Re-building the All Blacks pack to reverse the last result against Ireland
In the 29-20 loss to Ireland in Dublin last November, the All Blacks were put under enormous strain as the Irish boldly chased tries and held the ball for long periods with consistency.
As a result, Ian Foster’s side had few opportunities from turnover ball and were lacklustre with ball in hand when they had it.
It took less than two minutes for the Irish attack to breach the All Blacks’ 22, running it down their throats from a possession that started well inside their own half.
Ireland have become rugby’s most clinical side with possession, running their phase play shapes with precision and accuracy that no other team can. They use well-constructed running lines to create space and rarely push the pass in contact.
As a result, the All Blacks’ passive defence was effectively a doormat and could not slow down the Irish roll once the phase counts got high.
Ireland have realised that they can play at a higher tempo than New Zealand, and as such will likely play that way again.
The All Blacks pack may need to find more turnovers to combat Ireland’s clinical handling. That means forcing them, rather than waiting for them to occur, which are a rarity.
The Leinster-dominant pack is incredibly powerful and skilled, allowing Ireland to benefit from their pre-made chemistry formulated at club level.
Despite much debate over the back row selections, captain Sam Cane, when healthy, is going to start at openside, and Ardie Savea will be at No 8.
Alongside Scott Barrett, Hoskins Sotutu and Tom Christie, Savea has the equal most turnovers of any New Zealand forward in Super Rugby Pacific (10), which includes five at the breakdown.
No player is more effective at turnovers in contact when in-form than Akira Ioane. If the Blues blindside is healthy and back in top form, playing Ioane at No 6 gives the All Blacks a back row contingent that can generate a healthy number of turnovers.
The All Blacks need Ioane to be the disruptive force in defence that rips the ball out, drive ball carriers sideways and create headaches for an attack. Ireland cannot have front foot ball and quick recycle so easily like they did in November.
In his brief international career so far, Ioane has bullied the Wallabies with blockbusting running, but if he can have the similar impact on the other side of the ball against top tier teams, he will be far more valuable.
Despite being one of the form players in the competition, Blues captain Dalton Papalii will be best used off the bench for impact in the last half hour or so, with Cane taking the starting job.
The second row combination of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock is one of the best of all-time, but the age factor cannot be ignored as their effectiveness around the park started to wane last year. It is just part-and-parcel of being older and slower.
When asked to carry, it is not uncommon to see either of them get dominated these days. Defensively, passive tackle completions give the opposition quick ball. Against Ireland and France, they were not imposing enough.
However, without Whitelock, New Zealand’s lineout struggled in the tests against South Africa, with Retallick and Scott Barrett in the second row.
The calls were bad, even when securing the ball. They did not adjust to the Springboks’ tactics the way the Wallabies did when they outsmarted the South Africans.
It is clear that Whitelock is integral to running the set piece, but, around the park, the 33-year-old does not have as much impact as others.
Scott Barrett has a higher tackle completion and has generated more turnovers than both of them combined this season, but discipline remains an issue.
On form, Blues lock James Tucker has been outstanding, but won’t have a high chance of selection given the early blooding of Josh Lord and Tupou Vaa’i.
If Patrick Tuipulotu is available after his Japanese sabbatical, he would be a valuable asset to bring into the game with Scott Barrett.
With Retallick and Whitelock in the starting side, more is required from the front row to add some sting into the tight five unit.
At hooker, the option that would give the All Blacks the most punch in defence is Blues rake Kurt Eklund, which is a bold call as few are likely to give him a shot.
He has made 112 tackles at a 93 percent completion rate, with just nine misses whilst generating eight turnovers, six of them at the breakdown from 22 ruck contests. He has only given away two penalties from those 22 ruck contests.
On every defensive metric, Eklund has been better than incumbent Codie Taylor and adds turnover-generating potential.
Samisoni Taukei’aho is one of the most damaging runners in the competition, with the third-highest post-contact metre average of any forward. His 0.7 post-contact metres per carry is higher than that of Brumbies No 8 Rob Valetini (0.6m).
Taukei’aho is the perfect player to bring into a game off the bench and provide impact with the carry to form a one-two punch with Eklund, a solid defensive option who is currently bringing a lot more to the table than Taylor, whose uncharacteristic errors made him one of the worst All Blacks performers last year.
Of course, the most important part of playing hooker is throwing, and both Eklund and Taukei’aho would need to operate the lineout at a very high level against the likes of Ireland’s jumpers Iain Henderson, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan and Caelen Doris.
In the propping stocks, Ofa Tuungafasi, Nepo Laulala, and Angus Ta’avao all add size and heavy hitting to the mix, but Alex Hodgman and Ethan de Groot are perhaps more mobile, industrious loosehead options with Joe Moody out through injury.
Tuungafasi is pretty much guaranteed to start at tighthead prop, but whichever way the All Blacks go with their front row, Ireland will likely have an advantage there with a very strong and mobile unit in Tadgh Furlong, Ronan Kelleher, and Andrew Porter.
If you want New Zealand’s best performing scrum, it is an all-Blues front row you need with Hodgman/Laulala, Eklund and Tuungafasi. They have the highest dominant scrum percentage of all the Kiwi teams at 31 per cent while conceding the fewest scrum penalties.
In the midst of New Zealand’s winter, playing conditions in night tests at Eden Park and Sky Stadium will be cold and dewey, although Dunedin will host the second test on a dry, indoor track which will suit the tempo that Ireland want to play at.
If the All Blacks defence fails to disrupt and steal Irish ball in this series, Ireland will be buoyed. At the very least, there will be tight, absorbing test matches.
The more turnovers the All Blacks can generate, the most chances they have to spark the counter-attacking game that big test matches have been starved of.
Stopping Ireland starts with taking their control of the game away, which they have through holding the ball for long periods of time, and that means selecting a pack that takes the ball away as much as possible.
Comments on RugbyPass
Also, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
39 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
39 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
39 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to comments