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Jean de Villiers: ‘Next year will be the acid test for this group’
By Jon Newcombe
Rugby Championship winners for the first time since 2019, unbeaten on a European tour for the first time in 11 years – the Springboks have hardly put a foot wrong in 2024.
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A year bookended by wins over Wales brought 11 victories out of 13 in total, with the Springboks’ only defeats coming by a point at home to second-ranked Ireland (24-25) and away to a resurgent Argentina (28-29).
Rassie Erasmus’ team scored 57 tries and averaged 34.6 points per game, despite a change to the coaching set-up and multiple changes of personnel, often from one Test to another.
For Springbok legend Jean de Villiers, the challenge will be maintaining those sky-high standards during another period of transition, which will see the world champions head to New Zealand, twice, in The Rugby Championship. Trips to France and Ireland have also been mooted for the end of year tour.
“Jacques Nienaber gone, Tony Brown in, Jerry Flannery in, there is always a way there might be a different performance but we haven’t seen that, and it’s not as if we have played poor teams this year,” de Villiers says in the latest episode of Boks Office.
“Two losses, each by one point, playing Ireland at home, The Rugby Championship and winning that, the end-of year tour … so I think the transition from back-to-back world champs to this year has been pretty smooth. But now the standard is very high. And I think next year will be the acid test for this group.”
Realistically many of the players involved in the clean sweep of Autumn wins over England, Scotland and Wales will be well retired by the time the next Rugby World Cup takes place in Australia in 2027.
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Two-thirds of the starting XV that beat New Zealand in 2023 final will be 35 or over at the start of the next tournament. All five of the players that will be under 35 are backs, so it’s the pack that needs the biggest overhaul, unless some of the veterans such as two-time World Rugby Men’s Player of the Year Pieter-Steph du Toit can defy old father time.
Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Handrè Pollard and Cheslin Kolbe are the five still in with a chance of being around, although for the three outside backs especially, it’ll be a push.
With that in mind, Rassie Erasmus hasn’t wasted any time in blooding new talent in 2024 with Cameron Hanekom the 51st player (49 before the Autumn) to be given an opportunity after stepping off the bench in last weekend’s 45-12 win over Wales.
Of the newcomers, fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has played the most – eight caps and 55 points scored – and has looked totally at ease at the highest level, while full-back Aphelele Fassi’s return to favour, and form, was arguably the comeback story of the year.
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Sat beside de Villiers on the Boks Office sofa, 2004 World Rugby Player of the year Schalk Burger says it is incumbent for the new group to kick on and go to the next World Cup with the right level of exposure to Test rugby. For Willie Le Roux, who turned 35 in August, that could spell trouble as he looks to get the two caps he needs to reach the magic 100-cap mark.
“We had 51 players this year, that’s immense, the amount of players we’ve given opportunities to,” remarks Burger.
“Often there is a guy who blows everyone out of the water and Rassie will take him with six, seven, eight nine or 10 caps. But it’s for all of those players to get to 20/25 caps, so that when he is still a young player at the next World Cup he is not really young (in terms of experience),” Burger says.
“Unfortunately for the older generation of players, not all of them are going to make it. So that transition will happen more and more. You will see a natural progression as we’ve seen with Fassi’s performances this year versus Willie (Le Roux). I think in an ideal world we wanted to have Willie at 100, but he’s in the nervous 90s, 98 not out.
“We’ve got Damian de Allende, who is our rock at number 12, but think next year if you experiment a bit and you go Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu at 10, Damian Willemse at 12, you maybe even try a Canan Moodie at 13 – there are so many options we have got – and you’re trying to build depth in case Damian de Allende gets injured.”
For Burger, the smart evolution of the squad is summed up well by the situation at 10, where once contenders to replace Pollard appeared to be thin on the ground.
“We were sitting in this environment thinking who is the next 10 behind Handrè Pollard and all of a sudden now you see Mannie (Libbok), now you see Jordan (Hendrikse), now you see Sacha – Damian Willemse played not too long ago there. The options are there which is such a healthy position for us to be in.”
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It seems to me that a core of players will make it to 2027 if they stay fit. Siya, PSD and Eben are all part of that core. The question is who else? De Allende may not make it which is why Rassie has started playing Am at 12 and has Moodie as his back up at 13. Also Esterhuizen is an established 12 already in the mix. Even Pollard has played 12 so Rassie keeping all his options open. Willemse can play 12 but his defence is sometimes lacking. Mgomezulu can also play there and he is a good physical player who makes his tackles. De Allende though is so hard to replace. He tackles, he turns over, runs over players and he distributes. Rassie is making plans for all positions in a similar way. At tighthead and loosehead we have seen the Bok depth this year with injuries to multiple players and yet the scrum stood strong and dominated. At hooker he has used 4 or 5 different players. Bongi will not likely make 2027 but the young guys are coming through. Willie has been tapped as a future coach and right now is a player coach. His swansong will come next year but Fassi is now a solid option at 15 to complement Damian and challenge him. At wing there is endless depth right now. In the loose forwards there are already some established options for 2027 and Louw has now stepped up with Hanekom coming through. At lock injuries to multiple players saw Nortje step up and Moerat is now an established player. Ruan Venter also a good back up and some good youngsters coming through at the Bulls. Springboks finding solutions but question is will this squad be experienced enough come 2027. Lots of change still to come and lots of learnings still to be had for many of these young players.
Kolisi, du Toit, and Etzebeth may well make 2027, but if they do they will be a long way past their best. Rassie doesn't seem to have a huge amount of faith in Ruan Venter, or (bizarrely) in Hanekom. Nortjé looks great, but while Moerat and Louw have put in some good performances they look a little way off the standard set by the players they would need to replace. Before the July tests SA fans were telling me that B-J Dixon was a like for like replacement for PSDT, which has since been proven to be nonsense. SA have good depth, but Nortjé is the only new player who has really cemented a spot in the 23, and they urgently need others to step up.
In the backs I think de Allende is more likely to make 2027 than Am, given how much Am's form has dropped off since 2021, but neither of them are going to be at their best. Mngomezulu, Moodie, Fassi, and Willemse will probably all be great in 2027. Arendse, Kolbe, Esterhuizen, & Kriel will all be slightly past their best, but at least a couple of them will still be test quality, so there shouldn't be any issues there. The problems Rassie is going to have will be less about whether they have the personnel available, and more about whether they are able to tactically adapt to life without a world class big crash-ball 12 (Esterhuizen and de Allende might be able to play the role in 2027, but they won't be world class) and without world class zippy poachers on the wing (Kolbe and Arendse might still be playing good rugby in 2027, but its hard to believe they'll be running in the same kind of tries that they are now). Its possible that Tony Brown's attacking system is intended partly to overcome these issues (loose forwards in the wide channels might serve as replacements for de Allende, and quick ruck ball will allow tries to be built over multiple phases instead of relying on moments of genius from Arendse and Kolbe), but there might still be a period of adjustment going in to 2027.
In the front three I think Steenekamp is a great find, and Thomas du Toit has finally emerged as a world class player after years of relative mediocrity, but hooker is still a problem. Grobbelaar looks fine, I guess, but he's not Mbonambi, which is what SA will need him to be by 2027.