Glasgow Warriors' slow, distressing drift away from rugby's top table
Like great performers leaving the stage one by one, the eye-watering list of Glasgow departures grows by the season. Since the last World Cup, Warriors have lost Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Alex Dunbar, Mark Bennett, Josh Strauss and Leone Nakarawa.
They will lose Dave Rennie to Australia in the summer and this week, suffered the public gut-punch of Jonny Gray’s near-certain exit, swiftly followed by more uncertainty over the future of Nick Grigg, one of their most effective players in the Rennie era.
No-one expects Glasgow to cling on to these guys forever. Nor are they demanding that Beauden Barrett, Manu Tuilagi and Cheslin Koble be shipped in to replace them. But what they do ask is a certain ambition in their signings, a purpose that befits an established Pro14 heavyweight.
There’s a level of expectancy now, a standard set by league finals and European quarter-finals and relentless sell-out crowds. The fans turn up over and over and there’s a growing angst that their faith – and money – is not being reflected in their team’s recruitment. A bitterness too is beginning to fester as along the M8, Edinburgh hold on to their biggest hitters while Glasgow continually lose theirs.
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In Adam Hastings, Warriors had a fabulous Scottish replacement for Russell, who left for Racing 92 in the summer of 2018, but his capture and rapid development is the exception rather than the rule.
They have never found an adequate ball-carrying successor to Strauss – Samu Vunisa and Tevita Tameilau were hardly seen and delivered little. Few of the procession of talented centres have been as impressive as Dunbar and Bennett at their best. They have done well to get Nakarawa back, but only for five months and only because of the freakish circumstances under which he suddenly became a free agent. They are relying on Ruaridh Jackson and Tommy Seymour to plug the Hogg gap – both are fine players, but each is over 30 and neither is a full-back by trade.
If one gets crocked, particularly Seymour, they’re in trouble. If Hastings suffers any kind of serious damage, they’re in a whole world of hurt. The other fly-halves on Glasgow’s books are sound in the relative tranquillity of the early Pro14 matches, but you wouldn’t want to depend on any of them in the savagery of the Champions Cup or league play-offs.
Then there is the uneasy replacement of Rennie, Danny Wilson being moved from his role as Scotland forwards specialist to take over the head coach’s position. Regardless of your opinion of Wilson – and he did a tremendous job at Wales Under-20s then Cardiff Blues – the aesthetics of his appointment are not good. At a time when Glasgow are bigger than ever, eager to expand their stadium and in need of some seriously good additions, it looks like Scottish Rugby have taken the easiest and cheapest option, shunting across a bloke who is already on their books, whose performance in his current job does not proffer a rousing endorsement of his credentials, and who would need a sizeable pay-off were he to be let go.
A number of clubs are currently pursuing the no-nonsense Glasgow centre.
– writes @JLyall93 https://t.co/zlmmCgSM0t
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 2, 2020
That business is unsettling, but far more alarming is the absence of burgeoning Scots raring to seize first-team berths. The brilliant, ravenous home-grown core that propelled Glasgow to the Pro12 title in 2015 will be all-but gone come the end of the season. Where is the next lot? Where is the depth and breadth of emerging players? Matt Fagerson, Stafford McDowall and Scott Cummings have been around for a couple of seasons and there are very high hopes for Jamie Dobie, but beneath them, the outlook is not encouraging.
Scotland’s Under-20s lost all but one of their Six Nations matches and took such a pasting in the Junior World Championship that they were eliminated from the tournament and consigned to the second-tier Trophy next time around. In five matches, all of them defeats, they shipped 197 points – an average of over 39 per game – and were beaten by both Georgia and Fiji, the latter putting eight tries past them. Of course, there are fine players in that group, but we’ve scarcely seen any of them exposed to the brutality of the professional game.
As much as Scottish Rugby cannot clog up its two pro-teams with imports, there needs to be a supplementary sprinkling of overseas talent. These players bring competition, vital experiences from different – and often superior – rugby cultures and environments and are generally available when an army of Scotland internationals disappear on Test duty twice a season.
When Glasgow won that Pro12 title, they laced their Scottish heart with highly influential foreigners, Nakarawa, Strauss, DTH van der Merwe, Niko Matawalu and Sean Maitland all adding telling value.
When Edinburgh got to the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup eight years ago – again, with an overwhelmingly Scottish team – they had the ballast of Sean Cox, the outstanding Netani Talei and the ruthless finishing of not-yet-Scottish-qualified Tim Visser.
This balance is key. No-one expects Glasgow to do away with their focus on developing Scottish players and eventually, inevitably, losing the best of them. They have kept hold of Fagerson, Hastings and George Horne on what will be significantly better terms than their academy deals, and spent a decent whack on re-signing Fraser Brown and Huw Jones.
But right now, with virtually no chance of Champions Cup progression, sitting fourth in Pro14 Conference A having suffered five defeats in nine matches and played two games more than the Cheetahs directly above them, they are paying a heavy price for their recruitment.
Confirmed. https://t.co/nTrRyUGrdE
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 2, 2020
Of the seven players who arrived this season, only Aki Seuili has made a tangible impact, and the prop has been in the country less than two months. The rest have been World Cup squad fodder or in the case of Jale Vakaloloma, raw and injured. There has been neither a marquee signing to quicken pulses, nor an injection of new and invigorating impetus.
The worry now is that a pool of undoubtedly talented players is stagnating and that Glasgow’s season is in grave danger of flat-lining. Nakarawa might be able to apply the defibrillators, but keeping him beyond the summer will be fiendishly difficult.
Behind the scenes, some vigorous scouting and signing work is well under way – and boy, is it needed. The back-row will be beefed up with the addition of some hulking ball-carriers a priority. Getting a recognised full-back in the building is another.
A new, somewhat unfancied coach; a bigger stadium, an increasingly disgruntled fan base and a squad in need of major surgery – these are seismic months in Glasgow’s quest to preserve the lofty status they worked so hard to acquire.
Comments on RugbyPass
Sinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
1 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
11 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
11 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
11 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
11 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
2 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
2 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to comments