Stats: Who Holds The Upper Hand Heading Into The Super Rugby Semifinals?
Just four teams remain in the hunt for the Super Rugby title. Scotty Stevenson breaks down the strengths and weaknesses of each of the semifinalists.
How do we judge which of the four Super Rugby semifinalists put up the best performance last week? For sheer scoreline, it’s hard to look past the Hurricanes who, in truly atrocious conditions, handed the Sharks a history making 41-zip hiding at the Caketin – the first time a team has been held scoreless in the playoffs. The Lions eased out to a 42-25 victory over the Crusaders who had no answer to the up-tempo game of the hosts, the Highlanders rode their TMO luck to hold on for dear life and emerge on the right side of a 15-9 slug-fest against the Brumbies, and the Chiefs embarrassed the Stormers, 60-21.
The Chiefs were simply too creative and too staunch to give the Stormers any chance of winning their quarterfinal at Newlands. Creativity has been a hallmark of this team all season long, and no player has been more creative than rookie of the year Damian McKenzie. McKenzie has carried the ball more and beaten more defenders than any other player this season, has made the second most offloads and clean breaks, and sits third in metres gained. He has been the click in the Chiefs click play but he wasn’t even in the top 25 players for carries or metres in the quarterfinals. That’s important as it shows there are other players in the backline who can spark the attack.
What is also important is that the Chiefs boasted nine players inside the top 25 tacklers of the round. Kane Hames led all players with 16 takedowns, while Dom Bird, Tom Sanders and Nathan Harris (12), Brodie Retallick and Anton Lienart-Brown (11), Brad Weber (10), Aaron Cruden and Atu Moli (9) all joined him on the list.
Sam Cane, who left the field for concussion protocol at the 40-minute mark, did not feature in the tackle count this week, but it pays to point out that Hames’ 16 tackles were made in just 60 minutes. To have the best attacker and best defender in the team overshadowed by other players in the biggest game of the season (and the Chiefs’ biggest score of the season) does plenty to illustrate the depth and desire in the side.
The Chiefs have plenty of that and will likely welcome back both Michael Leitch and Seta Tamanivalu, who combined for three tries in the Chiefs’ one-point win over the Hurricanes in Wellington in April – a game in which Leitch also made 14 tackles. That will be a big boost to the Chiefs who will be punished by the travel schedule and who also used a lot of gas in defence in Cape Town.
One thing the Hurricanes will have noted is that the Chiefs’ width defence needs some work. Toni Pulu and Sam McNicol each missed four tackles against the Stormers and Jaco Taute was allowed more running metres than any other player in the quarterfinals.
It is interesting to note that the Chiefs’ win in Wellington back in April came off the back of their worst metres run return of the season, and in a match in which they were forced to make twice as many tackles while managing just 40% possession. Against the Stormers the Chiefs were forced to make twice as many tackles and had just 40% possession. Coincidence?
The Hurricanes were a class above the Sharks in Wellington in apocalyptic capital weather, and the performance of TJ Perenara was arguably the most dominant of his Super Rugby career. Undoubtedly the semifinals will pit the four best halves combinations in the world against one another. The Perenara-Barrett pairing has been consistent all year, and was superb against the Sharks.
While Perenara topped all runners for the Hurricanes, it was the way in which he and Barrett combined in the kick game that really caught the eye. The pair combined for 23 kicks in play against the Sharks showing both an awareness of the weather and of the Sharks limited counter attack. They won’t have the same luxury against the Chiefs who return the ball far better than the Sharks, but their ability to find space and direct traffic with the boot is crucial.
The Hurricanes share one key benefit with the Chiefs in the fact that James Marshall and Barrett can each play first receiver. Aaron Cruden and Damian McKenzie have shown the benefits of the twin-pivot system all season long for the Chiefs in a much more pronounced way, but there is a danger in allowing Marshall too much time up from fullback. Marshall (mainly on kick return) carried more than any other Hurricane last week, and he and Barrett for 22 carries in total. The Chiefs will be aware of the danger of allowing either to run too much.
They will also be aware of the Hurricanes improved defence, which last week boasted 105 tackles at 94%. Granted, the Sharks are not the most elusive team in the competition, but the Hurricanes tackling average this year has been 85%, so the 94% return is a massive confidence boost. No team has managed to make that kind of tackling percentage this season.
And it’s not just in tackling percentage where the Hurricanes can dominate. No semifinal side has allowed fewer running metres this year, and no side has forced more tackles. The Hurricanes will make any side earn the yards, and the explosiveness of Ardie Savea, Vaea Fifita and and ever-improving Willis Halaholo keep defensive systems wary of over-stretching.
The Hurricanes have also become the masters of control: they boast the best ruck retention rate in the semifinals and retain more possession than all bar the Lions, with the lowest turnover rate – an important consideration against a counter-attacking team such as the Chiefs. The Hurricanes made 19 turnovers against the Chiefs in April, which cost them the game.
One other note on the Hurricanes: Cory Jane is often criticised for his lack of running game. On the weekend he posted exactly zero running metres. A word to the wise: Jane’s defensive ability and vision of the game means he shuts down his entire quarter of the field – teams won’t kick to him because they know the danger he poses.
The Lions were outstanding against the Crusaders who, as was predicted last week, struggled against the all-out attack of the South Africans. The Lions really are anathema to the traditional South African style of play but they deserve their hosting rights in the semifinal. They also deserve to be considered favourites against the defending champions.
This is the highest possession side in the semifinals against the lowest possession side in the semifinals. The Lions have made a season out of putting away the boot and attacking with ball in hand. As things stand they have scored more points and tries per game than any other side, run for more metres and beaten more defenders, made the fewest tackles and – counter-intuitively considering their low tackle count – made the most turnovers per game.
So far this season, opposition teams have kicked the least against the Lions, which could be considered the great sucker punch of the year. Whether the Highlanders fall into the same trap will be interesting, considering they produce more kicks in play than any other side. The Lions have rarely been tested on kick return – though they were against the Highlanders in the regular season and lost the match 15-34 despite having – and this is a scarcely believable stat – 71% of possession.
In truth, almost half of that possession was held inside their own half in that match, which the Highlanders will well remember heading into this knockout match. It pays to note that in all three of the Lions’ losses (all against New Zealand sides) the opposition kicked the ball more than the Lions’ opposition average this season. The Hurricanes, who gave the Lions their only genuine hiding of the season, kicked the ball 27 times against them, which is the average number of kicks the Highlanders have produced per game this season.
On the plus side for the Lions is the tireless defensive work of the likes of Franco Mostert (deservedly player of the match last week against the Crusaders), Warwick Tecklenberg and Malcolm Marx. Tecklenberg and Marx have combined for 24 turnovers won this season while Mostert leads all tacklers in the Lion side.
One weak link in the Lions defence is first five eighth Elton Jantjies who has slipped off 28 attempts this year. The Highlanders will attempt to exploit that channel this week. Despite the defensive frailty, Jantjies still combined well with mini-Fabio halfback Faf de Klerk and it is this halves combination that will have to produce on the level of Smith-Sopoaga if they want to succeed.
They could do worse than to give the ball as much as possible to right wing Ruan Combrinck who has been the breakthrough player of the year in South Africa. Combrinck’s duel with Patrick Osborne will be one of the best showdowns of the season.
The Highlanders have built their reputation on defence and that reputation was only enhanced in Canberra on Friday night when they tackled their way through the final ten minutes to book a semifinal in Johannesburg.
The Highlanders have become the masters at the scramble, missing more first up tackles than any other team in the semifinals, but somehow finding a way to still boast the best overall tackling percentage. The Highlanders, for all their flair, show a genuine patience for the best moments to attack, and rely on other teams’ mistakes for wins (they make the fewest turnovers in the competition). They also are stingy, conceding the fewest points per game this season and the fewest tries.
That’s not to say this is a team that cannot attack, but the fact is they have also scored fewer points and fewer tries than any other semifinal side. They also carry the ball the least, make the fewest run metres, the fewest breaks, beat the fewest defenders and boast the fewest rucks. Only the Kings spent less time with the ball this season and that was because they had no idea what to do with it.
For all their lack of possession and their game-of-chicken approach, the Highlanders do have one ace up their attacking sleeve and that is their offload game, led by Malakai Fekitoa, which has punished teams all season. The Highlanders axis of attack – Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga and Ben Smith – provides a shepherding quality to force players into support positions which, when it works, has led to some of the most breathless moments of the season. When it doesn’t, it leads to more turnovers per game than any other team.
The Lions will have to be aware of the workrate of Lima Sopoaga who carried more than any other player against the Brumbies. That is expecially relevant given his opposite Elton Jantjies’ missed tackle count this season. There is also the dual threat posed by Patrick Osborne and Waisake Naholo who receive the ball more than any other wing combination in the competition.
If the Highlanders can play kick-and-stick again this weekend then there is no reason they can’t emerge victorious against the Lions. The only question is whether their scramble can hold out for another week.
Comments on RugbyPass
The side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
4 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
4 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to commentsJacobsen will definitely be in the 23
4 Go to commentsLots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
4 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
6 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
6 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to comments