Re-building the All Blacks pack to reverse the last result against Ireland
In the 29-20 loss to Ireland in Dublin last November, the All Blacks were put under enormous strain as the Irish boldly chased tries and held the ball for long periods with consistency.
As a result, Ian Foster’s side had few opportunities from turnover ball and were lacklustre with ball in hand when they had it.
It took less than two minutes for the Irish attack to breach the All Blacks’ 22, running it down their throats from a possession that started well inside their own half.
Ireland have become rugby’s most clinical side with possession, running their phase play shapes with precision and accuracy that no other team can. They use well-constructed running lines to create space and rarely push the pass in contact.
As a result, the All Blacks’ passive defence was effectively a doormat and could not slow down the Irish roll once the phase counts got high.
Ireland have realised that they can play at a higher tempo than New Zealand, and as such will likely play that way again.
The All Blacks pack may need to find more turnovers to combat Ireland’s clinical handling. That means forcing them, rather than waiting for them to occur, which are a rarity.
The Leinster-dominant pack is incredibly powerful and skilled, allowing Ireland to benefit from their pre-made chemistry formulated at club level.
Despite much debate over the back row selections, captain Sam Cane, when healthy, is going to start at openside, and Ardie Savea will be at No 8.
Alongside Scott Barrett, Hoskins Sotutu and Tom Christie, Savea has the equal most turnovers of any New Zealand forward in Super Rugby Pacific (10), which includes five at the breakdown.
No player is more effective at turnovers in contact when in-form than Akira Ioane. If the Blues blindside is healthy and back in top form, playing Ioane at No 6 gives the All Blacks a back row contingent that can generate a healthy number of turnovers.
The All Blacks need Ioane to be the disruptive force in defence that rips the ball out, drive ball carriers sideways and create headaches for an attack. Ireland cannot have front foot ball and quick recycle so easily like they did in November.
In his brief international career so far, Ioane has bullied the Wallabies with blockbusting running, but if he can have the similar impact on the other side of the ball against top tier teams, he will be far more valuable.
Despite being one of the form players in the competition, Blues captain Dalton Papalii will be best used off the bench for impact in the last half hour or so, with Cane taking the starting job.
The second row combination of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock is one of the best of all-time, but the age factor cannot be ignored as their effectiveness around the park started to wane last year. It is just part-and-parcel of being older and slower.
When asked to carry, it is not uncommon to see either of them get dominated these days. Defensively, passive tackle completions give the opposition quick ball. Against Ireland and France, they were not imposing enough.
However, without Whitelock, New Zealand’s lineout struggled in the tests against South Africa, with Retallick and Scott Barrett in the second row.
The calls were bad, even when securing the ball. They did not adjust to the Springboks’ tactics the way the Wallabies did when they outsmarted the South Africans.
It is clear that Whitelock is integral to running the set piece, but, around the park, the 33-year-old does not have as much impact as others.
Scott Barrett has a higher tackle completion and has generated more turnovers than both of them combined this season, but discipline remains an issue.
On form, Blues lock James Tucker has been outstanding, but won’t have a high chance of selection given the early blooding of Josh Lord and Tupou Vaa’i.
If Patrick Tuipulotu is available after his Japanese sabbatical, he would be a valuable asset to bring into the game with Scott Barrett.
With Retallick and Whitelock in the starting side, more is required from the front row to add some sting into the tight five unit.
At hooker, the option that would give the All Blacks the most punch in defence is Blues rake Kurt Eklund, which is a bold call as few are likely to give him a shot.
He has made 112 tackles at a 93 percent completion rate, with just nine misses whilst generating eight turnovers, six of them at the breakdown from 22 ruck contests. He has only given away two penalties from those 22 ruck contests.
On every defensive metric, Eklund has been better than incumbent Codie Taylor and adds turnover-generating potential.
Samisoni Taukei’aho is one of the most damaging runners in the competition, with the third-highest post-contact metre average of any forward. His 0.7 post-contact metres per carry is higher than that of Brumbies No 8 Rob Valetini (0.6m).
Taukei’aho is the perfect player to bring into a game off the bench and provide impact with the carry to form a one-two punch with Eklund, a solid defensive option who is currently bringing a lot more to the table than Taylor, whose uncharacteristic errors made him one of the worst All Blacks performers last year.
Of course, the most important part of playing hooker is throwing, and both Eklund and Taukei’aho would need to operate the lineout at a very high level against the likes of Ireland’s jumpers Iain Henderson, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan and Caelen Doris.
In the propping stocks, Ofa Tuungafasi, Nepo Laulala, and Angus Ta’avao all add size and heavy hitting to the mix, but Alex Hodgman and Ethan de Groot are perhaps more mobile, industrious loosehead options with Joe Moody out through injury.
Tuungafasi is pretty much guaranteed to start at tighthead prop, but whichever way the All Blacks go with their front row, Ireland will likely have an advantage there with a very strong and mobile unit in Tadgh Furlong, Ronan Kelleher, and Andrew Porter.
If you want New Zealand’s best performing scrum, it is an all-Blues front row you need with Hodgman/Laulala, Eklund and Tuungafasi. They have the highest dominant scrum percentage of all the Kiwi teams at 31 per cent while conceding the fewest scrum penalties.
In the midst of New Zealand’s winter, playing conditions in night tests at Eden Park and Sky Stadium will be cold and dewey, although Dunedin will host the second test on a dry, indoor track which will suit the tempo that Ireland want to play at.
If the All Blacks defence fails to disrupt and steal Irish ball in this series, Ireland will be buoyed. At the very least, there will be tight, absorbing test matches.
The more turnovers the All Blacks can generate, the most chances they have to spark the counter-attacking game that big test matches have been starved of.
Stopping Ireland starts with taking their control of the game away, which they have through holding the ball for long periods of time, and that means selecting a pack that takes the ball away as much as possible.
Comments on RugbyPass
NZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
22 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
22 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
22 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
22 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
22 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
22 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to comments