Five 'Moneyball' players who could be All Blacks bolters under Rennie

When Dave Rennie was announced as the next All Blacks head coach, former Chiefs prop Ben Afeaki compared his coaching style at the club to the movie ‘Moneyball’, which told the story of how statistical analysis overhauled the coaching philosophies of Major League Baseball team the Oakland A’s and led to a record 20-game win streak, revolutionising the sport.

For the Chiefs, Rennie’s approach brought back-to-back titles and made him the first first-year head coach to win Super Rugby’s big dance.

In particular, Afeaki highlighted statistics on players’ work rate and said Rennie would consider them alongside a simple policy of “picking good buggers.”

Now Rennie has been in his role as All Blacks coach for nearly four weeks — although still coaching the Kobelco Kobe Steelers in Japan Rugby League One concurrently — and has appointed his wider coaching staff, attention has shifted to what that emphasis on statistics could mean for players putting their hands up in the current Super Rugby Pacific season.

Analysing the numbers, the Aotearoa Rugby Pod panellists pinpointed five players, as yet uncapped by the All Blacks, whose numbers show they contribute to winning rugby in a way that a Moneyball-minded coach may appreciate more than his predecessors.

To first establish who qualifies for the category and who doesn’t, former Blues captain and two-cap All Black James Parsons looked at the case of one of Super Rugby’s brightest young stars.

“Is Caleb Tangitau a Moneyball player? We came to the opinion that it’s not such a Moneyball (pick). He’s a superstar,” Parsons explained.

“That’s not saying that these guys aren’t superstars. They’ve got the ability, they’ve done their time, and they’re ready. And, they’ve got a whole history of stats that say that they can deliver.”

Fixture

Nations Championship

New Zealand

34 - 32

Full-time

France

All Stats and Data

Parsons and his co-panellist, former Crusader and current Kubota Spears halfback Bryn Hall, then listed their respective three-man lists of potential All Blacks bolters based on the ‘Moneyball’ premise. The full Aotearoa Rugby Pod episode is available on RugbyPass TV.

“Daniel Rona. He has just been a quiet achiever. He’s a Mr Fix-it,” Parsons said. “he can play second-five, centre, wing, probably could play fullback. Defensively, attack, his stats are through the roof. He’s a big contributor wherever he plays.”

Hall continued the conversation with his first player: “I’m going to stick with the midfield, and I’m going to go for Bailyn Sullivan. He does it time and time again with the defensive pressure that he’s able to execute at a high level, his distribution skills, his kicking, his ability to be able to be Mr Fix-it when it comes to utility.”

Parsons stuck to the backline with his second pick: “My number two is Jona Nareki. 50-22s, counter-attack, his ability to react to what defensive pictures there are. People may have some questions around the high ball, but with his time in sevens, he has the ability to hold his own there.

“I like everything about him. The big thing will be staying on the field. His injuries have probably stopped his chances previously. He’s always been in the conversation for the All Blacks. But I tell you what, he just keeps delivering year after year.”

Hall’s second pick saw the first forward of the conversation come to the fore: “I’m going to go Josh Beehre. I think, with the way that he’s been performing for a long time, and all the areas that are important, in the tight stuff, he’s very good in around the breakdown area, has a high work rate in terms of with the ball in hand, and has been able to make tackles as well.”

Parsons accurately predicted both pundits would have the same player as their top Moneyball candidate.

“I’m thinking we’ll both have the same number one: Devan Flanders. He is Mr Moneyball. He is ready to rock and roll, isn’t he?

“When you just look at his stats across NPC and Super Rugby for five years, it is silly.”

The honourable mentions list the pair produced was exhaustive, with Hall highlighting Chiefs halfback Xavier Roe, describing the 27-year-old as his “Moneyball captain.”

Parsons also noted Blues lock Josh Beehre and flanker Anton Segner; Chiefs playmaker Josh Jacomb and flanker Kaylum Boshier; Highlanders fullback Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, hooker Jack Taylor, and flanker Sean Withy; and called former All Blacks Sevens dynamo-turned Blues winger Cody Vai a “stats freak.”

To round out his list of honourable mentions, Parsons named one more young player just starting to make his mark in Super Rugby Pacific.

“I’ve got an outsider, and bear with me, because they haven’t had a long career, but I just think he is someone that would just look so good in international rugby; very similar to Du’Plessis Kirifi, when he gets his chance, I don’t think he’ll let anyone down: Veveni Lasaqa.

“Unbelievable. You watch his reactions, loose ball, someone makes a line break, he’s gone.”