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Heineken Champions Cup Predictor: Big Jim vs the RPI

By Jim Hamilton
John Cooney celebrates a try against Harlequins in the Champions Cup. (Photo by Alex Davidson/Getty Images)

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Heineken Champions Cup predictor: It’s another big European weekend, with most of the teams running out across the continent still with a lot to play for.

Here are my predictions for the 10 Round 5 matches and we’ve compared them to how the RugbyPass Index (RPI) is predicting each game.

Pool 1

Leinster vs Lyon

Lyon are now out and Leinster will top the group. I predict a bonus-point win for Leinster who are the form team in Europe right now, with Exeter the only other side on 19 points going into these matches.

Leinster by 15

The RPI:

Heineken Champions Cup predictor

Northampton vs Benneton

As much as I like Benneton Treviso, Europe is too much of an ask for them. Northampton are one of the form teams in the Premiership (which they will focus on now).

Northampton by 10

The RPI:

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Pool 2

La Rochelle vs Sale

Both teams are effectively down and out. France is always a tough place to play. Glasgow had a good win down there earlier in the group. Sale had a big win in the Premiership last week and all their focus is probably on the Premiership and resting front line players.

La Rochelle by 8

The RPI says:

Heineken Champions Cup predictor

Glasgow vs Exeter

Difficult one to call. What team will Glasgow put out at Scotstoun? Exeter are the joint form team in Europe on 19 points with Leinster who are on 19 points in pool 1. The Chiefs are very motivated and want to make a statement.

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Exeter by 5.

The RPI says:

Heineken Champions Cup predictor

Pool 3

Bath vs Quins

A complete dead rubber.

Quins by 5

The RPI says:

Heineken Champions Cup predictor

Clermont vs Ulster

Game of the weekend. The Parc des Sports Marcel Michelin is one of the toughest places to play in Europe. One point separates them. Ulster won the match between them at Ravenhill and are flying at the minute on all fronts.

Clermont by 6.

 

Pool 4

Ospreys vs Saracens

Poor Ospreys. AWJ is back which will help. This is a defining match for Saracens. If they win this with a bonus point they will be in a position to qualify – and in the knock-out stages they have the squad to go all they way. Can you imagine?

Saracans by 15

The RPI says:

Racing vs Munster

Racing top the pool and Munster still have a chance so this will be a good one. Simon Zebo and Donnacha Ryan are up against their old club again. Finn Russell is playing so well and if you remember that ridiculous nut-meg to score in the game between them earlier in the group, I’m telling you: he will try that again.

Racing by 10

The RPI says:

Pool 5

Connacht vs Toulouse

Toulouse are unbeaten in Europe. We will see what they are made of this weekend. Connacht have giant killer performances in them and I would not be surprised if they beat Toulouse.

Tough one… f*** it:

Connacht by 5

The RPI says:

Gloucester vs Montpellier

Not much to say here. Disappointed with Montpellier. Love Gloucester but Europe’s gone.

Gloucester by 8

The RPI says:

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Trevor 2 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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B
Bull Shark 6 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

Of the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.

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