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Six Nations 2017 Preview: Discount the Mongrel Welsh at Your Peril
Could we be in for a more subtle, free-flowing, expansive Wales this year? Here’s hoping, writes James Harrington.
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What to look out for
Something a little different, if you don’t mind, Wales? In recent years the Welsh game has been – individual moments of brilliance apart – stultifyingly dull, direct and predictable. Interim coach Rob Howley has selected a side including seven uncapped players that, on paper at least, looks as if they will play something a little more subtle, free-flowing, and expansive. Here’s hoping.
Strengths
The mongrel attitude of the never-say-die Welsh. They have been underdogs before, and despite fairly dire performances in the November internationals (where they still managed to win three of their four games!) it would be a mistake to write them off completely. They have come into this tournament pretty much under the radar, while everyone has focused on England and Ireland. That could work to their advantage – but only if they have come up with a gameplan beyond the much-maligned ‘Warrenball’.
Weaknesses
Form. Those November internationals will have done little to ease the worries of Wales fans. Could this be the beginning of the end of the Warren Gatland-Rob Howley era?
The Man in Charge
With Warren Gatland back on Lions’ duty, the Welsh have put Rob Howley in charge. The last time that happened – again when Gatland was in charge of the big summer tour – Wales won the 2013 tournament despite losing their opening match. This time, he’s developing a team very much in transition… and time is not on his side.
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Player to Watch
Wasps’ mighty Thomas Young. The son of the club’s director of rugby and former British Lion Dai has made the most of the chances that have come his way, while injuries have sidelined both James Haskell and Sam Jones. He has been key to the club’s fast, fluid style; a link-man between forwards and backs. Despite his relatively small stature, Young has proven he is more than robust enough to tangle with the biggest and best of them.
Best Chance of an Upset
Closing the roof at the Principality Stadium. After all, the fixture list is not in their favour. After an opening weekend away-day in Rome, they have two rather more difficult games in Edinburgh and Paris, and their two home matches are against England and Ireland – both sides with noticeably shorter odds on tournament success. But, if the roof is closed and the crowd ramps up the noise, who knows what could happen? A win against either of the tournament favourites would make Wales contenders for the crown.
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Prediction
Fourth. Joe Schmidt last week labelled Wales a ‘sleeping giant’ ahead of the tournament – which is often regarded as a hint of better things to come. It’s probably true, but the downside is it also means that they’re not quite good enough yet, despite all the pre-tournament optimism among fans. Three away fixtures, including a final day trip to new-look France, is likely to dull the dragon’s roar this year.
Squad
Forwards: Scott Andrews, Scott Baldwin, Jake Ball, Luke Charteris, Olly Cracknell, Kristian Dacey, Rob Evans, Taulupe Faletau, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (c), Rhodri Jones, James King, Samson Lee, Ross Moriarty, Ken Owens, Nicky Smith, Rory Thornton, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton, Thomas Young
Backs: Dan Biggar, Alex Cuthbert, Aled Davies, Jonathan Davies, Gareth Davies, Sam Davies, Steffan Evans, Leigh Halfpenny, Ashton Hewitt, George North, Jamie Roberts, Rhys Webb, Liam Williams, Owen Williams, Scott Williams
Comments on RugbyPass
It’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
24 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
24 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
1 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
2 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
14 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
24 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
14 Go to commentsDoes the AI take into account refs? hahaha Seriously why not have two on field refs to avoid bias?
24 Go to comments