Carter have grafted relentlessly; Nicky Smith has made a mark off the bench.

But maybe the first of that bunch deserves a paragraph all to himself. So prodigious was Mann’s effort in the Irish capital, there are professors of logic who’d struggle to explain how the back-rower failed to win the man-of-the-match award. Such matters are subjective, of course, but some decisions are evidently more subjective than others.

The signs, then, are promising for Tandy’s men, but that first Six Nations win since 2023 remains tantalisingly out of reach. Wales are still lacking both fluency and imagination behind. It says much that their top try scorer in this Six Nations is a heavyweight prop: Carre, in case you’re wondering, with three. So far, the Welsh pack are outscoring the backs in the matter of touchdowns. Those with long memories will ponder that things were once done very differently.

Positives in the backline? Eddie James has announced himself as a significant player with his raw power, with the centre averaging 2.2 metres through contact, while most of the stats similarly show Louis Rees-Zammit in a positive light.

Wales also have scope to improve their kicking out of hand. Some of it was wayward in Dublin, at other times it was too cautious. Their attacking play? Most of it was predictable

But, even then, there are questions, with some feeling Wales would get even more out of James as an inside centre than as a 13 and see greater impact from Zammit as a wing instead of as a full-back. Maybe it’s a question of creating space for Zammit. Do that and Wales will see the best of him, whatever number he wears on his back. Would the 6ft 4in, 17st 5lb James be even more use firing into opposition fly-halves from 12?  Whatever, Tandy is not for tinkering: like everyone else, the pair stay in the shirts they wore against Ireland.

Wales also have scope to improve their kicking out of hand. Some of it was wayward in Dublin, at other times it was too cautious. Their attacking play? Most of it was predictable – some of it as predictable as a red scarf at Anfield. Consider those areas to work-on, then.

But Tandy will feel the positives outweigh the negatives.

Students of historical drama, however, will know that these early spring days are not without potential perils. In Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, the soothsayer didn’t say to the Roman leader: “Everything’s going swimmingly, mate. Crack on.” He warned him to watch his step – or more accurately, he brought the Ides of March into the conversation. Moral of that little tale, on the very weekend in the calendar that Caesar came unstuck?  Wales need to be careful.

Italy are good enough to cause the best in this tournament problems, and this weekend they are up against a team who are bottom of the table and have lost 25 of their last 27 games in all matches. Such reality may be sobering, but it’s where Wales are at.

Everything has to be earned. Wales are tracking in the right direction but they are not a strong enough side that they can afford to be even slightly below their best.

Hopefully, Tandy and his players will know that by now.