Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 9 Tips: Hurricanes or Chiefs?
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Round 8 was another near-perfect week for Super Rugby tipping genius Paul Neazor. For the second week in a row the Reds were the only team who tripped him up, losing to the Bulls. Still, 6/7 takes his season tally to 47/62 and brings Paul’s success percentage up to a commendable 76%. Here are his picks for Round 9.
Highlanders vs Sharks
Playing at home has always been an advantage in this fixture. These days, when it means playing under the Dunedin roof or in the steamy Durban autumn heat, that applies more than ever. The Sharks haven’t impressed in recent weeks, apart from their tackling – and that is all that has been keeping them in games. They defend bash-bash-bash well enough, but lightning raids like those the Highlanders make could be a different threat altogether. The visitors don’t offer much through the backs; the home side lives on the skill of its rearguard. The home side will be at short odds to win and probably win well, although games at Forsyth Barr are often closer than you might expect. I’m having the Highlanders, and I think they may do it with something in hand.
Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)
Rebels vs Cheetahs
A couple of weeks ago some were starting to wonder if the Rebels weren’t, in fact, a playoff team. Well, they’re not – the Highlanders and Hurricanes have pointed that out. A couple of weeks ago the Cheetahs were being bagged as hopeless; now they’re the talk of the town for scoring close to 100 points in one match. What we have is a battle between two lower-mid table outfits who can and do have good days, but who should be (and usually are) beaten by the big teams. The Rebels have been beating sides they can impose their game plan on, and the Cheetahs should be in that category.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)
Sunwolves vs Jaguares
The good news is that one of these teams will end a long losing streak this weekend. The Sunwolves look likely to make my pre-season forecast of 0-15 come true, and the Jaguares should be 30 points the better team.
Pick: Jaguares (13 and over)
Hurricanes vs Chiefs
This is the game of the round without any question, and could well be a preview of a playoff fixture down the track. The Chiefs are the hot hands at the moment, showcasing several of the competition’s most talked-about players (Damian McKenzie, Aaron Cruden, Charlie Ngatai, James Lowe), while the Hurricanes also have a few who are getting the tongues wagging. Interestingly almost all of them are backs, yet it could well be a forward – the Chiefs’ Michael Leitch – who has the biggest influence on the outcome. His mates follow where he leads, and the backs can do their thing because the forwards do theirs so well. I’m really looking forward to this one, but in the end I’m picking the Chiefs might be that little bit better in enough places to claim what will be a very hard-earned win.
Pick: Chiefs (12 and under)
Force vs Waratahs
If we can expect the Wellington match to be one of the best of the year, this stacks up as one of the season’s most missable games. Neither side is playing well at the moment, both are making errors, neither packs much scoring punch, and worst of all, almost everyone who plays against the Force fumbles and bumbles even more than usual. In all honesty the Waratahs should win this game – but they should have beaten the Rebels on their own patch, too.
Pick: Waratahs (12 and under)
Stormers vs Reds
After last weekend, when both teams lost to demonstrably superior sides, this match becomes quite important in the overall scheme of things. The Reds are improving (yes, I did think they might upset the Bulls) while the Stormers are battling just a little without Eben Etzebeth, who was in rare form before his injury. But the Stormers do have the security of a particularly powerful set piece, even if the Reds are no mugs at the scrum in particular. It’s just that the home side has lived by this particular sword for about ten years, seldom playing much adventurous rugby but doing enough to beat sides that can’t force them to break that stranglehold. I think the Reds will fall into that category, and therefore pick the Stormers.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
Kings vs Lions
A couple of years back these two sides were considered about equal; they had to play a promotion-relegation series in 2013 to see which one would be in Super Rugby the next year. But the Lions have moved on at a rapid pace since returning to the fold while the Kings have stagnated, and this one should be easy – unless the Lions go against the grain, and take their hosts lightly. If that happens, the Lions will still win, but if they concentrate, they’ll win by heaps.
Pick: Lions (13 and over)
Brumbies vs Crusaders
Okay, time to prove a point. Or make a statement. Or bloody another pretender’s nose. The second of two matches that really capture the imagination this week, the Sunday game is probably more important to the Brumbies because if they can win it, they’ll be so far out in front in Australia that daylight will be second. If the Crusaders win it will be a real statement of intent from the New Zealand conference and a warning for the Wallabies, whether admitted or not. And it will keep the Crusaders in prime challenging position for top spot and home field, with all the attendant benefits. Given the strength of the New Zealand conference, one small slip even now might be fatal. I’m not picking that the Crusaders will slip. They have a decent record at Canberra and a better one this season – even if they don’t play well, they’re finding ways to win. It will be easier if Richie Mo’unga can kick his goals, but even so I think the visitors will take it out.
Pick: Crusaders (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
In the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getitng to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
5 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
7 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
5 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
7 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
54 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
54 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
7 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
54 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
54 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
54 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
18 Go to comments