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The Breakdown: A statistical look at Saturday's rugby internationals
England will attempt to continue their dominance of Australia and in-form Wales host South Africa in another mouthwatering Test on Saturday.
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The Wallabies have lost their last five matches against old rivals England and Eddie Jones will be desperate to send his compatriots home on the back of another defeat at Twickenham.
Wales have won eight consecutive matches, but they can expect a stern test from the Springboks in Cardiff.
Ireland ought to have far too much for the United States, while New Zealand should end their tour with a victory over Italy. Scotland host Argentina and France entertain Fiji in another busy day of international rugby.
With the help of Opta, we take a statistical look at this weekend’s matches.
England v Australia
Australia have never suffered six straight defeats to England, so they will be out to avoid making unwanted history in the Cook Cup showdown.
The Wallabies will aim to secure back-to-back victories for the first time in over a year following a 26-7 defeat of Italy last weekend.
Australia have just four Test victories to their name in 2018; the last time they picked up fewer than five wins in a calendar year was in 1995.
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Dylan Hartley is in line to make a record 56th international appearance at Twickenham, surpassing Jason Leonard’s tally.
Continue reading below…
Watch: Eddie Jones talks to RugbyPass ahead of Australia Test
France v Fiji
France have been victorious in all nine previous encounters with Fiji, although they have not played against them since 2014. This will be the first time the Pacific Islanders have played at Stade de France.
Fiji have won four of their past seven games away from home – all three of their defeats in that run came against Tier 1 nations, with two of those being decided by single-figure margins.
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Fiji have won each of their last three games on French soil, beating the United States (2014) and Japan (2016) in Vannes before victory over Canada in Narbonne in 2017.
Ireland v USA
This will be the 10th Test meeting between Ireland and the USA, and the fourth to take place in Dublin, with Ireland winning each of the previous nine encounters.
Ireland recorded a 55-19 victory in their most recent clash against the USA in June 2017, a game in which James Ryan and Jacob Stockdale both scored debut tries.
The USA have won their last nine Tests. They had previously never won more than four games on the bounce.
Ireland have conceded just 14 penalties in their three games this month, with their average of 4.7 penalties per game the lowest of any Tier 1 nation in November. No other side has conceded fewer than seven on average.
Here's your Ireland team to play @USARugby in the final test match of the #GuinnessSeries#TeamOfUs #ShoulderToShoulder #IREvUSA pic.twitter.com/5E6ryvRSjc
— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) November 22, 2018
Italy v New Zealand
The All Blacks have won all 13 encounters with Italy, scoring at least 50 points in nine of those matches.
After losing to Ireland last weekend, the world champions will now be out to avoid consecutive defeats for the first time since August 2011.
Italy’s Sergio Parisse is set to move clear of Gethin Jenkins as the fourth most-capped player in history (both currently have 134 caps). He will also become the second most-capped forward behind Richie McCaw (148).
Italy have lost their last 14 games at Stade Olimpico; their last victory at the famous Rome venue came in March 2013, when they handed Ireland a stunning 22-15 Six Nations defeat.
#Movember ?? pic.twitter.com/cwVUvyn0lZ
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) November 22, 2018
Scotland v Argentina
Scotland have won six of their last seven Tests against Argentina, their solitary defeat in that run coming at the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
The Pumas have won just two of their last 14 away games and have not been victorious away to two Tier 1 sides in a calendar year since beating Italy and France in November 2014.
Huw Jones assisted Scotland’s opening try in the loss to South Africa last weekend and has now been directly involved in 14 tries in his 18 Test appearances. No Scotland player has been involved in more in that time, but Stuart Hogg has matched the tally with seven tries and as many assists.
Seven of Scotland’s tries in 2018 have come from their replacements. Only New Zealand have seen their bench players cross the whitewash more often this year (10).
Continue reading below…
Watch: Gregor Townsend speaks ahead of Saturday’s Test against Argentina.
Wales v South Africa
Only twice have Wales enjoyed longer winning runs in their Test history than the current sequence of eight (winning 11 from 1907-1910 and 10 in 1999).
The only Tier 1 nation to have spent less time in possession on average this year than South Africa (16 minutes 46 seconds) is Wales (16 mins 37 secs).
Wales have won their last three games against South Africa at the Principality Stadium, two of which were by a margin of six points or fewer.
No player has scored more points in 2018 than South Africa’s Handre Pollard (118) – however Wales’ Leigh Halfpenny has averaged 11 points per game this year, the second most of any Tier 1 player behind Beauden Barrett (11.5).
Video: Warren Gatland looks ahead to Springboks clash
Comments on RugbyPass
“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to comments