Super Rugby Oracle: All the picks for Round 6
Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 6.
The Oracle has got his groove back after a shaky start to the season, registering 7/8 correct picks for the second week running in Round 4. That brings his season record to 31/42 or 74%. Can he nudge it over 75 there this week?
Highlanders vs Rebels (Dunedin)
The Highlanders have occasionally had issues with the Rebels, but only because they didn’t take the game seriously. Given what happened at Canberra last week, and how well the team played (and how Tony Brown kept his guns on the field until the match was won rather than dragging them all with 20 to go), you get the impression they won’t be making that mistake in Dunedin. The Rebels played well enough against the Waratahs, but still managed to lose from what should have been an unlosable position. So, quick and easy: I think the Highlanders will win, win well and maybe even turn on a show.
Pick: Highlanders
Blues vs Force (Auckland)
Previewing this game could be done in a few words. The Blues should win and win well; if they can get that rusty first 40 minutes out of their systems it could be well worth a watch (assuming the Auckland weather, which is now into ‘change of season’ mode, plays ball). The Force couldn’t cope with the Crusaders rumbling them to death last week but face a whole bunch of different problems with the Blues. The biggest one is that if, true to form, they insist on kicking the ball away all evening it could be coming back fast and hard regularly. And tries could follow, also regularly. The Blues have it in them to win this one by plenty; if their hands are up to the task, they will.
Pick: Blues
Chiefs vs Bulls (Hamilton)
There was nothing in the Bulls performance at Albany to suggest they have any means of coping with the Chiefs, especially as their hosts are coming off a bye and therefore won’t feel the need to rest their guns. Anything the Blues did in the second half the Chiefs can do just as well. And they can do it in the first half as well. Despite the Bulls pack being pretty good I think they’ll get taken apart; the Chiefs are too fast, too slick and too good. That call is semi-dependent on the weather, which will curb the margin if it’s too wet, but not alter the result.
Pick: Chiefs
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Reds vs Hurricanes (Brisbane)
These games, especially at Brisbane, can be difficult for the New Zealand sides. Having said that, the Hurricanes will still win – they have been too good for everyone bar the Chiefs so far; as well as being too good, they’ve racked up huge numbers of tries and points. The Reds huffed and puffed after winning their opener, but since then they would struggle to win a raffle if they held all the tickets. They have little imagination, they’re not fast of thought or foot and they certainly won’t beat the Hurricanes by turning the ball over all day. The visitors should win this one by plenty and probably turn on some dazzle along the way.
Pick: Hurricanes
Stormers vs Cheetahs (Cape Town)
The weekend’s first game not involving a New Zealand team should still see the favourite at very short odds, but I expect the Stormers won’t be unbackably short. The Cheetahs play some good footy in patches but intersperse it with moments of pure carelessness which really hurt, and they struggle against a big and accurate pack – which the Stormers have. The home side also left its two most influential forwards at home when they made the jaunt to Singapore, and few teams have a lock pairing to match Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit. The Cheetahs certainly don’t, no matter how well Francois Uys happens to play. Fred Zeilinga’s goal-kicking may be the Cheetahs biggest weapon; the all-round speed and strength of the Stormers will be theirs. Speed and strength should win out by 10-15 points.
Pick: Stormers
Lions vs Sharks (Johannesburg)
This deserves to be classified as match of the round, because these are two good teams and both are getting the job done, albeit in different ways. The Lions are a spread it wide, catch us if you can, doesn’t matter if you score 25 because we’ll score 45 type of team, and very effective at it. The Sharks are bloody-minded, aggressive, physical, committed and good at winning kickable penalties and then turning them into goals. They’re also very effective at their style. They’ve both won four from five on merit, and I hope this match gets a dry day and a decent crowd, because it deserves both. While there’s plenty to respect about the Sharks, I like watching the Lions and the way they attack every game; I also think they’re the better team for modern conditions but they’ll have to work hard to win this one. I think we can be certain that it won’t be over at halftime.
Pick: Lions
Waratahs vs Crusaders (Sydney)
The Crusaders have a good record at Sydney, which is not something a lot of overseas teams can claim. They have a historical whip hand in this match and, you can be sure, someone in Sydney will raise the spectre of 2002 at some time during the build-up. The 2017 Crusaders could never put up a score like that, but they can batter this Waratahs pack into submission and probably will. If they can scrum properly this week and not concede penalties and men to the bin, they have all forward bases covered. The Waratahs have two of the three best individual backs but the Crusaders can all tackle, even if they can’t cut teams to bits. Anything other than a comfortable Crusaders win will be a shock; even if they played badly I doubt the visitors could lose this one.
Pick: Crusaders
TL;DR: Highlanders / Blues / Chiefs / Hurricanes / Stormers / Lions / Crusaders
Comments on RugbyPass
pure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
1 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
25 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
25 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
25 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
11 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
3 Go to comments